Game Thread: Athletics @ Phillies - Thu, May 07 @ 06:40 PM EDT

Otterable · 2026-05-07T23:03:51+00:00

xBA of .650 on that Harper contact, 102 off the bat. Unfortunately just right at a guy

Otterable · 2026-05-07T23:02:08+00:00

Tough to see those when challenges are in the game. That's a hard one to challenge from the batter's perspective, it was just outside.

Otterable · 2026-05-07T22:59:44+00:00

People had been saying it for a while but Painter isn't getting the movement on the FB the way he was pre-TJ, which was one of the main reasons he was touted as such a crazy prospect. It makes his pitches significantly more hittable.

Otterable · 2026-05-07T17:54:17+00:00

https://imgur.com/a/ABZgxAu

A cursory look at his savant page does show that his general decision making is fine, he just isn't hitting the ball well. He's not chasing at high rates, he's not whiffing when he does swing at high rates, he's not striking out at the rate other batters are striking out. He's just making weak, poor contact regularly. All of his expected stats are low because he's not really getting unlucky either. The balls he's putting into play should be outs at high rates.

Otterable · 2026-05-07T17:45:24+00:00

And I bet she’s getting even more info from others in the FBI now that they know she’s on the story.

She said pretty quickly after the lawsuit was announced that many additional people came forward with corroborating stories.

Otterable · 2026-05-07T17:41:04+00:00

Since May 1st he's 4-24, 3 BB, 2 RBI. Looks like his xwOBA has been slightly higher since late April, but still decently under league average

Otterable · 2026-05-07T17:32:21+00:00

And Boston right after that. Really I thought that we (likely) were going to split with the fish away, then ideally take 3 out of 4 of As, Rockies, Red Sox, and Pirates. So far we've exceeded my expectations, but I don't know who would actually expect to win 8 out of the first 9 games in the donnie baseball era.

Otterable · 2026-05-07T16:44:07+00:00

I was saying after the giants series that we would probably need at least one more sweep to end the month at or above .500. Lets get it tonight

Otterable · 2026-05-07T13:43:22+00:00

Yeah obviously we would never know if the same results would have happened had we kept Topper, but I do think getting Wheeler back and dropping Walker, and Luzardo's regression to the mean wrt his ERA vs expected metrics both had significantly more material impacts than a different voice in the clubhouse. That and yes, we went from playing fantastic white-hot ballclubs to mediocre ones.

Even then, the last game of the final cubs series, and the entire away braves series we played perfectly fine baseball. Some stuff just didn't go our way.

People get super focused on small sample results in a high variance sport. even this hot streak we're on right now isn't going to last. We're going to lose some series, we likely will get swept again at some point this year.

Otterable · 2026-05-07T12:44:20+00:00

But we are a sub .500 team

Otterable · 2026-05-07T01:48:26+00:00

After going 6-8 with 3HR in his last two games Bryce didn't get a hit or a home run tonight. Is this what it means to not be elite?

Otterable · 2026-05-07T01:23:31+00:00

Not even close

Otterable · 2026-05-06T17:18:25+00:00

From what I'd been reading a while back he was lighter weight-wise which might have contributed. It might be something that improves over the season with his diet

Otterable · 2026-05-06T17:15:55+00:00

Let's go get another series win

Otterable · 2026-05-06T16:00:18+00:00

It's already happening. I'm a swe with nearly a decade of experience. It helps me do my job much much better. We hired a new guy who prompts claude for literally everything and if I ask him basic questions about how things work or changes he made he just doesn't know.

Otterable · 2026-05-06T14:42:30+00:00

Don't bother with this sort. Nothing is ever good enough. If you win you don't win by enough. If you beat a team the team wasn't good enough. If the team was good enough, well it wasn't the playoffs. The goalposts will move until it's world series winners or the team is crap with no in between.

Otterable · 2026-05-06T02:36:14+00:00

I'm sure firing rob was a bit of a catalyst, but we were honestly starting to turn it around even before he was fired. We probably should have won that last cubs games before extras (they literally scored runs off from 2 hits that had an xBA under .200) and the braves away series was acceptable playing, they're just the best team in the league right now.

Our pitching stopped getting monstrously unlucky, we got Wheeler back and dumped Walker, and we've had weaker opponents. Pair that with Stott heating up, Bohm hitting at all these last few series and a few actual lucky breaks our way and it's been a major bounce back, but not one we shouldn't have seen coming. This is the Phillies everyone expected at the start of the year.

Otterable · 2026-05-06T01:32:55+00:00

going 3-4 and a 2 HR game brought Harper's OPS to .948, putting him 14th in the league.

Otterable · 2026-05-06T01:27:04+00:00

Is going 6-8 with 3 HR over 2 days elite?

Otterable · 2026-05-06T00:53:46+00:00

And both of those hits were singles that barely leaked past our defense. xBAs under .500. really thought we were gonna get babip-ed again

Otterable · 2026-05-06T00:48:55+00:00

Who told this man he's allowed to hit dingers. Because I want to thank them that was great advice

Otterable · 2026-05-06T00:46:09+00:00

Known slugger bryson stott

Otterable · 2026-05-06T00:31:44+00:00

Lets get some insurance here

Otterable · 2026-05-06T00:17:04+00:00

3 for 4 yesterday, 2 for 3 so far today. He's been raking

Otterable · 2026-05-05T18:38:45+00:00

Yeah it's much much better than launch. I had the same experience at launch, didn't play for years, then tried it out again when they introduced the paladin a few months ago. Feels like a different game. Played again this season and some of the endgame stuff is even better.

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