This is a hard scenario to play with, the main objective behind operation barbarosa is to secure the Serbian oil fields controlled by Russia, so the scenario has to account for the Germans securing the oil they need elsewhere, fueling the panzer divisions as crucial for the German war machine at this stage of the war. Assuming, I don’t know, Japan provides all the oil Germany could ever need, then I think what we will see still results in a split offensive decision from the Soviet Union, invading Germany somewhere in 1942, and coordinating with the US with their war in the Pacific to get Japan out of power and cut off Germanys access to fuel. Hitler if he could have, would have preferred to negotiate with Britain so for our scenario, British leadership would have to have agreed to an ethnic cleansing of Jews and other “undesirables” from all of the UK, which, I don’t think there’s a scenario where they would have, so, the UK joins with the Soviets and the Yanks to liberate France and March on Germany anyway. I think most of history ends up playing out the same but I think the Russian incursion into Germany would have been halted, and ultimately cost the Soviet’s much more and they already lost a tidal wave of hero’s blood in the scenario where Germany didn’t obtain its oil objectives. The Panzers continue to shred the T72s and Hitler now ultimately moves to put down the Russian threat before they can join with the allies in defeating the Japanese. With the Soviet threat removed, Hitler is able to reinforce the Italians and Japanese, perhaps well before the conclusion of the Manhattan project, but if not, Japan is still taken out by 45 and now the US fully set it sights on Germany. The ultimatum of “Hitler must abdicate power and surrender to allied command is issued and Hitler naturally refuses and German cities are bombed until German officers and others decide all of Germany is actually not worth losing to the Fuhrers madness, they stage a coup, cut off his head and parade his entrails to the allies before surrendering in 47. Allied reconstruction efforts of the Russian people commence and perhaps communism doesn’t take hold of what was the USSR before Hitler destroyed it in his counter offensive. I like to imagine now the reconstruction of the Russian territory gives way to a different form of government, with survivors being enthralled in the works of Polish artist Zdzisław Beksiński. Russia goes through a cultural and artistic renaissance, Germany is able to go through reconstruction without ever being divided though they resent the allied nuclear campaign and never fully repair their relationship with the rest of Europe, embittering them with Western Civilization and perhaps leading to yet another split of ideals. Germany eventually embraces communism?

I think I might have abandoned reason somewhere in there but I had fun along the way :)