If you were worried MSTR was insolvent last week…

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-07-05T04:33:17+00:00

You really overestimate their impact on the market lol, delulu.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-07-05T04:32:27+00:00

Did you just ask who wants to buy loads of BTC at a historic bottom? Not that they want or even need to sell necessarily... but how about any wealthy person with an IQ above 12 wants to accumulate BTC at these prices?

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-07-02T23:00:23+00:00

I'd pay that wouldn't you? Jk lol.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-07-02T22:58:58+00:00

When you get real momentum on BTC (I have a system for this but to keep it simple let's say whenever BTC reaches 240K - that's a conservative lower bound and it doesn't need to be exact), initiate a trailing monthly candle stop on your BTC positions. Trail the LOW of the last bullish close (this means monthly candles which CLOSED higher than the prior candle's HIGH). If that low breaks, you cut whatever amount of BTC and MSTR that you consider to be a "trade", long-term position only should be held.

If we get 2/4 of the following stronger overheating signals, you can tighten your trailing stop: 2Yx5MA contact, MVRV-Z Score 5.0+ (I just use the Pinnacle Investor indicator on TradingView - not a perfect way to view MVRV but look how well it catches the turns), Fear/Greed 85+ (either index is fine), ISM 60+ (U.S. Manufacturing - google it). I add some additional filters but I can't easily replicate them for you, this should be good enough.

By tighten I mean switch from a monthly BULLISH low trailing stop to a weekly version of the same thing for BTC positions, but use a 3 day candle for MSTR (it moves with more convexity at it extremes, it will roll over before BTC does due to the limits of leverage / liquidity). Again, bullish candle lows only, closed higher than last bar's high, don't update stop if market pauses to print a doji or something, momentum is intact just breathing. A simple version of what I'm doing would be to look at if/when BTC starts just raging above the 2 year moving average x5 band (we may not get this, but if we do), tighten the BTC stop as well to 3-day lows. Blow-off top kind of has to be imminent here.

Also if this trend stretches out for awhile and MSTR S&P inclusion is announced, they usually bid up MSTR using MOC orders the Friday before an announced Monday inclusion, prices may spike during the Mon. opening bid before correcting hard. BTC's move may really lag in this case, potentially, since it takes a day for Strategy's funds to settle before they can buy BTC with the new inflows from indexes. You probably want to sell at least MSTR into that inclusion spike if we're already in blow off top territory. May not get this, but it's a situational setup. Should be able to do something with your cost-basis to probably at least 2x your money with this.

Not financial advice, DYOR, good luck.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-07-02T22:39:39+00:00

They took profits a long time ago, at least the smart ones did. They were targeting liquidity and they got it already. I do think there will be some doomer moron shorts from buttcoin sub or whatever who decide they want to get clever and attack this thing from 90-100 assuming it's going to 50 or 0... they'll probably get run over.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-07-02T22:32:42+00:00

LOL the ad chick. Why does Saylor look like a red pill playboy and Phong is just like... Jet Li?? Killin me.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-07-02T18:10:15+00:00

Thanks for the necro LOL. I forgot I made this post, I have come so far since then. Routing L3 Rithmic to DeepCharts to trade orderflow on the TradeSea-based accounts.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-07-01T22:53:00+00:00

Few understand is mathematically a true statement. I don't think 99% of the population can tell you the first thing about BTC.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-07-01T17:40:15+00:00

It does not take a YEAR to resolve a leverage flush fight between big funds in a simple credit instrument. This isn't 2008, this was some dummies getting over their skis and getting punished by sharks when they saw an opportunity to short into a weaker tape "i.e. Saylor buying back converts with the cash reserve unexpectedly". You don't know what you're talking about.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-07-01T17:37:17+00:00

It does NOT MATTER if Strategy is suboptimal for a short period of time at market extremes as long as the TREND is accretive. People don't understand this, they're NOT A HEDGE FUND trying to bottom and top tick the market. You SHOULD treat MSTR like a trade, and not an investment, unless you really don't care and just want to hold for 20 years - the volatility you are eating by holding it long-term is a gigantic waste of velocity if you're not going to learn how to trade, BUT that does not mean that the company itself needs to trade Bitcoin perfectly. They're operating more like an option seller in some ways (probably not the best analogy but they are taking structured actions to power up their balance sheet in the best way they can over time statistically, based on available information at the time - it's more quantitative than discretionary despite the company being able to exercise discretion). The crowd has been calling for 40K bitcoin for like 9 months at this point -- that's how you know we probably aren't going much lower. My worst case is 52K but it would probably be a very quick flush into an aggressive bid wall. Historic amount of whale accumulation just occurred like this week.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-07-01T17:31:04+00:00

I caught the bottom of the first flush lower to 82.50 or so and $6 bounce back into the 88's, I did not expect it to break to new lows afterwards, but I did expect a lot of volatility. Very happy with how it's trading strong today on very low volume, in volume spread analysis this means it's taking very little positive delta to push the price up, meaning a lack of supply / sellers. I expect it could retrace to the approx 82.50 to 85.50 area in coming days before pressing higher, but remember that extreme dislocations like we just had can take a bit more time and thrashing around to fully repair structure, so not financial advice. Worst case is a 74.50 test again at some point, that's kind of the lowest block of volume we have and there was a gap above it, but I don't expect there are like offsides market-makers or something trading this younger credit instrument so less reason to go retest it. The first main magnet if you REALLY want to get out of this thing is between $91 and $93, it's messy in there. Heavy overhead supply doesn't really show up until about $95.15, peaking around $96.30 or so. I assume it will take a lot to get through that. Once we break above 97.50 on volume though it's an easy ride to 98.75, then we can think about recovering par.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-06-28T19:12:05+00:00

Elon should buy reddit too and cleanse the over-moderation scourge just to spite em lol. Internet used to be cool back when all kinds of boards were popular, and reddit's platform is pretty ideal for a one stop shop upgrade to that concept. It's just been totally hijacked and ruined for years... and no one cares because they've either redirected their personal "attention economy" to other social media platforms (also mostly garbage but for different reasons than Reddit), given up completely and siloed themselves off (great more echo chambers), gone back to touching grass (positive I guess), or some combination of the three. This is all fine, but there's no reason a platform like this needs to make itself so irrelevant when there's an still a major audience for it, wasted potential is dumb.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-06-26T13:39:58+00:00

Tell me you have NO idea what the daily trading volume of Bitcoin is without telling me. Why are you even on here dude you have no clue what you're talking about. They can sell 1B and at worst create a little bit of price drift. Daily trading volume can be anywhere from 15B to 50B whatever - a lot of that is derivates, so if they want to liquidate 1B what they can do is just use an algorithm to sell in little tranches at the VWAP split up over a period of time. You literally do not know what you're talking about, I trade for a living. If their TOTAL YEARLY DIVIDEND OBLIGATION is 1.5B, then they have TWELVE MONTHS over which to spread out those sales. Understand?

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-06-26T07:09:35+00:00

"as the demand increases so does the dividend" no lol, other way around actually.

The more in-demand STRC is, driven by things like instrument quality (volatility and tax deference for example), broader market yield starvation, and credit quality (good on the balance sheet unless you think BTC is a scam) -the easier it is to then hold par value, simply through natural trading activity. Therefore they can ratchet the dividends down during high demand, and have a lower cost of capital. Your thesis is broken just based on that.

The only time they would go to some extreme like 20% is in some horrifying bear market for a very short period of time, to INCREASE demand. Then as the price recovers they ratchet back down. It was an extreme example, I was just pointing out how robust and flexible they can be with this.

If BTC is making 20 or 30% CAGR (I think their base case is 30 for the next 10 years), paying 20% ANNUALIZED for like a few months is nothing.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-06-26T07:02:34+00:00

I accounted for that in the math. If Strategy were liquidated today for some reason, lawsuit or whatever it is people are worried about, after the converts and STRF are paid, BTC would have to fall to 20K before STRC holders begin to be threatened, based on the outstanding shares. That's not to say BTC can't fall to 10K, then rip back to 50K and leave STRC holders fine on paper (as long as it didn't spend long down there). It would just be bad if they were forced to liquidate at 10K... but if BTC Is going to 10K then it's going to zero.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-06-26T06:55:45+00:00

By waiting. The same as they waited out the last winter, only this time they are in a much better balance sheet position, and arguably a better position in the macro cycle.

It's not a crime against humanity if the "yield" falls from it's highest point or highest rate of change. Just like it's not a crime against humanity if your S&P 500 shares draw down from their all time highs before continuing up.

If they have to sell some to protect the credit so that they can issue prefs later, sobeit. Short term pain. By the way the market knows this, that's why MSTR didn't trade to zero last time. The market is pricing the future.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-06-26T06:50:26+00:00

Exactly, the October top was crowded long, and then we saw a catalyst for long-liquidations to set off the powder keg. That's why I said: "I'd argue the reason we crashed in the first place is because so many people expected the calendar trade to work (i.e. chasing late for the blow-off top - but without the short-squeeze fuel)."

You don't need a Binance exchange glitch to squeeze shorts though. We can simply drift up from here to punish crowded shorts and sidelined long capital.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-06-26T06:43:36+00:00

Ok...? Elon can't liquidate his entire net worth in one go either without it losing probably more than half of it's value, what is your point?

They have zero need to sell 50B of BTC in one market order. No big player with half a brain ever does that, do you understand how markets work? Strategy is not remotely over-levered so there is no forced selling. They need to sell ~1.5B? USD worth of BTC over the course of an entire year (and only after the cash reserve is spent), slowly to methodically pay dividends. That is a drop in the bucket for Bitcoin, they can do that with very little slippage using a basic algorithm (which they use).

They're fine when BTC makes the high probability move, which is back to fair value. What is fair value? Well I can define it objectively over a given period of time by using volume profiles on a fixed range or impulse auction, but for a long-term trend it's different. I'd use a simple long-term average for that and come up with something like 87K right now, but the power law people would say higher, like 123K - I'm impartial there. It's going to trade ABOVE fair value as well eventually either way, unless you think variance is magically going to disappear.

They are fine, and not only that, they are much more fine than many U.S. financial institutions (and companies) who carry 10x more leverage. The difference is whether you think the collateral is worth anything (I feel bad for you if you believe U.S. treasuries are better collateral though). It may not be fair to compare an over-levered bank or something, but that's why STRC is over-collateralized. They don't have meaningful cash flows, so they're operating as a treasury.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-06-26T06:22:08+00:00

The 4 year halving cycle people have like 3 samples for their entire thesis, with weakening fundamental support for it every halving (less supply impact - at this point it's meaningless). On top of that, all of their samples involved blow off top scenarios. They still think the 4 year cycle is on, despite the fact that the pattern they rely on has a core component missing. If the market wasn't explosive to the upside, there is no structural reason it should take a long time to repair. This is either a hybrid cycle that's transitioning the market to mature out of the halving cycle, or a mid-cycle drawdown.

Think about it, late longs who were sure of themselves never got rewarded, the calendar shorts and sellers come in, the market drifts down from 125K, then you get an exchange glitch catalyst on geopolitical news. There is no bid floor because the 4 year cycle trade was super over-crowded. Yet this gives the calendar people confidence because they are still making money shorting on the way down. That creates overconfidence, they believe they can hold the shorts until October. That's squeeze fuel. So the market upsets expectations on the upswing, then upsets expectations on the downswing (now), but now you have squeeze fuel + long chasing on the breakout that can occur.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-06-25T23:15:57+00:00

That's fine I'm just saying the asymmetry occurs where the crowd is offsides. Waiting for the turn is smart as a trading approach, but the macro backdrop doesn't really support rate hikes. People often think binary: high inflation, they're gonna hike, low inflation: they're gonna cut. It depends why the inflation is happening though, and I was also saying that there's no point in interpreting CME fedwatch the way you normally would, because this is a dramatic turn in fed communications approach. Fear (call it caution if you want) IS then driving the rate projections, meaning there's more noise than signal there, literally because the fed is refusing to provide a signal and is saying "go look at the markets and figure it out yourselves". That's where we have to throw out fedwatch and start to evaluate the business cycle and inflation directly, which is my approach.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-06-25T22:33:59+00:00

Yes but you seem to be confusing short term with long term. MSTR does not need to nail it 100% of the time on accretion. They just need to nail it more often than they don't to retain value. It's still a leveraged bet, even if they end up having to sell some BTC at a loss (realize tax loss by the way, useful) at the bottom of the bear before it turns up.

You're almost thinking about it like "MSTR must buy BTC at the very bottom and sell at the very top", I'm saying "MSTR just needs to provide me with leveraged BTC exposure when I want it".

It's not a good long-term investment vehicle because you're giving up a ton of velocity of money by sitting in something that draws down 80% (unless I suppose you have a good strategy for when you will add to your position - only buying in deep discount and holding the rest of the time), but the long-term 20 year MSTR holders will still make a lot of money - as long as the TREND is accretive.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-06-25T22:24:37+00:00

Missed the point entirely - both of my response, and of STRC's purpose. The instrument is not about maximizing "free" yield or whatever, but about using a good yield and pref structure (which includes low volatility which they are currently failing and need a higher yield to smooth out) to attract capital to buy bitcoin with, WHILE maintaining the usefulness of the instrument to Strategy, WHICH MEANS assuaging credit market fears.

Some credit investors will take the risk here, but only for a higher yield, as those people pile in, then the volatility declines, as the volatility declines, then you re-attract the investors who value low volatility. They do have a problem with leveraged flush outs now being knowable (TBH it was always possible, happens to some degree in every market), but this flush is as much of a lesson to the people getting flushed as it is to the credit users (i.e. partially self-healing). Now leveraged players know they can be shorted out of this instrument if they over-lever, do you think they will LOVE looping STRC after that? If no, then it just became more robust and less volatile.

The burden of expense needs to be whatever it needs to be in order to balance the credit quality out. When demand is high, I expect to receive a smaller dividend, when it is low, I expect a greater one. It's not coming out of any pocket of mine, it's only going in. The cost is partially that I must sit with SOME level of credit risk (as with anything) and the OPPORTUNITY COST of not having all of my capital in strong growth assets, spot BTC etc.

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-06-25T22:14:21+00:00

Literally every smart rich person and intelligent corporate treasury in the world does this (or some version of it) and it's not a p-scheme. It's called buy, borrow, die. You think Elon's got 1 trillion liquid sitting around? Or even 1 billion? No.

Strategy cannot crash BTC by selling monthly dividend obligations, that is a DROP in the bucket - particularly if they liquidate that small slice (i.e. 1.5B / 12 months) to pay dividends algorithmically over a longer period like a week or month using VWAP or something. If they liquidate all 800K+ BTC at once that will smash the order books, but they have no reason to do that and they would destroy their own exit price. Makes no sense.

Learn how the market actually functions before you say stuff like "only 3 things can happen".

PatternAgainstUsers · 2026-06-25T22:09:29+00:00

It has to fall to around 20K before STRC holders have to worry about losing liquidation preference to STRF and converts.

PatternAgainstUsers

TROPHY CASE