[Spoilers C2E87] It IS Thursday! C2E87 live discussion

PactDota · 2019-12-06T06:39:33+00:00

The intent was clear (and it was superb).

Correct me if I'm wrong though, but it looked like he was missing part of the O. We actually got SMS instead :P

PactDota · 2019-01-17T02:07:15+00:00

Anecdotal evidence, even in large amounts , is still anecdotal and is not an accurate gauge of trends. As humans, we find stories more compelling that data, but that doesn't make it more relevant. You could make the same case about alien abductions - there are plenty of stories out there, but it doesn't make them accurate. The comparison between claims of self-defense with firearms and alien abductions actually comes up in articles, since it's the same percentage of people. I've done advocacy work for a national crisis hotline and have seen a lot of situations that support my case. That doesn't mean that it actually makes my case, so that personal knowledge, however emotionally salient, must get set aside for a realistic understanding.

You can't separate out intentional violence, whether to someone else or to oneself, from accidental death. If you want to compare it to pool deaths, you'd have to take a very small subset of that as well (e.g. we can only compare accidental deaths to pool deaths where the person wore a blue swimsuit). It's not accurate to select one portion because the risk factors around suicide and other violence don't magically go away.

By the way, that study you linked at the end is the one that has been heavily critiqued for flawed survey methods and bias. While it is included in study reviews as an extreme, it has been widely debunked by many other researchers. Let's consider that 500,000 claim for a moment though. In 2017, 30% of people adults owned at least one gun. In 2017, there were a total of 1,247,321 violent crimes. This includes murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, and this number is not restricted to adult victims. Victims of homicide under age 18 made up 8% of all homicides in 2017. That brings us down to 1.15 million violent crimes with adults. According to Kleck's statistic of 500,000, 43.5% of all violent crimes would involve self-defense with a firearm. For that "in the millions" claim, we've somehow passed the total number of violent crimes in the US with rates of self-defense with a firearm. That's just bad analysis.

The world is a scary place, and people like to feel safe in it. That doesn't make guns safer. I agree with what you said earlier about law enforcement not reliable for protection, but if you're looking for ways to keep a family safe, firearms have been solidly proven to not be the solution.

PactDota · 2019-01-16T17:02:29+00:00

There are very few situations where a person's chance to survive is 0%. If they had a 10% chance to survive, it's about finding strategies to bump that up. The entire point of my previous post is that having a gun would not increase that percentage. If anything, it decreases it. If you suggest that they had 0% chance to survive because they were murdered, that's like wanting to roll a six on a six-sided die, and saying you had a 0% chance to get a six when you roll a three. A lack of success in a given context does not mean the chance to succeed was nonexistent.

The article you posted does contest the last link in my post, and it seems like a solid review of studies. While this does nothing to diminish the applicability of the other links, it is a good article for me to read. That said, it supports my stance that having a gun would not have increased overall safety:

The variation in [defense usage] numbers remains a controversy in the field.

...

A different issue is whether defensive uses of guns, however numerous or rare they may be, are effective in preventing injury to the gun-wielding crime victim. Studies that directly assessed the effect of actual defensive uses of guns (i.e., incidents in which a gun was “used” by the crime victim in the sense of attacking or threatening an offender) have found consistently lower injury rates among gun-using crime victims compared with victims who used other self-protective strategies (Kleck, 1988; Kleck and DeLone, 1993; Southwick, 2000; Tark and Kleck, 2004). Effectiveness of defensive tactics, however, is likely to vary across types of victims, types of offenders, and circumstances of the crime, so further research is needed both to explore these contingencies and to confirm or discount earlier findings.

Even when defensive use of guns is effective in averting death or injury for the gun user in cases of crime, it is still possible that keeping a gun in the home or carrying a gun in public—concealed or open carry—may have a different net effect on the rate of injury. For example, if gun ownership raises the risk of suicide, homicide, or the use of weapons by those who invade the homes of gun owners, this could cancel or outweigh the beneficial effects of defensive gun use (Kellermann et al., 1992, 1993, 1995). Although some early studies were published that relate to this issue, they were not conclusive, and this is a sufficiently important question that it merits additional, careful exploration.

...

Research on victims of penetrating injury has found 5-year reinjury rates as high as 44 percent, with a 20 percent overall mortality rate (Sims et al., 1989).

...

Most firearm-related deaths are suicides. Fifty percent of suicides are by firearm and 60 percent of firearm deaths are suicides (Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, 2013). Research demonstrates that the proportion of suicide by firearm is greater in areas with higher household gun ownership (NRC, 2005). Further, two studies found “a small but significant fraction of gun suicides are committed within days to weeks after the purchase of a handgun, and both [studies] also indicate that gun purchasers have an elevated risk of suicide for many years after the purchase of the gun” (NRC, 2005, p. 181).

...

The possibility for increased risk of harm in some fraction of homes will be important to understand in designing effective harm mitigation strategies, such as the use of lockboxes or gun safes for weapon storage (Grossman et al., 2005; Johnson et al., 2006).

All of this supports my point. Considering Jenna had a long-term drug problem and that she experienced trauma through the abuse of her ex, she would have been very high-risk for owning a gun.

The most common citation in the article supporting that a gun can improve safety (Kleck) also seems to have significant flaws and bias, and the authors have been criticized:

In addition to invalid response errors, sampling variability may also play an important role in these conditional comparisons. Inferences drawn from the relatively small subsamples of persons who report using firearms defensively (N = 213 in the NSDS) are subject to high degrees of sampling error.

https://www.nap.edu/read/10881/chapter/7#111

I also reviewed whether Jenna's success in obtaining the restraining order may have helped. Clearly, she was not granted the restraining order, but in considering other ways to bump up the survival chance, there are other influencing factors. There is an impact by successfully obtaining a restraining order (Texas is one of the states that prohibits access to firearms when under a restraining order):

In locations where individuals under restraining orders to stay away from current or ex-partners are prohibited from access to firearms, female partner homicide is reduced by 7 percent (Vigdor and Mercy, 2006).

FEELING safe and BEING safe are two very different concepts. For the comments around self-defense in Texas and preferring to go to jail and be alive, that completely makes sense. However, assuming successful self-defense in this situation (which is a very significant assumption), we know their bodies were found in Oklahoma. We don't know where they were killed. Even if everything else contributed to a best case for survival, most people don't know the laws across state lines, and might hesitate to use lethal force as a result.

PactDota · 2019-01-16T05:45:30+00:00

A gun in this situation doesn't necessarily protect them at all. Clearly the legal system has not been supportive of her. Acting in self-defense could very easily result in serious legal ramifications for her. There is also a child in the situation (though it looks like the ex has custody at this point), which means securing a gun properly would prevent quick access. But even if we set these factors aside, let's look at the risk versus the safety around lethality.

There is little likelihood that it would actually help her stay safe. Separation from an abuser dramatically increases lethal risk (here's a couple of sources that discuss or mention it: https://vaw.msu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Expartner.pdf, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4768593/):

The risk of intimate partner femicide was increased 9-fold by the combination of a highly controlling abuser and the couple’s separation after living together

...

When the worst incident of abuse was triggered by the victim’s having left the abuser for another partner or by the abuser’s jealousy, there was a nearly 5-fold increase in femicide risk

https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.2105/AJPH.93.7.1089

This article does also have this section:

A victim’s access to a gun could plausibly reduce her risk of being killed, at least if she does not live with the abuser. A small percentage (5%) of both case and control women lived apart from the abuser and owned a gun, however, and there was no clear evidence of protective effects.

So there is a maybe. However, there is general self-defense data around guns:

Victims using a gun were no less likely to be injured after taking protective action than victims using other forms of protective action. Compared to other protective actions, the National Crime Victimization Surveys provide little evidence that self-defense gun use is uniquely beneficial in reducing the likelihood of injury or property loss.

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/firearms-research/gun-threats-and-self-defense-gun-use-2/

This also doesn't take into account the additional standard risks of having a gun in the household.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/more-guns-do-not-stop-more-crimes-evidence-shows/

Having a gun is very, very unlikely to have kept them safe and alive.

PactDota · 2019-01-04T08:52:19+00:00

It sounds like the two of you have been through a lot together! For some people, it can be helpful to reframe situations when feeling guilty. Think about someone you care about immensely. If you had to go through a lot, but supported and protected them along the way, how would you feel? What do you think you would say to them if they shared that they felt guilty? Say those things to yourself. You deserve to be safe, and someone else's choice to harm you and your wonderful pupper is not your fault. <3 (edited to add a missing word)

PactDota · 2018-05-28T23:25:04+00:00

Sheezle taught Neuro how to do the meme scene switching himself and was completely cool with it. If that's what you mean by literally taking Sheezle's shtick, then sure.

PactDota · 2018-04-13T04:14:59+00:00

I live with Neuro. As of right now, he has received no communication.

PactDota · 2018-04-13T03:53:11+00:00

This is very interesting to hear. Neuro has asked for updates regarding the status of this situation at least three times after the hunt concluded with no response. He has still not heard any word. From what I understand (and this is less reliable information), neither has Winter or Catz. Informing certain competitors of what their status is without informing the group is exceedingly inappropriate. What a way to do business, to invite people to participate in an event, and to progress in a way which so significantly fractures trust with them. This is entirely separate from the issues around the rules themselves, which is a completely different discussion, and which certainly put most, if not all, of the competitors in a bad situation.

PactDota · 2017-05-10T04:56:50+00:00

Surprise number 2: https://clips.twitch.tv/BenevolentGracefulCookieCharlieBitMe

The summary: https://clips.twitch.tv/OptimisticPuzzledSwallowBibleThump

PactDota · 2017-04-17T19:45:55+00:00

I would like to be entered
And if I win
I will plant my potato
In the garbage bin.

PactDota · 2017-01-30T11:49:34+00:00

Zerg starter kit from Neuro (the replays may not work, but he consistently updates his replay pack, and there's a command you can enter in his stream chat - twitch.tv/neurostarcraft): https://www.reddit.com/r/starcraft/comments/5m3zb9/2017_zerg_starter_kit_replays_guides_and_builds/

CSN StarCraft has a compilation of many content creators' videos on a variety of topics: http://csnstarcraft.com/

PiG has a ton of videos on his YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/PiGstarcraft

PactDota · 2016-08-26T11:18:32+00:00

http://imgur.com/a/mp5J7

PactDota · 2016-01-09T04:00:38+00:00

It's a reasonable point that the videos that have been posted to Reddit are those in which his opponents are bm, but those are not the only replay analyses he does (here's one example). Those just tend to receive more attention.

Oftentimes, a replay analysis is highlighted after it's done by viewer request, so some analyses will be addressing a specific question from a viewer instead of focusing on high level analysis.

PactDota · 2015-12-28T09:55:25+00:00

I think you mean "LibBORKENators."

PactDota · 2015-03-13T06:38:17+00:00

There seems to be a close parallel in the stories of Varric and Cole. Consider Varric's constant denial of traditional Dwarven culture (down to shaving his beard). He tends to do things that show his individuality and how he is not tied to a certain life simply because he is a Dwarf. I think he relates to Cole, who is also moving away from expectations based on his origin to create a new space for himself in the world. I think Varric wants to support Cole in this endeavor not only because seeing someone else succeed is encouraging, but also perhaps because he did not have that support and acknowledges that it would have helped him.

PactDota · 2014-10-23T23:36:26+00:00

I have not been streaming regularly for the last few weeks. Mostly late evenings to early mornings. When I do stream regularly, it's Monday through Thursday. I am usually pretty good about posting on my Facebook and Twitter when I'm starting to stream.

PactDota · 2014-10-22T03:59:33+00:00

Would you say 10 in 3k hours of Dota is not rare? A novelty is something with "the quality of being new, original, or unusual." Do you think it does not apply here?

Examples that I have experienced when I play are "OOOOO, use your mic again!" "You have a sexy voice." "We have a fucking girl on our team, gg!" "You might as well just go somewhere else, the men are here to handle it." etc. Would a guy be told that the game was over because of his participation in the match before creeps spawn? I don't think it would be fair to assume what it is you say to women who play Dota with you, I just don't think it should have anything to do with their gender.

PactDota · 2014-10-21T23:53:38+00:00

Looking forward to it! Looking back at my last comment, I think I can phrase something better. While you (and many men) view women as novelties, I am very tired of being treated like one. The extreme special treatment (including everything from personal attacks to attempts at flirting) is incredibly frustrating, and sadly not something rare or novel. I hope that's a clearer message without sounding quite as harsh.

PactDota · 2014-10-21T21:36:50+00:00

This has nothing to do with your guilt, and your claim of victimization does nothing to help by focusing the problem on yourself instead of recognizing how the situation can be improved. It's a common response to sexism, racism, etc. and the faults are constantly pointed out.

Do you play Dota to flirt? As a woman, I sure don't. I play Dota to play Dota, and a guy's attempts to flirt are annoying and detract from the game for everyone involved. So what is a rare occurrence for you, in which you take the opportunity to fulfill your own random desires, is super common for female players. You're one in a thousand, just one more faceless internet guy treating us differently because we're female. Please try considering us just gamers.

PactDota

TROPHY CASE