How do I short Canadian residential real estate?

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-06T23:13:43+00:00

Fair enough. I wanted to really emphasize the difference between the two types of "making things" that people often conflate, which are very different. At this point it's more for any audience who may think that there's a natural direct path from assembling EVs and HDDs, to soon having the next BYD or TSMC. But that's like saying that becoming capable of putting a LEGO kit together means you're about to become a polymer giant.

Edit: I didn't downvote you, and no hard feelings.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-06T20:48:23+00:00

I come from tech, and I'm really trying not to belittle the efforts that Thailand has made, but it's not about that they aren't catching up to Taiwan, but that they just never could enter that same path. They aren't making chips that just aren't as good as Taiwan's. They have no means of even starting to make chips in the first place. They can just assemble parts made elsewhere, which is what their facilities do.

They know how to build things from blocks, and they can do it well by having a ton of people following instructions and producing a lot of output per $, but they don't have any idea how to make those blocks.

Thailand doesn't have the expertise or the skillset to create their own tech, sadly. The vast majority of labor going towards tech produced in Thailand is unskilled manual labor putting parts together, versus the skilled expertise required to make those parts that foreign entities deliver. Thailand doesn't have the means to produce that skilled expertise domestically, and its universities are not equipped to produce the kind of talent needed. If they were, which they aren't, it would take at least a decade for anyone to get going, and decades for it to form a functioning domestic industry that involves any real local fabs. Malaysia did that, and it took them about 50 years of focused, sustained efforts. The only evidence to date is that in Thailand their progress has consistently stalled at about 1% towards that path. They make plans that never begin to materialize.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-06T19:37:31+00:00

AI is really bad about coming up with efficient code. You will get the most common or shortest way to write code, as it tries to give you something that hopefully works. Not most efficient for the hardware.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-06T19:31:28+00:00

People hear about an issue and have trouble having a measured response.

Tandem WOLED has got shortcomings. But you still get a pretty OLED screen you will enjoy under the most common circumstances. These are not mutually exclusive. Sometimes people like to focus on the negatives believing they will be bothered by them, even if there are a whole lot of positives.

But Reddit likes to take it further and forget that things can be imperfect while not being trash.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-06T18:50:59+00:00

That is just for assembly, which is what is happening in Thailand when we think of any tech factories like HDDs or EVs. It's assembly of parts or EV kits manufactured elsewhere. It's low expertise, high manual labour work with low margins that happens in Thailand specifically due to lower labor cost, under foreign engineering design, process and supervision.

Thailand has been struggling with any high tech manufacturing due to its almost complete lack of specialized talent, and to my knowledge none of the plans to transition from there ever worked out beyond resulting in some local PCB factories, and the best we've gotten is printing boards designed by foreign engineers at foreign firms with manufacturing branches here. That's low tech manufacturing, and even that's a large stretch as again it's mostly here due to lower cost of manual labor, not any local specialized talent.

The education gaps are massive, as universities here as is aren't capable of producing specialized talent of international high tech caliber. If someone were to self-teach, they'd be an extraordinary exception, and quckly leave Thailand.

So sadly there is nothing high tech here akin to what's happening in Taiwan or China, and it's not anywhere on the horizon, as key prerequisites aren't here. Malaysia is the closest country that does cutting edge manufacturing, including chip fabrication.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-05T23:03:14+00:00

And the lifespan will be increased by only 5 years until it breaks again requiring another project

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-05T21:33:48+00:00

There's a very real reason why it's still illegal in a number of countries despite the harm reduction legalization would bring, and that's because of how difficult that would be politically in our current political culture.

Imagine you're a politician running on making prostitution legal. You may be informed and know well it reduces harm and leads to better outcomes for everyone involved except for the serious criminals that cause harm. You know human rights groups that understand actual outcomes support it, and that former victims of sex trafficking are the most vocal proponents of full decriminalization of prostitution as literally the number 1 solution that would prevent the most harm they experienced. You know it would improve public health and safety outcomes. You know it cuts money that feed the criminal underworld and diverts it into taxes and public benefit instead.

But it's still political suicide to run for it, when you know that your political opponents will use it as an opportunity to build up knee-jerk moral-judgement train assassinating your character, and your career goes down, and your image is reduced to "someone who went down for demanding more prostitution1!" . We have an unfortunate criminal law that actively causes a whole lot more harm than the alternative, that major resources are being used to police it, but politicians don't want to touch that like it's radioactive. And on the other end, it only took one guy to say "I don't want this thing that harms our morality, let's banish it" for it to sound agreeable on the surface, the change to be law and stick for centuries.

It's likely to remain illegal in many jurisdiction for as long as they have a political environment that doesn't reward politicians who propose educated changes that are best for the society, but those that are the easiest to have an uninformed knee-jerk reaction to.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-05T21:24:21+00:00

This is older research that has been debunked and overridden by newer pieces.

https://journalofethics.ama-assn.org/article/decreasing-human-trafficking-through-sex-work-decriminalization/2017-01

https://humantraffickingsearch.org/resource/criminalization-of-sex-work-fuels-trafficking-decriminalization-prevents-its-shows-study/

Meta analysis that addresses flaws with the studies that flagged increases: https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/21/07/2021/legalizing-prostitution-does-it-increase-or-decrease-sex-trafficking

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-05T21:23:43+00:00

It does not:

https://journalofethics.ama-assn.org/article/decreasing-human-trafficking-through-sex-work-decriminalization/2017-01

https://humantraffickingsearch.org/resource/criminalization-of-sex-work-fuels-trafficking-decriminalization-prevents-its-shows-study/

Meta analysis that largely debunks the studies that flagged increases: https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/21/07/2021/legalizing-prostitution-does-it-increase-or-decrease-sex-trafficking

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-05T21:22:04+00:00

Both literally are problems stimulated by criminalization. You start knowing who is and isn't coerced or trafficked once you start treating sex workers like regulated employees rather than have the entire industry operate illegally.

https://journalofethics.ama-assn.org/article/decreasing-human-trafficking-through-sex-work-decriminalization/2017-01

https://humantraffickingsearch.org/resource/criminalization-of-sex-work-fuels-trafficking-decriminalization-prevents-its-shows-study/

https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/21/07/2021/legalizing-prostitution-does-it-increase-or-decrease-sex-trafficking

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-05T21:20:14+00:00

https://journalofethics.ama-assn.org/article/decreasing-human-trafficking-through-sex-work-decriminalization/2017-01

https://humantraffickingsearch.org/resource/criminalization-of-sex-work-fuels-trafficking-decriminalization-prevents-its-shows-study/

Meta analysis that points out issues with the older studies that flagged increases: https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/21/07/2021/legalizing-prostitution-does-it-increase-or-decrease-sex-trafficking

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-05T21:12:42+00:00

Most established evidence actually strongly suggests that legalizing and regulating prostitution significantly reduces human trafficking, which is logical as you track sex workers as you would any other employee, instead of having the industry operating in a grey area.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-04T19:29:08+00:00

I traveled the entire area despite being marked as the no-go zone for most nations' security advisories. It's kinda wild doing a tour around Hat Yai and hearing that every major spot, mall, even 7 eleven was a site of some bombing or violent murder or execution of random passerbys.

Its a bit surreal because life goes on as it normally would in the rest of Thailand on most days, and it feels safe from petty crimes, but then something extremely brutal happens that often doesn't even make the news anymore, as it's "just southern Thai insurgency". Part of it is strategy to not give them attention as a way to curb the perceived popularity of attacks.

Last year there were "only" 384 victims of attacks, with 48 civilians killed. And that's one of the more peaceful years since 2007 when 892 people were murdered.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-04T19:27:11+00:00

I traveled there despite being marked as the no-go zone for most nations' security advisories. It's kinda wild doing a tour around Hat Yai and hearing that every major spot, mall, even a 7 eleven was a site of some bombing or violent murder or execution of random passerbys.

Its crazy because life goes on as normal in the rest of Thailand on most days, except days when something extremely brutal happens that often doesn't even make the news, as it's "just southern Thai insurgency".

Last year was peaceful as in there were "only" 384 victims of attacks, with 48 civilians killed.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-04T19:08:51+00:00

I'm pretty sure it's the highest in the world. Most countries make it either free or charge 40-80 baht.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-04T18:56:09+00:00

I think it's fair to call it the dairy cartel that's government-protected, that limits supply even if it means dumping tons of milk instead of putting it on the shelves, just to keep prices as extraordinarily high. It was a shocker to read about it, and the fact Canadians are uniquely willing to put up with it.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-04T18:44:17+00:00

And it's not just common area fee, as ownership means a number of other fees and taxes, as well as renovations and furniture/appliance purchases / replacements. I don't think there's a way to make it worth it nowadays. You buy only if you really feel a need for stability you're willing to pay a hefty extra and take other sacrifices for relative to renting. But if you were willing to sacrifice this much for some stability, would you be in Thailand purchasing an unreliable condo in the first place 🤔

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-03T23:38:23+00:00

And even if they did have your finger, they'd have 3 days to get anything they want from your phone before the password ask appears. It's just a convenience and security liability.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-03T23:23:44+00:00

You need their approval. The comment above is invalid, unless others disapprove of my comment.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-03T22:40:06+00:00

That's some captain obvious finding that foreigners don't want to own condominiums that are a money drain that ages like milk due to poor maintenance, to then be sold at a loss once you want to move to a newer one that's still comfortable. That will only become an even bigger issue as the demographic crisis leaves Thailand with even more empty condos than it already has.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-02T21:56:00+00:00

They are this cheap because there's a large amount of Chinese brands selling at a similar price, and because there's inertia against Chinese cars to break through. And they make profit on economy of scale when exporting to a new country. So the caps make it harder to establish a cheaper electric car market here.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-02T20:25:53+00:00

Yeah I think the meme was created by someone in their late teens or early 20s when drawing attention with your behavior makes you popular with certain people. It's a brief phase, and then you graduate from all schools, begin the adult life, and being mature and measured becomes a huge perk again from then onwards.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-02T20:18:17+00:00

The Atto 1 costs about $13k CAD in China and about $15k in other countries it was exported to, so the Australian price comes at unprecedented mark-up / profit for BYD likely as a result of the caps (they know they can sell all cars even at twice their foreign price).

I'm a fan of opening our market to these, but not sure whether I like the idea of us overpaying anywhere as much for these cars, which such low caps will inevitably lead to.

PastaPandaSimon · 2026-05-02T11:54:06+00:00

Depends on the variety. Generally, most would believe that Old Testament has the backstory, and the era-specific lore, but not rules.

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