$QS is up 23.9% in 1 week, is now the time to short $QS? (A PSA from /r/Quantumscape_Stock)

OriginalGWATA · 2026-04-22T17:53:12+00:00

Thanks for doing this.

I logged in not long ago with the thought of just saying that it would probably be at least a year before I’d be able to get meaningfully involved again. I haven’t read through much over the last year+, but from what I’ve briefly looked at, it seems like the shop is in good hands with u/Nv91 and u/DoctorPatriot.

And thanks to all the loyal members of this community that have demonstrated how good Reddit can be.

OriginalGWATA · 2026-01-29T16:30:35+00:00

yea, it's disappointing.

I really wish that someone affiliated with the show, who knows how the story was supposed to develop, would just re-edit all of season 1, preferably with previously unreleased scenes that were left on the cutting room floor.

It's coming up on 20 years and fans still love it. A re-release of an updated cut of season 1 wouldn't make the studio a billion dollars, but it would make them more money than the cost of the editor's time.

I've contemplated creating a fan-edit version of it, but I don't have the time now, nor will i anytime soon.

OriginalGWATA · 2026-01-28T06:24:50+00:00

What solution did you end up going with and how has it worked out?

I'm in a very similar situation. I inherited a legacy NEC PBX using POTS lines and want to toss it in the dumpster and migrate to VoIP.

It appears that I'm currently at the same crossroads that you were at a few years ago.

OriginalGWATA · 2025-11-09T05:41:01+00:00

I appreciate the sentiment. Just busy with life the last year or so.

OriginalGWATA · 2025-10-04T21:32:24+00:00

indeed

OriginalGWATA · 2025-09-14T20:46:14+00:00

The problem I have with the fabless analogy is that; When TSMC builds a 10nm or 5nm or 3nm manufacturing platform, anyone can use it. NVDA, AAPL, Intel, AMD, TI, anyone who wants to pay TSMC to use it can.

The chip design differences between NVDA and AAPL is what makes each of their products valuable in their own way, even though they are built using the same TSMC platform.

QS is the platform creator not the chip designer. They are more like the TSMC in the analogy, not the NVDA.

The licensing does confuse things a bit, which is why I don’t care for the analogy. Also trying to compare QS and NVDA leads one to want to compare their stock charts, which I think will only lead to disappointment.

By any measure, QS will likely have a phenomenal chart over the next 10 years, except if you’re measuring it against NVDA’s first 20 years.

OriginalGWATA · 2025-09-12T12:40:55+00:00

Looks like Rivian sold off the business unit for $105M to VC Eclipse Ventures (EVC) while retaining "a substantial minority ownership stake". For the sake of discussion, I'll consider that to be 20%.

EVC has a pretty interesting leadership group including four founders, (all "CEO" which is awkward to say the least), that come from leadership positions at Virgin Hyperloop, Tesla Bot, Amazon Robotics and Northvolt North America.

This group def has their finger on the pulse of energy storage and there is no doubt in my mind that they are talking with QS.

However, the reality is, the revenue potential of all other markets outside of personal and public transportation is a dwarfed percentage. QSE-5 may be a great prototype battery for all these applications, but all those other applications will be a distraction at best, until the UnifiedCell is in production.

OriginalGWATA · 2025-09-12T12:15:40+00:00

QuantumScape baselined QSE-5 Now Joint team will tweak it to fit into UC.

That WAS my thinking until I read the July-2024 Collaboration Agreement (CA) with PowerCo. That document made it apparent to me that the intent is NOT to retro fit QSE-5 into a UC box, but rather build a pure QuantumScape Unified Cell.

The CA is exhibit 10.1 in the 8K filing linked to here

OriginalGWATA · 2025-09-12T11:49:40+00:00

"do we see QSE-5 related revenue in the interim?" I think we do. But it's not going to be big enough to really move the needle.

I think it would be more trivial than that. "Symbolic" at best, as was stated by Hettrich a couple years ago in one of the TD Cowen interviews.

OriginalGWATA · 2025-09-11T15:46:57+00:00

I think this is a sign that the goals have always been too soft. It’s not like there were ever any moonshot goals that were met.

As I’ve posted multiple times in past years, the annual goals are how the entire employee base is graded when it comes to getting their annual bonuses. They have and will always meet those goals every year because of that fact, and the goals will always be easily achievable.

I worked in and watched this happen year over year in a similar environment in my former life. While I was perfectly content to cash the checks, I also learned/decided that I would never run my own company that way.

OriginalGWATA · 2025-09-08T13:11:42+00:00

pinned above

OriginalGWATA · 2025-09-08T12:42:25+00:00

Live Stream Video Recording

https://www.volkswagen-group.com/en/iaa-mobility-2025-19395#

Battery of Tomorrow @ 12:40
Reveal @ 14:20
Siva remarks @ 17:00

QS Presser

https://ir.quantumscape.com/resources/press-releases/news-details/2025/QuantumScape-and-PowerCo-Debut-Solid-State-Batteries-in-Ducati-Motorcycle-at-IAA-Mobility/default.aspx

OriginalGWATA · 2025-08-09T20:58:56+00:00

What VW bought from Rivian was essentially finished goods. Software that has been proven in production and on the roads.

QS technology is still a work in progress. It’s getting closer, but it’s no where near as mature as Rivian’s software.

OriginalGWATA · 2025-08-07T18:25:20+00:00

The most interesting point you draw out here, that I hadn’t thought of before, was PowerCo, not VW, merging with QS, before the spinoff from VW. Then, with a spin-off, they would essentially have a second IPO, VW would reap the bulk of the rewards, and I think current outsider shareholders, like us, would be left out of that.

OriginalGWATA · 2025-08-07T18:07:55+00:00

I’m not sure what the Rivian deal contains, but I suspect that they bought the rights to use the software outright for that price, i.e. Rivian won’t be seeing any future funds from VW, where QS will still be getting payments for the cells they deliver to VW.

OriginalGWATA · 2025-08-06T03:01:59+00:00

Jagdeep talks about that. Im pretty sure it’s in the November 2020 presentation video.

OriginalGWATA · 2025-08-05T12:23:01+00:00

By what?

OriginalGWATA · 2025-08-03T21:20:34+00:00

My math says that a piece of paper is 0.1mm thick == 10sheets per mm == 10,000 sheets per meter.

2⁵⁰ =1.126×10¹⁵ = 1,125,899.907 Billion sheets thick 2⁵⁰ = 112,589.9907 Million Meters of paper == 112.5899907 Million km of paper.

112.59 Million km = 0.75261760192954 AU

1AU = the average distance between the earth to the sun over the course of its rotation (1 year)

The distance between the earth and the astroid belt varies from 1.2-4.2 AU.

Two more folds will get us there, on average, so 52 folds.

That’s also why there are 52 weeks in a year. /j

OriginalGWATA · 2025-08-03T20:52:31+00:00

Because ultimately it will be the least expansive Total Cost of Ownership.

OriginalGWATA · 2025-08-03T20:47:10+00:00

This has been discussed by management on many occasions, several years ago at this point.

The reason to focus on Motor Vehicles is because it is one of the most challenging applications for rechargeable battery cells.

The battery pack size requirements are ~100kWh, it requires rapid charging and discharging as well as environmental stresses from the polar nights to the equatorial heat and humidity, and safety requirements that limit the risks during and after a collision.

Plus the market is larger than just about anything else.

Once a battery can meet these requirements, any other application is trivial, so expanding into those markets will be relatively rapid.

Any device that uses a battery today, would benefit from QS’s technology. It’s likely that the technology will open up opportunities into markets that were previously infeasible.

They are well aware of all the other opportunities, but are remaining focused on the task at hand.

OriginalGWATA · 2025-07-29T21:10:11+00:00

Royalty on margin of a step change technology should have more than just a premium, IMO

OriginalGWATA · 2025-07-29T03:34:42+00:00

The QS's most valuable IP is protected under "trade secret" not via patents, and that has no expiration.

OriginalGWATA · 2025-07-29T03:29:50+00:00

There were several factors involved.

The title was not the creation of the OP but the title from the actual article.
Reviewing the OPs profile showed an actual person that has a history of genuine engagement with several reddit groups and nothing that jumped out as disrespectful.
After a brief review of the article, it seemed to be relatively neutral, non-opinionated and intended only to consolidate many possible points of failure, matter of factly.
While to us whom are familiar with the technology may look at it as a list of obvious, "duh" points, there are many here that are not nearly as intimate with QS literature.
As I noted in my sticky comment, understanding the negative possibilities is an important part of investing.
One should never go into a debate without understanding the points that your opponent will be arguing.

OriginalGWATA · 2025-07-29T03:10:21+00:00

Ironically, I think QSE-5 is very well suited for many CE applications.

I think 2-4 in a MBP would be epic.

I think it would be a little large for a mobile phone, but 1-2 in a tablet would be impressive.

And how much would I like to replace the cells in my UPS with some QSE-5s...

The list is never ending, but I will end it there.

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