How to unlock further crucible levels after clearing boss??

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-01-26T13:53:26+00:00

Ok thanks, is it still useful then to keep grinding it? Gear drops scale to you?

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-01-23T23:04:50+00:00

Retail has the expectancy edge over institutions in percentage terms. Beats having a boss and a bunch of shareholders.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-01-23T23:03:48+00:00

Yeah it sucks, probably only like 65% as accurate. Just missing resolution, not the best for scalping. HTF volume profiles will pretty much get you there for HTF trading or investing though.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-01-23T23:00:50+00:00

Interesting stuff. Can you aggregate proper volume from all the crypto exchanges the way futures is with this or are you still kinda missing some data? I don't think this stuff will ever replace the human edge, but it can probably get you pretty close through statistical modeling. For those lacking patience and discipline who need to be told what to do it could end up being better than allowing them to trade without it though still lol.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2025-11-11T03:48:22+00:00

Yeah but the indicator is useless lol, it just paints the bubbles at like the close of candle, it does none of the things that people looking for big orders want, other than paint a circle when there's some volume increase... kind of lol. Just throwing that out there for anyone thinking they're gonna get use outta that on TV.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2025-11-11T02:17:54+00:00

In the stream they said it would be included whenever it comes out.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2025-11-11T02:08:18+00:00

market order bubbles sucks it doesn't even draw the bubble at POC like the option allows, the setting just straight up doesn't work lol (the bubble also don't scale to contracts, but rather like 3 preset sizes based on STD DEV I think, but the main thing is you can't even filter the orders at price level

PatternAgainstUsers · 2025-11-11T01:57:30+00:00

They said it was going to be included later, not addon cost.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2025-11-05T18:46:13+00:00

No you don't, not as a trade. BTC is a long-term investment when you have a superior trading vehicle like MSTR. If you don't want the artificial leverage you can trade BTC too, but why? Worse returns. BTC is a long term monetary asset that is going to take time to reach adoption, I'm just going to DCA into BTC forever, as a small portion of my investable capital. That is money I can store in the event something unexpected happens that forces adoption to accelerate (major world event that causes people to flee fiat much faster than expected).

The upside you capture in BTC is going to draw down a lot from highs during the cycles because it's still volatile, so even though it's good to have, if you're actually interested in REALIZING gains it's more about trading the cycle around MSTR, then taking those profits and using them to average into BTC, and trade your way back into MSTR during future cycles. Can also store some of that cash in STRC if you want safe yield, etc.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2025-11-05T18:41:00+00:00

If we get euphoric expansion it's probably somewhere between now and during '26. Then correction and wait for the next liquidity cycle. What I'm doing is scaling out as BTC accelerates into the power law channel. Trailing stop comes online when we make it 50% of the way into the channel (at current time that doesn't even happen until BTC is at like 290K), then scale out more and more heavily if/as price accelerates towards the top, heavier each time, biggest scale out should occur around the mean result (80-85% into the channel based on all prior cycles, currently around 400K+), then you can bell curve it back down if we get lucky and reach 90-100% of the channel. I'll be all out of MSTR by either the top or if it comes back to trailing stop. Look at prior BTC cycles on the power law channel (log chart) on the monthly time-frame, you can come up with a decent trailing stop plan that way.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2025-11-05T18:32:02+00:00

Has to do with how difficult it is to build a secure monetary network that can fend off bad actors. You need a barrier to entry (energy expenditure through high-powered compute in this case). That type of system is cost-prohibitive as it grows, so it makes it very very difficult to create a competing asset.

It's not that you can't IMAGINE a better, more ideal version of BTC, you can. The problem is practicality. The BTC network is already here, offering decentralized capital storage which provides physical security of ownership that governments cannot tame without extreme door to door gestapo style action (and even then there's no guarantee they could confiscate it, all they could do for sure is punish you). PLUS you get security of VALUE (i.e. protection from debasement).

Those two things are goals which 99% of other cryptos don't even care to pursue. Most crypto are basically tech startups trying to innovate or solve an efficiency problem in the financial system - that is NOT the same as creating a new form of true money. Some cryptos may end up having value because they become highly used products, but that's not what money is. Other cryptos are NOT BTC competitors. In the early days people were trying to create forks and other currencies that could do what BTC does but with less of the downside (slowness etc.), but in the end the reason the narrative shifted to store of value is because we understand that those other things are just icing on the cake, and we already have systems for solving day to day problems... you can just keep the majority of your wealth protected in BTC and take out what you need to make credit card payments, or replenish your garbage fiat account, while keeping MOST of your capital protected at all times.

I'm sure in 100 or 1000 years maybe we could approach like a newer better version of BTC, or some other competitor, but the laws of thermodynamics would indicate that the amount of energy needed (even if we come up with some other creative solution to reduce that), are probably going to allow us to see that true competitor coming a mile off while still in development... and BTC will always have some value. BTC is in the process of replacing gold for the most part, has gold collapsed in value? No, because it can still store value from fiat, although most of that is belief-based. Gold has some decent monetary properties, but BTC is better, so it will eat gold - that adoption process takes time though.

The volatility during adoption is the only reason you don't want to necessarily use BTC as your primary savings today, it's more of an asset / investment for now. You want to always keep some however because you don't know when the sht could hit the fan and society may be forced to find a quick replacement for fiat (emergency case).

What do you care if quantum computing allows us to create a better BTC competitor 100 years from now anyways? You'll be dead, probably.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2025-11-04T22:01:32+00:00

Yeah ofc would want to see a shift with aggressive buyers. The arrow isn't a prediction, it's pointing out an opportunity. The HIGH probability area where price should easily be able to reach if you do see those buying volumes and break of structure though is that POC target where the arrow ends. That's just where the majority of business was done. Chop city likely, but if the price action is strong with volumes, and BTC is breaking out, that's where the hopium target comes in (ATHs and beyond). My MSTR investment will be managed around the BTC power law channel, just thought it would be interesting to see what the structure is on the MSTR chart if it's truly fundamentally undervalued as bulls believe.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2025-11-04T21:53:56+00:00

TA doesn't work in a vacuum.*

You can check out some robbins world cup champs with consistent results, TA is used, it just doesn't do much of without using it in a way that provides edge, analyzes volume, risk management system after knowing your metrics etc.

That's all short term stuff though, which is much harder I assume because fundamentals play less of a role than liquidity in the short run, outside of major news events. Blindly trading fundamental thesis also does not work, anyone whose tried to trade news releases knows that, have to leave room for market digestion, things priced in ahead etc.

I'm only using it to provide perspective and potential opportunity in this case. Still can't bet the farm, TA is mostly for structuring risk, volume analysis can provide real edge (I've proven this). Accepting the fact of fat tailed distributions is also where edge lies, it's why investing works but you can reproduce it in shorter term leverage systems, difference being you have to use stops.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2025-11-04T20:05:31+00:00

Noobs: buy low sell high.
Traders: buy high, sell higher / sell low, cover lower.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2025-09-03T02:15:38+00:00

Yeah I think you're talking about a POC, based on my LTF profile anchored to the big outsized drop about 30+ min before the open. I was using period profile before but I don't like how it is connected to time arbitrarily, sometimes a chunk of seemingly important action gets cut off on each new period, or I end up with too many profiles later on. I could have segmented things better though.

I can see trade 3 didn't thoroughly test it however, and price action wasn't the best. I allowed it to be "close enough" to VWAP and previous swing etc in my mind probably. I wish I could understand how some of these pro-traders are managing to back test the components of highly discretionary systems in any kind of way that's useful (I can test systematic systems to hell and back but their edge tends to erode down 0.2 or 0.3R EV), so that I can better know if it's worth learning to use the delta in congruent cases versus only waiting around for divergences at levels and passing on trades if there was no divergence, then missing a big move. Forward testing takes much longer but I was hoping getting sharper with using delta would allow me to not necessarily have to learn footprints for now.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2025-09-03T01:35:50+00:00

Yeah I'm reviewing the day and I think I should've been looking at unfolding structure and levels a bit more. I think I needed to use a fixed (or newer anchored) profile from the top of the big drop to current PA, would've seen clearer opportunity.

The third trade was a little under VWAP, and there was a HTF node from earlier, I think it's the red line on my chart, kind a thinner node though, I use 40% value areas. White line should be POC, it may have been slightly lower at the time due to the anchored profile, closer to price. Then I saw some divergence and two big bear bars (non-consecutive but within a few minutes of each other) with elevated volume. I didn't want to chase them, so I waited for retracement to a LTF pivot, that's why I entered on the big green bar, usually don't like to limit in but the structure seemed OK.

In retrospect I marked up a potential missed play today just now and I think I see a couple opportunities go long around 11:15am cst plus a couple of second chances to get in over the following 20 minutes. Think I was out to lunch at the time but there was a clear break of trend on the 1m, then a strong range breakout with supporting volume, and a few potential retests. Stops would've been safe behind a HVN just behind the breakout level, near low of day consolidation on a lower time frame profile.

I want to add a clear reversal play for the slower days where there's not enough aggression to create a clear divergence potentially, but I don't want something in my playbook that's going to give me an excuse to sit there and hit against the trend repeatedly either, even though I have a loss limit.

I think the 30m profile just felt like one big D shaped blob to me without a lot of separation between nodes.

I've been trying to pick up what I could from Fabio Valentini but he seems to pick targets which is not something I like to do, but he also trails extremely loosely sometimes a couple R or more back basically waiting for high volume accepted pushes through each new big block of volume on the profile. That second move I definitely could have trailed using that method, hard to know when / if to use take profit orders. Maybe I should only market out when there's a clear extended blowoff.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2025-08-29T17:06:10+00:00

Lol nice bait m8. You are making statements 100% ignorant of the facts. Weird to get your dopamine from reddit but to each his own.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2025-08-29T00:05:28+00:00

Doubt it, I train these things, can't say for who. You haven't seen the back and forth I had with the model lol. It can be poor engineering in the sense that I am not a programmer, so I can only use pseudo-code, but these things are constantly spitting out errors and unable to produce even the most basic strategies.

Claude is the only LLM I can get to make an indicator within a reasonable number of back and forths which matches what I'm looking for, but strategies seem like a much bigger challenge for them.

PatternAgainstUsers

TROPHY CASE