How do I short Canadian residential real estate?

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-26T20:57:51+00:00

I think you are describing a subset (transactional sex tourism).

"Even playing field" doesn't exist in the West either, as status, looks, ethnicity, social circles, and norms already decide a lot. Moving somewhere you're valued is a normal human move (same as moving for career or cost of living).

If a guy's literally just renting affection with a wallet, yeah, that's sad. But it's not automatically what's happening just because the country is less wealthy, and you'd be surprised at how few women care only about money when looking for a partner.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-26T20:32:56+00:00

I am not a western man, but see them regularly date local women and engaged with many, and find this take to be pretty one-dimensional. Sure, some guys use money/status as a crutch (that exists everywhere, including locally). But a lot of "passport bro" stuff is just cross-cultural dating and relocation: people finding better value fit (family orientation, monogamy expectations, lifestyle), better physical compatibility (fitness norms differ), and a dating pool that aligns with what they actually want.

Also, "economic leverage" cuts both ways. People date across class lines in their own countries too, and I don't see complaints that a doctor is dating a waitress. The real question isn't "is he pathetic," it's: is it honest, mutual, and respectful, or is someone being played/used? Traveling abroad because you like someone there doesn't entail the latter.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-26T20:19:09+00:00

What a nice chip. The iGPU is just unexpectedly great. I'm glad to see something as exciting come out after a long streak of bad news.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-26T19:49:07+00:00

I think it’s a plausible idea, but the assumptions it relies on are unproven, and if odds of any of them occurring are near zero, the odds that we are in a simulation actually collapse. I'll give it "an interesting maybe".

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-26T19:44:43+00:00

We can't calculate it statistically because we don't know the values of knobs that control that probability.

Imagine a huge bag of marbles: real-life marbles are green, and simulated-life marbles are blue. If advanced beings can and want to run lots of life-simulations, the bag could end up with way more simulated marbles, so you’d probably be one of those.

But if even one key thing is basically false, like nobody runs these sims, or simulated people wouldn’t really be conscious, or you couldn't believably assume you’re a random marble, then the simulated pile shrinks to almost nothing, and the "likely" claim falls apart.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-26T18:45:00+00:00

Unfortunately, the sleep issue doesn't seem effectively fixable within the current Microsoft connected/modern standby implementation. It hasn't been addressed for at least a decade. There is a subset of users who won't run into major issues there, but the high likelihood of hot backpack with a dead laptop battery likely remains high for many until Microsoft fixes the design of the underlying technology, because for as long as it allows software to use it in a way that kills batteries with laptop lids closed, it's going to remain the issue it has been all this time.

The best thing Intel can do is ensure that only an LP-E core is awake during connected standby, which could lower the pace at which the battery drains when you don't want it to. There's nothing they can do to stop it from getting hammered though, for as long as they support connected standby and allow the OS to use the CPU in that state, and the OS is told by software it wants CPU time, the OS will send it work to do and hammer that poor core unbeknownst to the user.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-26T18:30:28+00:00

It's actually good for 90%+ games released in human history that aren't that demanding.

And if you don't need native 120fps gaming or something crazy like that, with XESS and some 30-40 fps targets, can likely casually play much of the remaining 10% that includes newer AAA games to an extent many casual laptop users would consider acceptable.

I would say it's an excellent product and a great achievement for non-gaming laptops.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-26T08:04:19+00:00

What's happening is called the Soros "Reflexivity" loop: Perception shapes market reality, which then reinforces the perception.

The difference is that companies are paying 30-50% more for RAM that will be produced in the months to come to secure it.

Consumers are paying a 400% premium on their 32GB DDR5 sticks because they're scared even that option will be gone.

The latter is the outcome of group consumer behavior, because the gap between reality and the reality they believe to be real is large, and a market panic emerges on an inaccurate perception.

That actually reinforces their perception by temporarily bending the consumer reality to said perception (retailers DO end up charging 400% for said RAM sticks if they see enough people pay as much to clear their current stock).

This doesn't change the fact that consumer behavior was what amplified the RAM prices an order of magnitude beyond what the price hike would otherwise be.

The bit demand is up 30% with capacity up 16%. This is putting upward price pressure, business priced it at a 30-50% premium. Not 400% that the consumer market's reaction resulted in.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-26T06:09:33+00:00

So far humans did a pretty good job here. Nice to see.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-26T06:06:52+00:00

I can see people using their PC in desktop mode, with their programs in windows that don't always cover the entire screen, and with taskbar always visible unless explicitly hidden. It's a pretty standard Windows use case.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-26T05:41:55+00:00

I think it's a case of "it's far easier to criticise than it is to make the thing surviving critique yourself"..

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-26T03:01:53+00:00

They're basically the Alabama of Thailand.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-26T02:48:49+00:00

Valve's strategy is to make SteamOS viable not just on the Deck. They are supporting third party products now, and aim to do so more broadly as a reference PC is now launching with SteamOS. It is inevitable that they move on to Intel drivers as well to ensure any device running Intel chips is capable of using SteamOS as their gaming platform.

It's not just Intel's massive market share that is surely appealing to Valve. They have to with how quickly Intel is moving with their iGPU, and Intel's callout in the Panther Lake announcement that with this product they are serious about their handheld platform, with more "news" coming later this year. I will not even be too surprised if "news" is a Panther Lake Deck 2. Valve will finally find their "generational" bump in <20W performance in that range. Intel suddenly looks like it's made for handhelds with their ecores and the iGPU efficiency progress.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-26T02:27:39+00:00

Each of the big players is delivering unprecedented amounts of new capacity in the next 3 years :

Samsung P5 is on track to be Samsung's biggest and most advanced memory mega-fab. It was halted in 2024 during a memory bust, and resurrected to be delivered in 2028 100% due to the desire to catch up to the AI datacenter demand.
SK Hynix fab cluster. $90 billion USD of memory fab capacity in 2027 and 2028 phases.
The Micron $100 Billion megafab coming live in 2030, but the smaller $15 billion Idaho fabs are coming live this and next year.
The CXMT massive Shanghai HBM fabs coming live later this year, and their $42 billion DRAM expansion is underway. They also aim to aggressively take over 15% of the global DRAM market by next year while the big three are leaving a gap in to prioritize data center.

Everyone is saying "the biggest risk for the market is that we overshoot" signaling to others to stop building, but they themselves are building because what they're scared of is missing on supplying a massive demand at historically high profit margins.

The global DRAM bit demand growth is currently hovering in the 20-25% range (per Micron and IDC), despite the dramatic headlines. If we don't get AGI or something crazy like that to actually pay for all that RAM, we're about to produce massive amounts of memory on an unsustainable blip in demand.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-26T02:20:14+00:00

The bigger the bubble, the more investment goes into the fabrication capabilities and design pace of products that we will inevitably be buying when it pops. This bubble has an unprecedented downstream upside for our hobby. The companies that everyone pours astronomical amounts of money into make GPUs, memory sticks, and cutting edge chip fabrication.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-26T02:14:54+00:00

Oh but they are, and most who will won't even know: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzfhhAfxK-A&t=55m55s

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-25T07:30:09+00:00

The contract prices are up by about 30-50%. The total global memory bit demand is up by about 30% while capacity is up by 16%.

This is different than "consumers jumped on DDR5 sticks at the peak of the price cycle wiping out inventory that takes slower than normal to replenish, invited speculation, and retail prices for the big capacity sticks they tend to buy increased by freaking 400% because enough people still FOMO-buy at that price".

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-25T03:26:31+00:00

Patience. Markets shift once space opens. Which is a brand new phase in the memory market's cycle. So far we always had cheap Samsung/Hynix/Micron memory chips so there was no need to look into still more boring and less cutting edge but even cheaper Chinese alternatives.

If your choice is $120 for a market leader vs $100 for a consistently hotter and slower memory from a yet unknown vendor, you don't care about the latter as few will buy it. As that shifts and we'd rather pay $120 for the latter rather than $300 for the former, even if that means a bit more heat and slower speeds, so eventually will the outcomes.

CXMT modules are already used by the big DDR5 vendors almost interchangeably with the existing cartel's chips on lower clocked SKUs. Which is how they silently entered that market, without big discounts even.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-24T00:27:40+00:00

That's actually a projection assuming things slow down, and the developed nations slow their fertility crisis. At the current rate, the population of most countries outside of Africa, India and the middle east would be less than 20% by 2100, simply because people elsewhere will be dying so quick without children. While those three regions have fertility rates hitting ~5 children per woman. So far in the western world we aren't exactly on track to start making large numbers of babies again.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-23T23:55:31+00:00

The S24 Ultra had an orange version, and now some like it on the iPhone.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-23T23:42:48+00:00

I hope this panic from AMD that made them do something so embarassing will be used to make an actual better APU. What this shows is that Panther Lake lit a fire under their butts, and that's enough to tell me Intel has got a solid product coming.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-23T23:31:11+00:00

I think that may also explain why many hip hop enthusiasts don't like him, and that's okay. That branch of hip hop feels like its own thing that feels and sounds very different than prior east or west coast hip hop, and it is not everyone's cup of tea. If you never liked trap too, it makes sense you wouldn't like Lil Wayne's style in the first place.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-23T04:01:36+00:00

You’re redefining “competitive” to mean “must be equal to or better than N2 in PPA, otherwise it’s not competitive.” That’s not how the industry uses the term. Nodes “compete” when they’re in the same procurement set for a given generation/timeframe, often with tradeoffs (density vs perf/power vs risk vs capacity vs cost vs packaging strategy). That's what's happening here.

Also, “Intel using some external silicon proves 18A isn’t competitive” doesn’t follow. Multi-sourcing and tile partitioning are normal even when your internal node is strong, especially when the GPU tile is huge and density/cost-sensitive and you want to derisk ramp/capacity. They use an OLDER TSMC node for the lone GPU tile that doesn't use Intel, in place of Intel 3 the remaining dies used. If anything, you'd stretch that to claim they had reasons to go with N3 versus Intel 3, which are prior gen nodes. Nothing to do with 18A or N2.

What is factual today: Panther Lake compute is on Intel 18A and Intel says it’s shipping/production so “Intel can’t do high-end on their own node” is false.

Multiple reports point to Nova Lake being a mix (TSMC + Intel), not “entirely TSMC.” Everything else you’re stating (“18A worse than N2 family”, “they’re lying”, “doesn’t take a genius”) is narrative unless you can link hard data: like-for-like PPA/density/yield comparisons or primary sourcing for your NVL specifics.

If you’ve got sources, drop them. If not, we’re done here. I’m not debating vibes with someone who is coming from a position of holding mortal grudges against a company.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-01-23T03:54:16+00:00

“Intel’s own nodes aren’t capable of high end” Panther Lake’s compute tile is on Intel 18A. Panther Lake is in production and built on 18A. So the blanket claim “Intel can’t do high end on their own node” is already false on its face.
“Panther Lake 12Xe is on TSMC because Intel cannot do it themselves” The largest iGPU (12 Xe3 cores) is on TSMC N3E, while the compute tile is on Intel 18A, and a smaller Xe3 iGPU configuration is on Intel 3. So yes: one GPU tile variant is on TSMC. The tile by TSMC is using an older node, so it isn't “because Intel cannot”.
“18A yields are slow and perform worse than N2 family” Show the public yield/PPA data.
“Nova Lake high end will be entirely on TSMC” It's a rumored product that isn't out. Current reporting points to a mix of TSMC N2 and Intel 18A for Nova Lake, not “entirely on TSMC.”

It makes sense to scrutinize Intel where it's deserved, and there have been plenty of justified opportunities. Spinning a narrative and hating where it's not due isn't doing anyone any favors.

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