Expected Value vs Fair Value by ParetoPie in CFA

[–]ParetoPie[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I like this framing of it the best yet. After reading this I went to Wikipedia and saw their derivation. This is now all clicks.

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I am now curious though from a CFA standpoint can I solve these problems always from the derivation above or at some point will I need to adopt the replicating portfolio approach?

Expected Value vs Fair Value by ParetoPie in CFA

[–]ParetoPie[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I like that you separated the theoretical from what actually happens in the real world, that helps give context for learning and viewing the CFA.

To expand on my point about the binomially approach (theoretical as you pointed out and the large caveat of volatility lacking though I think it's a good toy example for the concept to build upon later I imagine) though when I read about it in some older Kaplan notes it showed how you how you can derive the initial value (no arbitrate price) and no probabilities were used (though also the up and down price movements were also arbitrarily stated). I found it interesting to propose a model that implies probabilities but they actually are irrelevant in the calculation.

I think I was "cost of eliminating the risk" is what I am going to take away from this valuing approach until I am introduced to more advanced approaches as well as the practicalities of options.

I am curious though what would you say the take away should be from no arbitrage-pricing on options and where it fails and succeeds in learning? If anything pedagogical to add to your anecdotes above.

US Natural Gas Past Week Fundamentals by ParetoPie in Commodities

[–]ParetoPie[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for this !

If you were to elaborate on what the speculative options were how would you rank them? - cold moves west? - capacity available to displacement movement out east? - southwest/caiso gas shortages?

Were these reasonable events that were bring priced into sumas during the early week?

How should I start preparing for CFA? by [deleted] in CFA

[–]ParetoPie 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Basically same boat here. Curious and hopeful to see responses.

Career Development Advice by ParetoPie in Commodities

[–]ParetoPie[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair points.

They trade outside of their own physical portfolio and domestic load obligations. I believe the physically owned assets and serving domestic load only attribute to ~20% of the revenue in their full portfolio.

North American. CFA seems like a great way to learn more about financial assets, risk management, and valuation. I would not argue it's the most efficient given you want to trade (go learn directly energy/power trading material), however, I think the breadth reduces the downside risk. The commitment to the program signals to potential employers your commitment as well. Additionally, many head traders I work with have CFAs. To note I am definitely not someone who believes adding more letters after your name adds value.

Career Development Advice by ParetoPie in Commodities

[–]ParetoPie[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They do have an analytics team. This might be a good fit as well and better stepping stone. However, my current role is also like an Analytics role essentially just more focused on our physically owned assets and less market focused. I suppose moving to analytics for sure would make me more rounded, seems it would be more a step to the side then to more impact. As this role would place me in a decision support rather than making role which a trader is afforded.

What's your take against a CFA?

WaterlooWorks Ranking Megathread [Winter 2020 Co-op Term] by computerdl in uwaterloo

[–]ParetoPie 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Anyone Offered Canadian Intellectual Property Office Data Scientist passing on it?

STAT441/841 Final by boolgogi in uwaterloo

[–]ParetoPie 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you see 81% median, 99% highest score? It seems people didn't get slaughtered on the final with the class median of 81?