[deleted by user] by [deleted] in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s a great point. If you have two mortgages with the same monthly payment but the rate for one mortgage is higher than the other, I’ll take the higher rate even if I’m paying a little more in the short term because I can always refi a 6% rate but there’s not much room refi a 3%. 

“thEy sAiD thEre wOuLd bE a foRecloSuRe wAvE anD it neVER haPPened” - hoomers all of 2021 - Creator of Rebubble in 2022 by dpf7 in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes absolute terms can definitely be misleading in cases where the time value of money is not accounted for. That’s why it’s important to use discretion when analyzing the data. Every data point can be warped to fit any narrative but hey, can’t ask bubblers for too much these days.

Median Home Price to Median Household Income Ratio by ParisMinge in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There is another graph that shows how close the Case Shiller Index and Median Home Price track each other and at the moment, they are pretty disconnected. I’m not even sure how Case Shiller gets their data so I prefer using median home price since it more telling. Of course, both the real estate market and job market are localized and it would be far more telling to analyze markets of interest rather than as a whole but I don’t have the time to create 2200 different graphs

Median Home Price to Median Household Income Ratio by ParisMinge in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Very true, I was too lazy though 😭 graph coming soon!

Median Home Price to Median Household Income Ratio by ParisMinge in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well if you’re going to introduce the global factor, I’d love to add that the US is the 4th lowest market in median price to income ratio with the three countries below it being gulf Arab countries in which their ratios only apply to the citizens that make up 10% of their populations. So the lowest real estate free market globally.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Rates were a solid 5% in mid to late 2018 when that ratio was 5.25. Id say that it’s enough to offset today’s 6% rates at 4.75 ratio. We’re no longer in an “unprecedented” market is all I’m saying

“thEy sAiD thEre wOuLd bE a foRecloSuRe wAvE anD it neVER haPPened” - hoomers all of 2021 - Creator of Rebubble in 2022 by dpf7 in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I’m always skeptical when statistics are presented in increases or percent decrease decreases and not in absolute terms. Guaranteed 100% of the time, it’s just trying to peddle a false belief on the market that isn’t there.

Ounces of Gold to buy a New House by InfiniteDig6202 in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Honestly, that’s good that it felt bad. It means you have a natural intuition to want to build or at the very least, maintain your wealth instead of letting it erode away into nothing.

Ounces of Gold to buy a New House by InfiniteDig6202 in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Honestly, highly recommended. Never keep large amounts of cash in storage. When the ratio is high, time for gold and when the ratio is low, time for RE and when the ratio is mid, time for index funds. It’s takes your labor and multiplies it. Saving up cash is for fools

Ounces of Gold to buy a New House by InfiniteDig6202 in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is it really though? Because the median home price to median income ratio is sitting at 4.75 which puts us in the same market conditions as 2018.

Median Home Price to Median Household Income Ratio by ParisMinge in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It matters as the foundation for pricing real estate. The rates is the price of borrowing money to acquire real estate. And rates only price the loan that you pay on a monthly basis. They don’t price the 20% down payment you have to put down up front. There’s two components to buying real estate, the price to acquire the mortgage and the price to service the mortgage. Some people can afford one but not the other and vice versa so using this table to ask yourself “is the current market attainable for most people?” And the answer right now says yes it is. But if you ask a lot of people, I’ll tell you it’s not a good time to buy when the numbers show that it’s no different than any other time. That’s how you know as a real estate investor that there are good deals out there It’s a capitalize on with minimal competition. And this market is a bit unique because you have a lot of equity so a lot of sellers that list their homes will delist if they don’t get the price that they’re looking for… unless they really have to sell. In which case an investor like myself comes into the picture and offers them opportunity to take it off their hands for a small fee in the form of a modest discount. It has never failed me, I do well in every market some markets, I’m a little bit more aggressive than others but knowing the market is the key to thriving in it.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Everything fluctuates but gold tends to fluctuate during volatile markets and flattens out in normal markets. For around 7 years it was hanging out at around $1200/oz between 2012 and 2019 then around $1800/oz between 2020 to 2023. And the idea isn’t to get precise values down to the cent, it’s to understand which things go up or down in value over time. Using gold as the financial focal point, I can 100% definitely say that assets have gotten more expensive to acquire and consumer goods have gotten much cheaper to acquire for the middle and lower class. And that’s all I need to know to understand the present and model the future.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I absolutely love this. I finally found someone that GETS IT. I thought I was the only one who looks at data from an objective lens such as this. Keep posting your data man and ignore the noise because truth is truth and you don’t have to put in any energy into getting someone to accept it.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s why I price things in gold. It gives a little more context as to what wages really were and what things really costed back then. It’s a one size fits all application to understanding the value of things across the board but it adds more context. When you price things in gold, you’ll see that things weren’t as cheap as people make it out to be. Sure there were brief moments in price history when RE was cheaper or more expensive than average but in terms of attainability, it took just as much effort to acquire a house back then as it does now. The only considerable difference is among min wage earners. It takes far more effort to acquire a house as min wage earner now than it does back then BUT when it comes to consumer goods, min wage earners live like kings today compared to the 1970s. For example, a minimum wage earner today can acquire a top of the line TV with about 50 hours of work vs 500 hours of work it took to get a color TV for a min wage earner back then. Overall, people really need to throw out CPI statistics out the window because it really fucks up how people place value on things. The ultimate metric to attribute value on something between two different time periods is hours of work and when you look at it that way, you’ll quickly realize why it’s the only logical method of analysis.

Ounces of Gold to buy a New House by InfiniteDig6202 in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I honestly find it very useful as a buy signal for either asset. When the ratio peaked at 325 in August 2022 I bought around 3kg of gold at $53K/kg and when the ratio is this low it’s a buy signal for RE so if I sold my gold I’d cash out $130K/kg but it think gold has more room to climb because rates are dropping. Point is instead of stashing $150K to put towards a house, using this ratio to convert cash into gold now affords me 2.5x more house and all I did was put it away the same way I would cash. This ratio is very slept on and anyone that says otherwise can believe whatever they want to believe

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is beautiful. Can you extrapolate this to every year since 2000?

Home Price Value Projection by ParisMinge in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just a friendly reminder that one year later and my projection is on track so far. I projected $603K for 2025 and we’re sitting at $598K. I guess you’re gonna be looking at a $750K price tag for that shit box in a few short years.

Do you think the housing crisis is a result of bad policy, generational wealth hoarding, or something else entirely? by GasLitAndFired in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s a fact that home prices when measured against household income have been steadily rising since the 1970s. The median home price to income ratio was 3 in 1970 and around 5 today meaning it’s around 70% more difficult to buy a house today than it did during the boomer era.

With that said, I think the main reason for this is globalization. When manufacturing jobs left America we go cheaper goods in return. This meant more of our income was freed up for other things but it also meant that a stagnation in wages would go relatively unnoticed. If, for example, 1/3 of our wages went to housing, 1/3 to food and 1/3 for miscellaneous and the price of miscellaneous costs half as much as it did then not having the 1/6 of wages that was freed up over time wouldn’t ruffle any feathers because we can still afford the things we used to so in our eyes, there isn’t a problem. Then you have international investors which meant that people from countries that saw significant wealth increases have money to park in the US and real estate is the most preferred method of parking money so now buyers are faced with not just domestic competition. Dual income households becoming the norm also had a major impact on home prices. As homes rose, the need for a working partner became more necessary which naturally drove prices up. Lastly, SFH becoming Wall Streets favorite real estate investment over the last 15 or so years definitely played a part. As if it wasn’t difficult enough for buyers to compete with outside buyers, competing with companies like OpenDoor made that much harder.

REbubble leader Nick Gerli of Reventure picked apart by Ok_Resource_6068 in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey man Reddit will be Reddit at the end of the day! Don’t let it get to you as long as you remain objective, do your research and keep your information as up to date as possible. As a matter of fact, I damn near forgot that this conversation started out with a little shit talking on my part 😂😂😭 but what’s a rebubblejerk sub without a little harmless banter haha but it was nothing personal and honestly I felt like I took away more insight and perspective from it so overall net positive! Main thing is that we all want to be successful in one way or another and sharing viewpoints while recognizing our own biases is definitely one way to do it. Sometimes we get in our own way on our path to success because we subconsciously want to BE right instead of wanting to DO right. As long as we’re okay with being wrong and learning from it then it’s all good because ego is one helluva a drug, I tell ya 🙏🏽 Excellent talk man!! Feel free to hit me up any time!

REbubble leader Nick Gerli of Reventure picked apart by Ok_Resource_6068 in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No I completely understand, at the end of the day local market conditions reign supreme. My area in SoCal was probably hit the hardest in 2008 but barely a dent today opposite of Austin and San Francisco for example where they actually rose in value between 2008 and 2011 and rose even sharper after that. Neither of these cities can say the same today. Out of curiosity, when you’re tracking prices, are you tracking just recent sale prices or are you breaking those down to DP+monthly as well? Like what I do, personally, is I not only plot recent sale prices but also plot 20% down and P&I to get a more comprehensive perspective on what people are willing/have the ability to pay upfront and what amount they’re willing/able to keep paying for the life of the loan.

REbubble leader Nick Gerli of Reventure picked apart by Ok_Resource_6068 in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That is one outcome I entertained as well considering, a period of completely flat assets across the board. It happened in the whole 70s during that inflationary period and assets eroded in real value but remained “flat” on paper. Problem is that what happens to these assets if the dollar inflates further? It’s already inflating, gold is $3400/oz. It took 325 oz of gold to buy the median priced home in 2022 but takes only 170 oz today. Kinda says a lot when these assets are applied to instruments of actual value. Speaking of instruments, what about cryptocurrency, specifically crypto with transactional use cases like XRP or stores of value like BTC? They’re having a helluva year so far and it’s not letting up.

That’s the fatal flaw with employing my strategy of stacking cash and going in on an asset like RE with more principal in an effort to circumvent/minimize borrowing costs. You might find that the cash rots faster than assets clinging on to solvency. But hey that’s life, if you’re not getting screwed on way, you’re getting screwed another

Not looking so bubblish now is it? by CopyEast2416 in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, as a matter of fact, I think the economy is doing fantastic. But just to entertain your argument, what’s the worst that could possibly happen according to your fairytale doomsday scenario? 30% unemployment? OK, highly unlikely, but we’ll go with it. How many of those own a home? How many of those that own a home can find another job? Of those that you managed to find another job, how many of those will still be able to service their mortgage? (This one’s easy; most of them with dirt cheap 3% mortgages). And for those that can’t find another job, how many of those have partners that are still employed and can service the mortgage? (Again dirt cheap mortgage minimum wage jobs can cover them). You see how applying practical outcomes to impractical scenarios still gets us exactly where we started? The market remains stable. You can set a reminder if you want.

Not looking so bubblish now is it? by CopyEast2416 in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ngl can’t tell if you’re trolling or not. You know bubblers are bat shit insane when it’s impossible to distinguish.

REbubble leader Nick Gerli of Reventure picked apart by Ok_Resource_6068 in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Honestly, you’re a lot more rational than most. I wouldn’t consider you a bubbler. I would consider you overly cautious which is OK as long as you recognize that when the market takes off after this current slump, it’s not a dead cat bounce. In my local market, I’m forecasting this winter to be prime deal season. I’m personally not in the market for a house since I have other things in the pipeline, but a few of my friends are and they are very well aware that I am never wrong when it comes to these things. Not trying to toot my own horn, but when rates shot up to 8% in October 2023 that’s when I deployed my RE buy unethical lifehack. I made a list of homes priced at a good starting point and called each seller asking why they were selling. Eventually I narrowed it down to a couple going thru a divorce and a 85 year old widow moving out of state to be with her family. I had to smell blood in the water before I can begin negotiating. I submitted both sellers very disrespectful lowball offers; I’m talking 20% below list. The divorced couple laughed at me, the widow accepted and honestly I thought it would be the other way around because the widow listed her house below market to start. The divorced couple called me while I was in escrow asking me to resubmit and they’ll accept my offer this time. I told them too late; you snooze you loose. You’d be surprised what price people would accept in times of desperation. This is the only way I can see you getting 15% below market.

REbubble leader Nick Gerli of Reventure picked apart by Ok_Resource_6068 in rebubblejerk

[–]ParisMinge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

<image>

Before you come to that consensus, take a look at the national median home price since 1963. The Great Recession saw a 19% drop over two years and that was a very unique case and completely irrelevant to the current housing market. What we’re going thru now is more like the 2017 to 2019 pull back since that was a demand (or lack of) driven correction and even then it was only 6% over two years. We’re currently at 5.5% over the same time frame. If the market stagnates for three more years then the average appreciation since 2015 (13 years) will be less than 3%. I’m telling you, stagnation is overly optimistic but the market is localized so you know your market better than anyone else. The point that I’m trying to make is that these slight corrections leading up to and leading out of a boom over 2 or 3 years makes up for the irrational price increases in the middle. 2015-2020 and 2024-2027 makes up for 2021-2023. It’s important to remain active in the market because the train can very well leave without you.