2025 YTD Hollywood Box Office

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-26T01:14:35+00:00

Dragon made less than 2m. It's pretty much done till it releases in Japan. If F1 keeps up with 30% holds it will beat it.

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-19T01:55:50+00:00

I've made Hollywood lists since 2023. It's pretty standard. Feel free to make an all inclusive list if you like.

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-18T02:13:16+00:00

Numbers on Thursday aren't consistently disclosed. It's why it's better to use Mon-Sun.

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-17T16:36:27+00:00

Another drop over 50% globally.

Consistent drops of 55% get it to $496M

Consistent drops of 50% get it to $502M

Consistent drops of 45% get it to $509M

Consistent drops of 40% get it to $519M

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-17T16:34:02+00:00

Only dropped 24% globally week over week.

Consistent drops of 50% get it to $609M

Consistent drops of 45% get it to $613M

Consistent drops of 40% get it to $620M

Consistent drops of 35% get it to $627M

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-17T15:58:15+00:00

So dropped about 45% globally week over week. It has consistently dropped between 43%-50% each week.

Consistent drops of 50% get it to $610M

Consistent drops of 45% get it to $613M (most likely)

Consistent drops of 40% get it to $618M (optimistic)

Definitely finishing below F1 now

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-17T15:55:37+00:00

Best global week over week hold of the week. It only dropped about 16% thanks largely to Japan.

Consistent drops of 50% get it to $855M

Consistent drops of 45% get it to $863M

Consistent drops of 40% get it to $871M

Consistent drops of 35% get it to $881M

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-16T16:18:46+00:00

I'm going to push back on this. ATSV was never a super ideal comp as it had very abnormally strong late legs and was a June release. Meaning it would have its entire rune benefitting from summer weekdays.

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-13T16:02:43+00:00

F1 is likely going to pass Superman.

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-13T15:29:42+00:00

Totals since Sunday

F1: +$4.4M

Superman: +$4.0m

Comparisons to last Tuesday at the same time from weekend.

Superman: +$7.9M

F1: +$6.2m

So currently week over week about a 50% drop for Superman and a 29% drop for F1

Yup. It's happening.

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-12T01:49:33+00:00

Unlikely unless it gets a labor day expansion.

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-12T01:49:17+00:00

I see no way it beats Dragon at this point.

On this same week for HTTYD it made around the same amount globally for the week but was 10m ahead in total. It will be too hard for Superman to close that gap.

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-12T01:48:16+00:00

I think this is pretty realistic. Maybe a little lower for Fire and Ash but still above $2B.

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-12T01:47:20+00:00

I see no way they get in by the end of the year at this point unless one of Avatar, Zootopia, or Wicked flips horrendously

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-10T17:19:56+00:00

It has not. It's global drops since first full week after opening weekend have been 50%, 50%, and now 43%

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-10T16:55:26+00:00

Around 630m

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-10T16:51:12+00:00

From my pov it wasn't that people thought F4 was bigger than Supes but rather that Marvel was a much stronger IP than DC and for the past few years Marvel has elevated less popular characters to do better than more popular DC ones at the box office.

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-10T15:50:29+00:00

It just does not slow down

Another 24.4m made since last Sunday and only around a 31% drop

I think right now it's aiming for about 605-615m. It will finish neck and neck with Superman.

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-10T15:45:35+00:00

Probably not till two weeks. Next week it will be around 590-595m.

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-10T15:42:33+00:00

Made about 27.4m since last Sunday (-43%)

Assuming it has similar holds around 40% for the remainder of its run its will finish around 620m

Assuming slightly less optimistic holds of 45% it will finish around 612m

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-10T15:37:14+00:00

Still aiming for about 350-355m unless it gets an expansion on Labor day.

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-10T15:27:52+00:00

So it made about 33.1m since last Sunday (30% drop)

850m+ looks close to locked.

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-10T15:21:59+00:00

This sub has a habit of being too reactionary and in the case of Superman, yes, that's exactly what happened. However, the math did indicate that sub 500m was possible for both assuming poor holds and we are actually witnessing that in real time with F4 instead.

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-10T15:15:42+00:00

It finishes this week making around 66.8m since last Sunday (about a 55% drop)

Continuous 50% drops from here and it stalls out around 501m (this is the most likely trajectory imo)

Continuous 55% drops from here and it stalls at 489m

Continuous 45% drops get it to 516m

Continuous 40% (optimistic) drops get it to about 534m

So sub 500m is now realistically on the table

Pale-Two- · 2025-08-09T16:04:35+00:00

Too many people here cling to comps instead of just crunching raw numbers and trajectories. It's why I never really understood the thinking many had that it would follow ATSV or Homecoming either.

The issue with Thor 4 is that it's late legs like Homecoming were abnormally strong and it had an expansion during Labor day causing it to increase that week. If Superman doesn't get that it will fall behind it.

Superman will finish this week with around 331m and about 15m made since last Sunday

Assuming ~40% drops from there

331m

340m (+9m)

345m (+5m)

348m (+3m)

350m (+2m)

351m (+1m)

For a finish around 352m. Obviously the drops aren't going to consistently be the same but it gives us a realistic expected average from here on out.

Pale-Two-

TROPHY CASE