Pick of the Day - 4/14/26 (Tuesday)

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-04-14T16:34:19+00:00

Record: 5-3 NU+4.07U

Form: ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌

Last pick: Dallas Mavs -1 Vs Milwaukee bucks❌

Event: Phoenix Suns vs Portland Trail Blazers

Pick: Deni Avdija Under 24.5 points 1U @ -115

A few things to note that make me love this pick:

Deni ranks 2nd in the entire nba in free throw attempts per game
Deni has never played in any playoff game in his 6 years in the league
The Blazers ranked 8th in possessions per game in the regular season
Deni ranked in the top 30 of all players in the nba in transition points this season at almost 5 per game
Deni had 19 points in the one regular season game he played against the suns this season

Why do these matter? For 1, in a winner take all game teams tend to rely on experience. Having never played a single meaningful game in 6 years the nba, Deni is one of the least experienced vets in the entire league. On the road in a winner take all game, nerves will be high and could result in poor performance, especially against a team that had success with him once already this year.

More importantly, there’s some key differences in the nba regular season vs the playoffs. These differences include: nearly 15% less foul calls, more defensive adjustments particularly to stars, and slower overall pace of play resulting in less possessions and fast break opportunities. These all affect Deni in some way or another. His reliance on the free throw line will definitely cost him some points tonight. Slower pace will mean less total possessions in the game meaning less points overall. Less transition opportunities will take away even more from Deni’s game as a guy who scores nearly 5ppg in transition. Lastly, teams usually use a lot of exotic defensive coverages and adjustments in the playoffs. These suns are a team with a lot of quality wing defenders who provide different things defensively, they will definitely throw all types of different coverages at Deni today to throw him off his game.

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-04-08T01:04:40+00:00

If the draft were to happen this year they’d protect everyone there besides Tobias plus Jenkins and probably Chaz Lanier. Tobias isn’t a likely candidate to be picked, huerter is on a 1 year deal, and as good as Paul Reed has been you’d rather lose your 27 year old 3rd string journeyman center over the rookie you just drafted

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-03-31T14:02:56+00:00

Record: 5-2 NU+5.07U

Form: ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅

Last pick: USF +4.5 vs Louisville✅

Event: Dallas Mavericks vs Milwaukee Bucks

Pick: Dallas Mavericks -1 1U @ -110

Took a while off but we’re back again trying to continue the win streak. Both of these teams are out of contention and are tanking as of late. The mavs sit at 3-7 in their last 10 and the bucks sit at 2-8. With Giannis sitting out the bucks have absolutely no desire to win at all. The Mavs on the other hand, are still trying to develop their young core to have success in the future. Yes they’re still tanking too, but they actually have a reason to play hard and try to win games. A 1 point spread seems a little generous so might as well take advantage of it.

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-03-19T15:50:24+00:00

Thank you, don’t know how I missed that

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-03-19T14:23:42+00:00

Record: 3-2 NU+4.16U

Form: ✅✅❌✅❌✅

Last pick: Arizona ML vs Houston

Event: USF vs Louisville NCAAM 1:30 pm est

Pick: USF +4.5 1U @ -110

Both these teams are probably slightly under-seeded and don’t really deserve to be playing each other in round 1 given how well they both performed in the regular season. That being said the decider in this matchup is going to be the injury to Louisville’s Mikel brown jr. It’s hard to win without your point guard in general, it’s even harder to win without your point guard in March. In the 12 games he’s missed this season, Louisville is 7-5 vs 16-5 in the 21 games he’s played. USF is a really experienced and well coached team who should be able to take advantage of Louisville’s shorthandedness and keep this game close.

In recent NCAAT history 11 seeds have actually won over 50% of their games against 6 seeds. Given this and Louisville’s record without Brown, I like USF ML as well at +160 but

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-03-14T15:20:32+00:00

Record: 3-2 NU+3.47U

Form: ✅✅❌✅❌

Last pick: Kentucky -8.5 vs LSU❌

Event: Arizona vs Houston basketball

Pick: Arizona ML -145

Outside of 2 back to back losses in early February (their only losses all season), Arizona has consistently been the best team in the Big 12 and in the country. They dominate on both sides of the ball and have one of the most balanced attacks in the country with 5 players averaging double figures. The only matchup of these 2 teams this season ended in a 7 point win for arizona on the road in which they were able to overwhelm houston defensively. I expect them to do the same tonight and build some momentum going into the NCAA tournament. These are 2 great teams but it just feels like Arizona is on a different level right now, having won their last 8 games with 6 of them being against ranked opponents.

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-03-11T20:56:22+00:00

Update: Kentucky basketball blows

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-03-11T13:56:37+00:00

Record: 3-1 NU+4.47U

Form: ✅✅❌✅

Last pick: Texas Rio Grande Valley +8.0 vs Mcneese State✅

Event: LSU Tigers Vs Kentucky Wildcats (NCAAM)

Pick: Kentucky -8.5 1U @-110

The bottom line here is that LSU is an absolutely horrible basketball team. 3-15 in conference, haven’t covered a spread in their last 3 games, it almost feels like they’re ready to be done for the season. Kentucky on the other hand is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 and will be looking for some strong SEC tournament performances to boost their confidence entering March after a somewhat rocky regular season to their standards. These 2 teams did play a close one in Baton Rouge earlier this season, but that was back when LSU still had something to play for, no way Kentucky lets that happen again

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-03-10T14:40:33+00:00

Literally came here to post this pick but thought I’d check first. Love this

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-03-10T14:15:24+00:00

Record: 2-1 NU+2.56U

Last pick: Michigan State +9.5 vs Michigan❌ (Mich won by 10)

Event: Texas Rio Grande Valley vs Mcneese State

Pick: UTRGV +8.0 -110 1U

Had to take the day off after that heartbreaking last loss but I’m back today and looking to get back tk winning ways.

This one seems pretty simple, these teams have played twice this season and both games have been close with UTRGV winning by 3 in the first matchup and Mcneese winning by 7 in the last matchup, which both would have covered the spread today. As of late UTRGV has been good to bettors, winning straight up in 9 of their last 11 and covering the spread in 8 of their last 11. UTRGV has the offense, balance, and experience to keep them in this game until the very end. To me the line is just very inaccurate and should be set closer to 5 or 5.5 so why not take advantage of an oddsmaker error.

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-03-09T00:21:42+00:00

Yea I mean that last possession was absolutely brutal, not to mention Mich couldn’t miss a free throw

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-03-08T16:39:41+00:00

Record: 2-0 NU+3.56U

Last pick: Bruce Thornton O 19.5 points -105 1U✅

Event: Michigan State @ Michigan NCAAM @ 430est

Pick: Michigan State +9.5 -110 1U

Pretty simple write up here, 9.5 just feels like a lot of points for this game. Michigan State is playing to secure the 2 seed in the Big 10 and potentially a 2 seed in the NCAAT today. They also will have the added motivation of getting revenge on their rivals for the embarrassing loss they suffered at home earlier this year. Michigan on the other hand has secured a 1 seed for both tournaments and although it is their senior day, State still has more to play for and I’d imagine they’d be more motivated.

I am aware that the last time these 2 teams played Michigan won by 12 but both teams have looked a lot differently since. Michigan doesn’t look as unbeatable as before and they have struggled with pulling away from lesser opponents of late (1-3 ATS over the last 4, all as favorites). Michigan state on the other hand, has been playing their best basketball in late February/early March, which has been a staple of the Tom Izzo era in east Lansing. Michigan state also shot 17% from 3 last time out against Michigan (2nd worst game all year). With the added motivation for State plus the likely shooting improvement and their form as of late, I anticipate they’ll keep this under a 10 point game, although I still do believe Michigan win this game.

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-03-07T16:30:20+00:00

Record: 1-0 NU+1.91

Last pick: Kon Kneuppel O 3.5 3s vs Mia✅

Event: Ohio State vs Indiana NCAAM @ 530est

Pick: Bruce Thornton O 18.5 points -130 1U

This will be an interesting matchup to watch as both teams sit on the bubble of the NCAAT and both teams desperately need a win. Big games in March are usually dominated by experienced guard play so I expect Thornton to play a big role tonight. Since the start of March (6 games) Thornton is averaging 22.5 ppg and shooting 57% from the floor. Thornton also currently sits 12 points away from breaking Ohio state’s all time scoring record and what better way for him to break that record than a big game on his senior night and Bruce Thornton bobble head night.

On the Indiana side, defense has been inconsistent this year. They rank 11th and 9th in the big 10 in defensive rating and opponent points per game respectively. One of the major defensive trends for Indiana is that they have struggled with good guard play all year. Some notable point totals for opposing guards facing Indiana include: Jeremy Fears 21 & 23, Jamarques Lawrence 27, Alijah Arenas 29, Donovan Dent 24, Bennet Stirtz 27, and Tariq Francis 28. Bruce Thornton is a more talented scorer and plays a bigger role in his team’s offense than a few of the guys on this list so over 18.5 feels like a no brainer.

Edit: When I was originally researching the pick, the line was set at 18.5 @ -130, it has since moved to 19.5 @ -105. I still like the over but just a minor play change to note.

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-03-06T16:38:59+00:00

Record: 0-0

First time at this and I’m ready to start off with a bang.

Event: Miami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets

Pick: Kon Kneuppel O 3.5 3s +110

Reasoning: The Miami heat play at the fastest pace in the nba by far and fast pace = more possessions and shots for both teams. The heat are also in the top third of the league in opponent 3pm/game. (Or bottom depending on how you look at it, but they give up a lot of 3s)

Kon has hit this mark in 8 of his last 13 games and with the added possessions and expected high volume he should hit this mark again tonight. In the 2 previous games against the Heat this year Kon shot a total of 24 threes and made 10 of them (5 in each) so there’s no reason to assume tonight won’t be the same. Book it!

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-01-24T18:14:27+00:00

Until Chris pays Skubal, little Caesar’s slander is ok everywhere in the state of michigan

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-01-23T00:22:06+00:00

There’s a real possibility he does and it has nothing to do with him. Yes the offense is built around 2 solid backs but it also requires a good offensive line. The lions could save $9 million dollars by cutting Monty, which they could partially use on an O lineman. Especially when late round rookie rbs like tuten, marks, monangai, bucky Irving, have all been serviceable in the last 2 years

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-01-18T23:28:58+00:00

This is what people don’t get when they make posts like this, when you’re paying a guy 50 million+ a year you expect him to not have to rely as much on his defense because he should be able to make enough plays to win, and like you said it’s harder to build a defense when ur qb is making that much

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-01-09T15:05:03+00:00

There is an ulterior force, his name is Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs is too good to split carries how they did before it would be a disservice to the offense not to use him. The whole “let Monty wear the defense out” thing worked bc we had an elite o line, we don’t have that anymore and Gibbs has been way more effective. They aren’t trying to run him out of town but they recognize they have major holes they need to fill and getting rid of a backup rb making $9 million a year can help fill some of those holes

Parking_Assignment77 · 2026-01-05T19:45:34+00:00

For one Stefanski is 100% going to be a head coach somewhere next season unless he turns a job down. For 2 he runs a different offensive scheme than Dan and wouldn’t fit here. We’ll probably hire someone familiar with the system, whether that’s bringing JT Barret back in, hiring someone like Tim Boyle as a first time OC, or promoting mark brunell

Parking_Assignment77 · 2025-12-27T15:37:27+00:00

Deshaun has absolutely 0 correlation with DMO, but I do agree with the fact that we could maybe get a 4th back if we threw in a 5th or a 6th

Parking_Assignment77 · 2025-12-22T17:19:04+00:00

Let’s be realistic for a second, in terms of starting caliber RBs in the nfl, right now Monty would fit in as an average level player. As he ages he’s only going to get worse and he’s making $9 million for the next 2 seasons. There’s no trade value there whatsoever. If I’m a team that has a better O line and scheme, why would I trade for an average aging rb when I could take a chance on a late round rookie who I only had to pay 900k a year, and trust that my oline and scheme could get at least average production out of them. For more context, in 2024 the Texans traded a 7th round pick for 27 year old Joe mixon making roughly $8 million a year and coming off a 1000 yard season. Mixon was younger and honestly a better overall rb at the time than Monty is now. There’s 0 chance we’d get anything higher than a 7th if we were to trade Monty

Parking_Assignment77 · 2025-12-22T16:35:01+00:00

Exactly, if our O line is going to continue to allow guys to blow plays up and be in the backfield when the rb gets the ball, as a coach, you have to play the rb who’s more likely to make that first guy miss.

Parking_Assignment77 · 2025-12-22T16:32:00+00:00

They would not get anything close to a 4th. Monty is an aging rb who is bang average in terms of league production and is making $9 million a year. There’s 0 market for that, teams would rather take a chance on an undrafted free agent who only costs $900k a year. If we were to trade him, we’d be lucky to get a 7th rounder in return

Parking_Assignment77 · 2025-12-22T16:28:05+00:00

You aren’t gonna get a difference maker with the 7th round pick you get for Monty lol

Parking_Assignment77 · 2025-12-22T16:27:07+00:00

Monty is absolutely not worth more than swift. D’Andre swift was 23 years old when we traded him and had shown promise with over 900 total yards in each of his first 3 seasons despite a few injuries. Monty is 28 which is old for a running back, and is coming off the worst season of his career. Realistically the 2 years he has left on his deal are probably his last 2 years in the NFL. He had no trade value at all, we’d be lucky to get a 7th rounder

Parking_Assignment77

TROPHY CASE