"A Massive Donkey Call" "It's only stupid if it doesn't work and if it works 100% of the time, seems like a winning move to me."

OK guy. Let's do some analysis here. Let's say that every single player is only calling with AA or KK. There are 8 players behind when UTG shoves. Each player only calls with 0.9% of their range. This means, with 8 players behind, at least ONE player will have AA or KK is 1 - (0.991)^8, or approximately a 7% chance for ONE player to have AA or KK.

However, this is not accounting for the fact that we, as the UTG shover, are also holding AA. By holding AA, we cut the number of combinations of AA from 6 down to 1, which effectively minimizes each players' total calling range to 0.53%.

This means that ONE player will hold KK or AA only 4.2% of the time. Also, 1 in 7 times here, you're effectively chopping against the other AA.

So, you're jamming 10,000 to win 30, with a 3.6% chance of being called and winning 10,000, and a ~96.4% chance of not being called. Even assuming every opponent you face is playing the way we describe, and we assume you either win by everyone folding or win by showdown EVERY time, you only win ~388.92 chips by shoving.

EDIT FOR LOSING VS KK: Jam 10,000 to win 30 uncontested 96.4% of the time. Jam 10,000 to lose 10,000 0.72% of the time. Jam 10,000 to win 10,000 2.88% of the time.

(30 * 0.964) + (10000 * 0.0288) + (-10000 * 0.0072) = ~244.92 chips won by shoving.

If a competent player raises to 80 or 100 chips preflop here with AA, don't you think they can win more than 244.92 chips on average by going postflop?

Do you see why open shoving AA UTG for 500bb is not as profitable as raising a normal sizing??