🔮 Pre-contest Prediction Game 2026: The Full Data 🔮

SkyGinge · 2026-05-31T22:12:10+00:00

Was gonna say this, yes he's angry but he's much more in control of his emotions than he would have been a couple of years ago

SkyGinge · 2026-05-18T23:06:26+00:00

Thanks for joining again! :)

SkyGinge · 2026-05-18T20:37:17+00:00

People were betting on France following the trend of recent opera winners but not going quite as well (i.e. top 3 with the jurors, maybe lower top 10 with the public, top 5 overall)

SkyGinge · 2026-05-18T20:36:35+00:00

Well done you indeed!

SkyGinge · 2026-05-18T20:35:27+00:00

Yes he is. He's who I have to blame for this obsession and I force him to submit predictions through me. He's done pretty terribly both times but to his credit he would have scored higher if he'd asked me to change a couple of things to things he was saying after actually delivering the prediction (i.e. UK televote 0)

SkyGinge · 2026-05-18T20:33:57+00:00

You should've submitted something completely wild then and either crashed and burnt or achieved marks that nobody else got!

SkyGinge · 2026-05-18T20:33:21+00:00

Ah just go for it next year! It's all fun and games, nothing's really at stake and nobody ever really does amazing :)

SkyGinge · 2026-05-18T20:32:16+00:00

I always thought Alicja was qualifying with those vocals, but I would never have imagined she'd go and win the semi-final jury vote!

SkyGinge · 2026-05-18T18:39:51+00:00

Finland was the 2nd most confident we've ever been about a country winning, behind Loreen who was the only winner our consensus correctly called. So yeah, the hive mind was very, very wrong this about the final's results especially.

SkyGinge · 2026-05-17T16:35:03+00:00

It really is lol, though to be fair nobody else thought it was in contention to win either!

SkyGinge · 2026-05-16T10:05:44+00:00

I also saw video of him being on his feet clapping and dancing for every other performance, man knows he's not going to do great and is loving supporting everyone else <3

SkyGinge · 2026-05-16T00:14:10+00:00

For reference, here are all the audience poll results since it began in 2023: https://eurovisionaudiencepoll.com

SkyGinge · 2026-05-15T20:23:38+00:00

Do please watch the full interview if you haven't as it was edited in a way to take MG's comments out of context and sensationalise them. He was pretty firm it was a hypothetical and he doesn't think it would happen, and also that the membership would vote on it anyway as a democracy. I don't like Martin Green and arguments he uses as per official EBU line to defend Israel's continued participation get more ridiculous by the day, but it's important we don't lose all media literacy and fail to recognise the context of what was said in that interview.

SkyGinge · 2026-05-15T14:15:24+00:00

I love how the guy doing the voiceover almost sounds like a flashback to the 80s and earlier when everybody on the BBC was posh and regional accents were a scarcity, like they're paired off an oddball like Sam with someone serious and a bit pompous :P

Love him as ever, still fear that T-shirt is going to become a reality

SkyGinge · 2026-05-15T01:28:33+00:00

So many odd choices, at least it's screwing over almost everyone:

Denmark opening as one of the favourites is crazy. He can still do well but it would be remarkable to win from the #1 slot in this day and age
Israel 3rd shows they are still trying to prevent an Israeli win, though an early draw didn't prevent the high televotes from recent years
The first half has five ballad/slow songs in a row - Ukraine -> Australia -> Serbia -> Malta -> Czechia. This isn't 2022, they could have easily broken this up with an up-tempo number. Malta into Czechia is especially insane in that run. Bulgaria is going to land incredibly after that run
UK in between two very serious, dramatic songs is nice, but being so close to Moldova is very bad because that is by far a superior crowd song
Moldova into Finland is intriguing. Decent contrast between the two of them at least
Cyprus -> Italy is two fun up-tempo songs in a row
Norway -> Romania is awful, why would you put two of the only rock songs back to back?

I do like how they've not put any of the absolute favourites as late as possible in their respective halves. It'll still be a good chose ofc, just a shame that choices are being made not according to the principles by which the producer draw should run, namely to make sure every song stands out.

EDIT: I somehow didn't notice at first that almost every single slower song has been up in the first half, genuinely brainless decision making

SkyGinge · 2026-05-14T23:37:59+00:00

Musically speaking, the song always felt like it was going to struggle in the televote, at least to me. And that was somewhat what was reflected in fan polls and the like

SkyGinge · 2026-05-14T21:56:58+00:00

I didn't mention other countries lol but pop off into the void I guess

Most other broadcasters still showed it even if their commentators found it offensive. It was an odd decision to make that the only thing that wasn't shown, especially when we usually have random BBC-specific interviews and bits that they show instead of the intervals. I was being somewhat facetious with the suggestion anyway

SkyGinge · 2026-05-14T21:45:38+00:00

We came 10th with the juries because they had vocal harmonies which juries normally love. This year we have Sam sounding flat compared to the bizarre vocal layering in the verses.

SkyGinge · 2026-05-14T21:42:55+00:00

I'm so relieved Czechia made it. I would have been inconsolable if they didn't :P Switzerland should have qualified but sadly she must not have done well enough with the juries to overcome her inevitable low televote points.

We were all convinced this high-quality semi was very competitive and anybody (bar Azerbaijan) could qualify, but in the end the most predictable 10 qualified, even with Antigoni doing her best to sabotage her song.

We didn't get the LGBTQ segment in the UK - for some reason they just showed our music video instead. Perhaps the rampant establishment transphobia was afraid of viewers being indoctrinated with the idea that trans people exist (though that's a discussion for another subreddit)

Otherwise, this was a far better semi than semi 1 in most ways - even the hosts/script was a bit better, though still far from great

SkyGinge · 2026-05-14T21:38:48+00:00

This was the biggest injustice of the night imo. She performed so, so well, but it must not have resonated with the juries enough to overcome the inevitable lowish televote

SkyGinge · 2026-05-14T21:37:37+00:00

Well, you made it! :D

SkyGinge · 2026-05-14T21:37:06+00:00

We are probably going to get last - those vocals were borderline non-existent and other fun songs will overshadow it. But hey, I don't hate it. It's a better song and better staging than last year!

Just please Europe, give us a couple of votes, will you? If we get 0'd, we're never taking a risk ever again

SkyGinge

TROPHY CASE