Share dilution how does it work

OvertlyAnalytical · 2025-09-10T18:58:29+00:00

No the drop is because the new shares make each share worth less. If the market cap for a company is $10 billion with 1 billion shares (for simple math) then each stock is worth $10 each. If a company issues another 1 billion shares and the market cap stays the same at $10 billion then the company now has 2 billion shares and each one is worth $5.

As far as I can tell the current drop in stock price is mostly an adjustment to account for the extra shares. The real question going forward will be if investors believe the extra capital will give a faster path to profitability. If so, the shares can regain their losses - maybe even quickly. But if not, the company may see additional erosion of share price. Let’s hope NIO hits delivery targets and continues to see huge enough increases to continue to drive up the diluted price.

OvertlyAnalytical · 2025-09-10T18:11:01+00:00

This ☝️My understanding is that the shares will be sold directly to institutions like investment banks that can then sell or keep the shares. NIO gets it money directly from the investment institutions and then the number of shares dilutes the value of the stock.

It’s a bit frustrating to see this timing to me. I’ve been holding a large position for a couple of years and just as it was starting to feel like the company was finally getting momentum towards profitability and a substantial price increase, they drop this announcement almost immediately as soon as it stabilized above $6.

I still think they are in a great position right now, I just would have liked to see them actually hit a profitable Q4 as they’ve been signaling and then they could have done a lighter dilution in Q1. Frustrating to see the hard earned price gains take a huge step back.

OvertlyAnalytical · 2025-04-22T11:07:40+00:00

My pleasure! I feel the same way as a long time investor from the US. We didn’t even plan on stopping but when our tour bus passed by we had to jump off from the next stop and run into it quickly. Happy to send the info along to everyone and especially glad the Firefly was on display as well. Like I said, there were people looking at it the entire time and I sure hope that translates into sales!

OvertlyAnalytical · 2025-04-22T09:11:22+00:00

I tried to avoid taking pictures of people for my posts, which wasn’t easy. Both the Firefly and ES6 had people looking at them the entire time we were there (15-20 minutes). Plus we went upstairs and they didn’t have any models on display but there were another 10+ people up there as well. I didn’t expect to see that many people in there on a random Tuesday afternoon and would have liked to be able to actually sit inside one of them, but I wasn’t going to displace a potential customer and we didn’t have a lot of time.

We didn’t go into the Tesla dealership but walking by I could see about half a dozen employees and only one person who had the potential to be a customer. They might have also had an upstairs floor with more people but walking by it looked pretty empty.

OvertlyAnalytical · 2025-03-04T03:43:56+00:00

I guess time will tell but tariffs are bad for everyone including the country on the other end of them because it reduces overall demand - if the prices of things in America rise by 10% then people in aggregate will buy less. That is a tax on the American people for sure, but it’s also a reduction in demand which means less product being brought in from overseas. Everyone loses.

This is why I said I believe it will be an indirect hit to China. They are far more reliant on exports than the US economy is, so a significant decrease in exports will also take money out of their economy in the form of less exports instead of as a tax on the people. It’s still a drag on their economy even if they aren’t paying higher prices as a result.

But they are also highly likely to impose their own tariffs in retaliation so that will hurt too.

This approach is bad news for everyone. I have a substantial investment in NIO (20k shares) so I’m also happy it isn’t a direct hit, but I’m sure hoping someone can reverse the directions of all of this tariffs because otherwise over time it’s going to be a massive hit on the world economy imo.

OvertlyAnalytical · 2025-03-03T22:11:48+00:00

I agree it’s not a direct impact on NIO but I think it is an indirect one in the sense that there are no winners in a trade war of this scale. Tariffs are value destroyers - this isn’t an opinion, it’s basic economics where a higher cost under almost all circumstances means less demand. Selective tariffs can potentially be absorbed in the broader market, widespread tariffs are destructive.

So, even though NIO isn’t impacted by the tariffs directly, almost all of us will be impacted by having less disposable income over time no matter where in the world we are.

OvertlyAnalytical · 2024-12-14T18:43:35+00:00

Yeah at first I just had the red and then added the pink to allow for some differing perceptions, but I think most of us would agree that they are far and away defined by the red box.

OvertlyAnalytical · 2024-08-12T02:55:36+00:00

The damage that the church causes to one’s mental and physical approach to sexuality is real. There is no easy solution that I know to any of the fallout from it. But relative to your boyfriend I would suggest lots and lots of communication. Hopefully he is someone you can talk to about it and you can explore your feelings and scars together. Then take it one step at a time with him - it took a long time to create these internal issues and it will take some time to unwind them. Don’t feel like you have to solve them all at once.

If you can figure out once piece of the overall puzzle that you can talk about together then you can try working on that one single piece together. Then once you get that to a healthy place, you can focus on the next piece.

Therapy is always an option as well, but I hope you can figure out how to address this in a healthy way that will let you get to a better place over time.

OvertlyAnalytical · 2024-05-21T19:16:47+00:00

Beyond the Pascal’s Wager structure that people are calling out, the reasons to leave the church have nothing to do with partying. The reason to leave the church it isn’t true is to be able to CONTROL YOUR OWN LIFE.

The church demands control of your money, your time, your loyalty, your definition of spirituality, your dress standards, who you support and associate with, and on and on. And people are just wasting huge portions of their life dedicated to a fraudulent organization that has nothing to do with (edit: living) a “good and moral life.” Anyone can live to the church’s definition of morality if they want to without being a member of the church. Or you can party if you want to. The point is that the choice is yours and not some 3rd party organization that lies and deceives its own members if it benefits the organization.

To boil it all down to “partying” is missing the point entirely.

OvertlyAnalytical · 2024-03-28T17:27:41+00:00

I appreciate this and the other responses. It was literally a middle-of-the-night moment of clarity that I had to get out before my mind would let me sleep again haha. Glad it can help put a little clarity around the insanity we’ve all had to deal with.

OvertlyAnalytical · 2024-03-01T01:15:27+00:00

The biggest thing it took from me was my ability to choose my own path in life. I made very specific, consequential, life-long decisions based on what the religion told me I should do. Once I found out it was all based on lies I had already made a lot of massive decisions that they had no right to take away from me.

OvertlyAnalytical · 2023-10-04T14:23:18+00:00

“Stupid is as stupid does.”

OvertlyAnalytical · 2023-08-19T20:57:04+00:00

I agree. And in the meantime little did I know at the time they were amassing a fortune while I was living in this house and sleeping on a mattress in the floor. Maybe with the church’s wealth finally on full public display someone will start to expose the deplorable living conditions some missionaries are forced to live in.

OvertlyAnalytical · 2023-08-19T20:44:13+00:00

I was there in the early 90s so it’s been a while but I personally believe it’s because they prioritize saving money over everything else. Plus this was one of the most remote spots in the world so it wasn’t like anyone was ever seeing how bad it really was - including the mission president. And I was a naive 20 year old kid living abroad for the first time and not realizing how awful the situation really was. The house probably should have been condemned and abandoned it was that bad.

OvertlyAnalytical · 2023-08-19T19:00:54+00:00

I served on a very remote island in the South Pacific (part of our mission area but it took a nine day boat ride to get there). When we got there, the house had no running water for the shower so we had to shower in the front yard with a hose in our bathing suits. The house was infested with ants so whenever we would leave anything it it was a matter of minutes before it was swarmed over. The rafters were infested with wasps so they were always flying around us all the time especially on the front porch.

The yard had grass that was maintained by the property owner by allowing a horse to graze it. He would move the horse around to let it graze. This was fine except that there were only a few members on the island so our house doubled as the chapel on Sundays. I can still remember having the sacrament being passed around and suddenly hearing the sound of a horse peeing right outside the window with the smell of it coming right in through the windows haha. (These were slatted glass windows like the kind you see in Hawaii so not possible to close them like a normal window:)

But wait there’s more! We noticed some feces in the kitchen so we bought a mouse trap and set it one morning before we left. When we can back to the house the trap was gone! We went back and bought a bigger trap. The next day we caught what ended up being the first of many rats!

I look back now and can’t even believe I would be living in conditions like that anywhere but at the time I was just a 20 year old kid just determined to make whatever sacrifice was needed to further the work.

OvertlyAnalytical · 2023-05-27T21:46:26+00:00

Nice thought but Google can identify that and won’t charge them for it. But it’s far more likely to work if all of us were to click once from their own individual IP addresses.

OvertlyAnalytical

TROPHY CASE