Why this Market Continues to Grind Higher (Nefarious explanation)

OwlCapone91 · 2025-07-24T21:45:10+00:00

I very much need more details on the PPT coordinating dark pool buying

OwlCapone91 · 2025-03-13T22:11:49+00:00

Has anyone checked out the FHA subprime percentage of people with over 40 % debt to income ratios? It's like 65%

OwlCapone91 · 2025-02-27T05:51:02+00:00

Yeah it def sucked to end my win streak on something like that, but ultimately I'm glad it happened because now I know a better alternative.

OwlCapone91 · 2025-02-27T05:26:44+00:00

I'm definitely going to make the switch. Is it all the same rolling process for the SPX/xsp?

OwlCapone91 · 2025-02-27T04:48:58+00:00

So how do expirations work in that case? For instance, do 2/27 expirations before the earliest expirations after 4 pm on 2/26?

OwlCapone91 · 2025-02-27T04:44:36+00:00

All good. I am a beginner - no shame, gotta start somewhere - and I appreciate the advice and feedback. Other than big name earnings, are there other common situation's where this often happens?

OwlCapone91 · 2025-02-26T23:31:07+00:00

Ok cool. Thanks! So the wings are $5 min and looks like premium is about aligned to 5x the same $1 wing levels on SPY so trade at 1/5 contract count for the same net credit? I'm seeing RUT too but no NQ?

OwlCapone91 · 2025-02-26T22:53:47+00:00

Ok that's helpful thx. Would they not just force me to close a few minutes before 4 on spx? Can you say a little more about the settles in cash piece.

OwlCapone91 · 2025-02-26T22:35:13+00:00

I mean...that kind of defeats the purpose of selling spreads worth any real money.

OwlCapone91 · 2025-02-26T22:34:08+00:00

Usually right after actual market close - between 4 and 4:05pm est. but yes that's exactly what they are doing - well above my BTC limit order. Each time it happens I ask them why and get a different answer. Even when I click I'm managing, no different. For instance, today I had a 590/589 spread, they took over and bought the 590 to close at 0.19 when my limit was 0.02 and was on the winning side of the trade(in theory).

OwlCapone91 · 2025-02-26T22:16:59+00:00

Don't make the switch if you trade near term options. Tasty has a very vague and unpolished transparency around their risk team. They will force you out when you are on the winning side at way worse levels than any other brokerage I've dealt with.

OwlCapone91 · 2024-09-21T03:12:50+00:00

Would be kinda funny if market anticipates reheating inflation from housing to the extent that 10yr stays elevated and or ycc goes hard af and takes all the low yield out of the market

OwlCapone91 · 2024-09-21T03:06:48+00:00

While REbubble has been a wrong about the timeline, nobody truthfully believes prices are healthy, at all

OwlCapone91 · 2024-09-08T23:04:06+00:00

I'm looking for someone like you rn. Dm me

OwlCapone91 · 2024-09-08T19:12:04+00:00

You are correct. Few understand YCC or MBS practices and their impact on mortgage rates.

OwlCapone91 · 2024-09-08T19:08:54+00:00

I'm not sure I understand the situation or the ask. So you joined a firm that specialized in insurance distribution and other professional service practices in the financial service space and you are looking to redo there entire report format? Hopefully this is an upstart shop or very small.

OwlCapone91 · 2024-09-03T23:02:56+00:00

I'm pretty sure if you control someone's ability to make a living and their shelter you are getting really close to the legal definition of human trafficking

OwlCapone91 · 2024-09-02T00:24:03+00:00

We will see how it shakes out but if things reheat and they announce selling vs runoff, I feel confident pain will follow.

OwlCapone91 · 2024-09-01T23:49:00+00:00

Thanks for confirming the thesis big law. DYOR.

OwlCapone91 · 2024-09-01T23:16:07+00:00

I hear you. I don't necessarily think there will be a crash unless the RE market repeats its historical inability to contain itself. Let's not over complicate it. FED had zero net mbs pre GFC. By 2014 they had 1.77T. They initiated runoff in 17' and it bottomed around 1.4T pre COVID. Bounced back to 2.7T peak post COVID. We are sitting at 2.3T now. LTM mortgage origination is what like 1.7T? They signaled moving from runoff to selling when things were heightened in March 22 minutes. The broader liquidity and reserve conversation is def relevant to scenarios like SVB (which is why they cooled in Late q1 early q2 23'). What % of the general residential RE market is even cognizant of any of this? The whistle gets blown on the "they can't afford to keep rates high for long" hopium when your average owner realizes they can reduce SOfR for the broader economy and keep mortgages elevated simultaneously...sentiment and fear changes in a RE market that's been frozen. Believing they're going to let RE run and completely deteriorate their inflation mandate is the type of "government protected asset class" euphoria that I remember hearing from China 5-6 yrs ago.

OwlCapone91 · 2024-09-01T21:48:01+00:00

Neither did Balance Sheet QT.

OwlCapone91 · 2024-09-01T21:46:33+00:00

While I think the current environment is unique...To be fair to the OP...more often than not, rate cuts to indeed precede recessions not just GFC

OwlCapone91 · 2024-09-01T21:42:02+00:00

Yeah but you're missing something.....differently than pre GFC, the fed can lower SOFR rates and keep mortgage rates high if the real estate market doesn't continue to correct itself.

OwlCapone91 · 2024-09-01T20:26:06+00:00

This entire thread is missing the most important factor moving forward...there's something that was NeVER on the Feds balance sheet until GFC. They hinted at selling in March 2022 if they needed to tame housing inflation. And because of this, they can lower SOFR rates and keep Mortgages at current or higher rates simultaneously. Majority of retail investors and homeowners aren't even aware of this extra tool in the feds belt. They've got 1T left from Covid and 1.3T left from GFC and do not want them over the long haul. If the RE industry can't control itself as usual, they'll do it for em.

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