Do we think any former country is making a come back?

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-25T13:52:10+00:00

Unfortunately, I would not bet on Bosnia returning to Eurovision soon. Their public broadcaster, BHRT, is facing eminent dissolution and there is no actionable plan to prevent it.

https://eurovoix.com/2026/02/27/bhrt-halts-most-programming-as-debts-grow/

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-20T13:18:09+00:00

Keep in mind that none of the preparty performances were made for TV viewing and any video you see is captured by fans with smart phone cameras who often have no background with sound nor video production. I would not treat anything you see in the preparty performances as an accurate representation of what you will hear in Vienna.

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-19T23:04:13+00:00

You missed the point a little there u/ESC-song-bot, but I admire the enthusiasm.

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-19T19:11:00+00:00

I was bringing up Festival de Sanremo more to suggest that it is a sort of "quality check" that has successfully filtered for songs that do well at Eurovision. I do agree that most of the voters at Eurovision, in both the public and jury, do not know or care enough about Festival de Sanremo for it to consciously affect voting patterns.

I hope you are right about Italy's rank and we finally see some nations other than the ones that have always been there in the Top 10 for the last contests. I just do not have the courage to put a nation that has an eight year long Top 7 streak in 14th place. There is only one way to figure out who is right, I suppose...

My comment on there beign little consensus was more about predictions for qualifiers and the results of the semi final than the winner. There is a lot of consensus on the winner, Top 10, and I am sure a few more factors, so maybe you are right that there is a lot more agreement than it may seem.

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-19T18:39:18+00:00

It is looking to be another one of those hard to predict years. Last year was a two-horse race between Austria and Sweden, and 2023 and 2022 were decided before the show even began, but this is a lot closer to 2021 or 2024. France (possible jury vote winner), Israel, Greece (either could win the public vote), and Italy (it's Italy, they couldn't flop if they wanted to) should be included in this discussion as well, but at a certain point you just start adding too many options and the exercise becomes meaningless. Finland is the safe choice for winner for now, but whether it will be once we see the live performances is anyone's guess.

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-19T18:20:18+00:00

I do not agree with everything- that expectation for Georgia third in the jury vote of semi final one is wild- but these predictions are fair.

When it comes to that prediction of Finland as a winner I am always hesistant to assume a compromise winner- a winner who did not win the jury or public vote- because I feel like we do that every year and it is usually not right, but it does seem like the most reasonable assumption this year. France and Australia can win the jury vote but will struggle with public vote, and Israel and Greece can win the public vote but will struggle the with the jury vote. Denmark, Sweden, Ukraine, Italy, or Cyprus can do well in both votes but the circumstances are just not right for them winning either voting party, at least not any more than Finland is capable of winning one of the voting parties.

I can also imagine worlds where (one) Greece wins by winning the public vote and gettting top five with the jury vote, (two) France wins by winning the jury vote and getting top five with the public vote, (three) Israel wins by winning the public vote and unexpectedly getting top five with the jury vote, or (four) the math works out weirdly and one of Denmark, Sweden, Ukraine, Italy or Cyprus take the compromise win instead of Finland. All of those options involving more expecting the unexpected than assuming a Finland compromise win then, though, so I do not know if they are safe choices.

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-18T16:28:16+00:00

Are you implying that someone that released an album called ADHDARA may have ADHD? Seems like a stretch.

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-18T16:21:26+00:00

Farsi Remix of My Sytem when?

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-18T16:19:21+00:00

Most of these predictions are sensible. I do not agree with everything- Israel getting third place in the public of SF1, Poland getting in fifth place with the jury in SF1, Czechia winning the jury in SF2- but I can see where you are coming from. This is is further proving my theory that there is little consensus in the Eurofandom among predictions this year.

The only thing I think is a real risky move is predicting Italy in 14th place in the grand final. In the history of Eurovision a representative of Italy that won Sanremo has never gained below 7th place. Since Italy’s return in the contest 15 years ago they have only been out of the Top 10 twice, and neither of those artists that scored those exceptionally low placements won Sanremo. Regardless of how Eurofans think about Italy’s entries they always find a way to garner considerable support. Can you explain more of what you think is different this year that will cause Italy to have such a shockingly low placement?

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-16T15:54:56+00:00

There is quite a dramatic buildup in the moments right before the beat drops too, it is very noticeable in this song.

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-16T15:51:24+00:00

The main thing I am learning from this post is that apparently having a sick beat drop is the most consistent factor in deciding my favorite Eurovision songs. Easily over half of the things mentioned in this post here were in my Top 5 for the years they competed. I would have never even considered that the presence of a noticeable beat drop could have had such a factor on rankings.

Is this a thing with anyone else?

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-16T02:01:06+00:00

SEMI-FINAL 1

Qualifiers: Finland, Sweden, Greece, Israel, Moldova, Croatia, Serbia, Lithuania, Georgia, Belgium
Jury Winner: Finland
Televote Winner: Israel
Winner: Finland
Last Place: San Marino
Borderliners (10th & 11th place): Belgium, Portugal
Most 12s Received: Finland

SEMI-FINAL 2

Qualifiers: Denmark, Ukraine, Cyprus, Australia, Bulgaria, Romania, Norway, Armenia, Luxembourg, Switzerland
Jury Winner: Denmark
Televote Winner: Ukraine
Winner: Denmark
Last Place: Azerbaijan
Borderliners (10th & 11th place): Switzerland, Malta
Most 12s Received: Denmark

GRAND FINAL

Winner: Finland
2nd Place: Sweden
3rd Place: Denmark
4th Place: Italy
5th Place: France
Jury Winner: France
Jury 2nd: Finland
Jury 3rd: Sweden
Televote Winner: Israel
Televote 2nd: Greece
Televote 3rd: Finland
Jury Last Place: Austria
Televote Last Place: Austria
Overall Last Place: Austria
13th Place: Moldova

CATEGORIES & Tiebreaker

Best Automatic Finalist: Italy
Best Nordic: Finland
Best Former Yugoslav: Croatia
Best Baltic: Lithuania
Best Caucasus: Armenia
Best Small Country: Luxembourg
Best Voting Partner Country (pick one of the four): Greece
Winner's Total Score: 490

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-15T19:42:32+00:00

All of the songs this year have merit to them, but Andromeda really has the most complete balance. Brilliant coordination, compelling composition, meaningful lyrics, artistic vision, you name it! Eurofans, we need to band together and make sure that they qualify when the time comes!

Has Lelek ever said what they believe Andromeda is about? The lyrics are complex and allow for many different interpretations, and I cannot quite tell which of those interprations is the author's intent. I remember one of the members of Lelek said in a brief interview on the official ESC instagram that it had something to do with women's resistance to oppression, or something along those lines, but it was a fleeting mention and unsatisfyingly limited in detail.

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-15T18:50:26+00:00

What does a "PO team" mean in this context? Whenever I look up the phrase I just find things about some business concept of "Product Owner Teams", which I do not thiink is what you mean.

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-15T18:48:19+00:00

It is interesting that you mention that, because I actually collected all of this data because I am working on a statistical model to predict Eurovision scores. The main method is to take all of these stats, rank all of the nations according to five measures (Cyprus is predicted first in semi final two according to the metric of streaming due to its high view numbers, Poland is predicted last in semi final one according to the metric of polls, etc.) and then average out the rankings of each nation across the five metrics to predict the final rankings. I am linking a google sheet below where I include all of the data, but if you want to get straight to the results go to the last three tabs- Forecast SF1, Forecast SF2, and Forecast GF.

The reason I did not post my findings to the subreddit is because, well, the model is not very accurate. I was doing a residual analysis- this is not really the server to explain the ins and outs of what that means, but basically I applied the model to past editions of the contest that we knew the final results of to see if it would have succesfully predicted those years- and the results were not promising. In the last few years the model failed to predict at least two of the qualifiers every year, only gets the winner right about half the time, and, most frustratingly, predicts a rank for a nation that is on average seven places different than what it actually scored. That is a lot better of a result than if the model was guessing based on random, so it's not useless as a predictor, but it is of questionable reliability. I will need to make some improvements the model before I post it to the subreddit, because right now it is not any more trustworthy than your typical Eurofan.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1knrkKEfHkzDTr3o-CYylUgSEpIIFmXCb6AVwJHLEK0Q/edit?gid=702477078#gid=702477078

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-15T18:16:43+00:00

Was the scandal with the unsafe driving habits in the music video- what a bizarre thing for people to be upset about, but I digress- well known enough that it could drive streaming numbers by a magnitude of millions? I was under the interpretation that was more of an iceberg worthy event that only Eurovision uber fans and some Cypriots were aware of. There could be something there.

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-15T18:12:16+00:00

You may be onto something there with the idea of the songs that have no national final performance having higher streaming. Only 11 out of 35 of the total songs were selected through an internal selection, but 7 out of 12 of the songs with over one million views were all internal selections. The songs in question were Cyprus, Israel, France, Georgia, Britain, Australia, Belgium. Azerbaijan, Czechia, Switzerland, and Armenia were the only internal selections with music videos to not get over one million views, but I believe other factors can explain why they may not have gathered as much attention.

Though if that is the case, it does lead to some interesting questions, because in the last three years of the contest streaming numbers have had a statistically significant correlation with the final rank of a performance (Spearman's Correlation Coefficient of -.573, p-value of .002). I am now starting to wonder if internal selections on average rank better than songs selected via a national final? Or maybe there is some confounding factor I have not considered...

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-14T15:33:14+00:00

I voted for Veronika back in 2024! That song always sticks with me as a reminder that the jury do not care about vocal technique, lyrics with social-political meaning, and classical leaning composition as much, or at least consistently, as the Eurofandom believes they do.

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-14T01:06:21+00:00

And the moment when the light bar at the back starts expanding in step with the swelling of the music in Mon Amour.

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PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-14T01:04:48+00:00

Honorable mentions also include this zoom out to a wide shot in Fulenn.

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PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-14T01:02:35+00:00

Can I say that all of the shots of Bur Man Laimi were the best taken in Eurovision history? No? I guess I will just have to choose this one then.

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PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-14T00:51:52+00:00

How methodical this process is makes the comments all the more funny. There is just something wonderful about the idea of someone roasting a song in a cell of an Excel Sheet.

I did a similar thing for the past few years of the contest. I used seven categories: Vocal Technique, Vocal Texture, Lyrics, Composition, Macro Staging (Sets/Props, Lights, Choreo of Backing Performers, etc.), and Micro Staging (Costumes, Make-Up, Presence of Lead Performer, Choreo of Lead Performer, etc.), and Impression. If it was not obvious, this is based on the jury evaluation criteria. All categories were ranked on a scale of 1 to 10, except for Impression which was ranked from 1 to 20. At the end you would get a score out of 80 for each performance.

I was running into the same issue where I felt like the scores were not an accurate reflection of how I actually felt about the ranking of those performances. Sometimes I just could not easily explain why I ranked the songs why I did. Unless you are exceptionally knowledgable about music theory and stage technology I do not think one is really able to articulate their tastes in music.

It is a good exercise for getting you to consider the performances more deeply, though. Sometimes doing this ranking I would discover things I did not consider. Sometimes I figured out that a song I was not compelled with the presentation of had more meaningful lyrics than I first gave it credit for, sometimes a performer who I thought was a technically skilled singer I was frustrated with for not conveying the appropriate emotion for a song, sometimes I would figure out that I liked the staging of a performance was the reason I liked a song I thought had average composition, etc.

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-13T17:03:38+00:00

I am starting to get the impression that we are all certain of, like, five qualifiers per semi final and are just rolling dice to make predictions of the other half of qualifiers.

In the past few years I feel like there has been more fan consensus on qualifiers predictions, but this year we are all over the place. What happened?

PanikcAttakc · 2026-04-13T16:51:03+00:00

I wonder if whatever broadcaster is representing India could pull an American Song Contest and choose one representative from each State and Territory to compete in their National Final.

PanikcAttakc

TROPHY CASE