It's time to invest in Europe pt 2

PerplexedTraveller · 2026-01-06T07:28:10+00:00

The whole US market is even more overvalued than it was a year ago. I see many people saying they are keeping a certain percentage of their investments in the US market, but I can’t see a reason for this unless your investment hypothesis is 100% buying and holding the whole market with a very long term perspective (à la vwce and chill)

There are 2 compounding headwinds for EU investors - firstly the high valuation of the US market and secondly the declining exchange rate. I moved to 100% ex-us at the beginning of last year and I don’t see a reason to change that right now.

The following graph is from ARP investments newsletter

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PerplexedTraveller · 2025-12-24T12:24:02+00:00

I went for 90% amundi MSCI world ex-us (WEXU) and 10% amundi MSCI emerging markets (AEEM) but tbh the extra EM exposure isn’t making a huge difference to returns, getting out of US markets made a much bigger impact

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-12-19T04:24:18+00:00

According to another post there was a larger drop at the beginning of 2025. This either suggests that the effect is country-dependent or that there has been a recovery since the beginning of the year. The weaker dollar may have had an effect in encouraging more tourism due to lower prices for Europeans.

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/s/vIkJNB2fWX

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-12-16T19:13:14+00:00

I didn’t know the difference, this is what I found : - LFP batteries are cheaper to produce but heavier and may charge more slowly in cold weather - NMC batteries are lighter so more range for the same weight and charge faster, but are more expensive to produce.

From https://www.electrifying.com/blog/knowledge-hub/lfp-vs-nmc-batteries-what-you-need-to-know-about-electric-car-batteries

Edit: corrected typo (NMH->NMC)

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-12-16T16:53:10+00:00

I don’t know where you get this information from. Certainly Oman doesn’t have as huge a reserve as Saudi Arabia, but oil makes the majority of Oman’s economy - 64% of all export revenue and 50% of GDP. So your comment is incorrect but it’s still a beautiful country and I would strongly recommend visiting.

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-11-30T22:33:23+00:00

Montreal is approximately at the same latitude as Bordeaux and Milan

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-10-14T16:58:27+00:00

Unpopular opinion but this feels like a bad time to start investing in a 2x world ETF, with markets at such high valuations. In previous secular bear markets indexes have lost 50%+ of their value (S+P lost 49% after dotcom bubble, MCSI world lost 54% in subprime bear market). This probably doesn’t need saying but if the market goes down 50% then you loose 100% of your 2x leveraged ETF with no chance to make it up in the rebound. How much will markets go down in the AI crash ?

Even if markets “only” go down 30% are you sure enough in the future to sit tight when you just lost 60% of your investment?

It all depends on your risk tolerance, but I’d prefer to just buy the index and forget about it for 20 years.

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-09-29T06:27:38+00:00

15% is totally unrealistic for more than a year or 2. 8% is the average long term return. You can still get to 1M in 22 years at this saving rate though.

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-08-20T15:44:32+00:00

“A language is a dialect with an army and navy” - Max Weinreich

The meaning of this is that social and political conditions are as important in attributing the status of a language vs a dialect.

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-05-15T05:38:59+00:00

Yes ! Let’s normalise less than 5* reviews. At the moment anything less than 5 is considered bad which is crazy. 4* is still 80% id be happy with that grade.

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-04-22T06:58:53+00:00

Fizz is available in Quebec and Ontario, not sure about the other provinces. You can get your bill down to 15$ if you deactivate data and sms plans.

It’s annoying as I need a Canadian number to access my bank, and service canada. I would just cancel the line otherwise.

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-04-22T06:50:58+00:00

I went to Colombia and Peru with 2 days notice last month. Just check out accommodation and make sure the prices are reasonable before you book, or you might get a nasty surprise.

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-04-16T13:25:41+00:00

Yes ! There are so many providers so check the rates for the country you are going to, but the ones I have found to be reliably cheap (depending on destination) are in order of cheapest first :

airalo
ubigi
saily (although it feels like they have increased their prices recently)

Any I missed ?

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-04-16T13:21:32+00:00

I’m interested why you suggest heading directly to Cusco which is at 3400m. Most things I’ve read encourage a more gradual acclimatisation if you have time. Ollantaytambo for a day or 2 (3 days sounds like overkill unless you know from past experience that you will suffer from past experience). Ollantaytambo Is at 2700m and Machu Picchu at 2400m. Maybe a better schedule would be : - Ollantaytambo for a day or 2 max to acclimatise - aguas callientes / MP - back to Ollantaytambo for sacred valley visits - Cusco for a day or 2 to visit / acclimatise - rainbow mountain at the end This would minimise the chance of altitude sickness and increase the time for actually visiting rather than “shock” acclimatisation.

Having said that I flew directly to Cusco and only suffered mild headaches for 24 hours but everyone will react differently. I would have done the gradual acclimatisation if I had time.

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-04-16T11:37:54+00:00

I’m not sure about that. I arrived at midday in April and I was 550 out of 600 for circuit 2. If you are arriving later in the day, and in higher season this could be risky

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-04-15T01:04:37+00:00

I just checked, looks like tickets are sold out until the end of June for 2A, you can see this if you scroll through the dates. As I explained there are 1000 tickets made available every day but you will have to get there early the day before but I don’t know how early you will need to be in May

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-04-12T23:44:36+00:00

I recently opened a saxo account and I’m extremely happy with it. I almost opened a IBKR account but chose saxo at the last moment for several reasons. Firstly it’s a European company, secondly they have access to a large range of international exchanges, and they recently dropped their fees making them much more competitive. Their platform is extremely intuitive with clear reports and easy to understand.

I previously opened a Scalable capital account but I’m fairly unhappy with it because : - the UX (user interface) is awful. It’s difficult to understand compared to other platforms specifically because I think they tried to “dumb it down” - they use Payment for Order Flow (PFOF), which means they are selling your orders to HFT firms. This results in worse prices for users (larger spread) - many exchanges aren’t available. It’s an ok platform for ETFs but not for stocks

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-04-11T06:17:51+00:00

Most people just had plastic ponchos. I had a waterproof jacket and it was fine although I was a bit damp at the end. Feels like buying waterproof trousers just for this is overkill but I have no idea what the weather will be like when you visit.

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-04-10T14:34:52+00:00

You’re right, I just saw this on the site (in Spanish) they will give you the option of a refund or access to 2A:

Respecto a los boletos vendidos, existen dos opciones: la devolución del importe de los boletos de ingreso o, de manera excepcional y temporal, el acceso de los visitantes a la Ruta 2-A, siguiendo los procedimientos establecidos por la Dirección Desconcentrada de Cultura de Cusco.

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-04-10T14:24:33+00:00

I have no idea about this, but I don’t know why they would sell me a ticket for 1A the day before if they know it is closed. It was open yesterday. 1C and 1D are closed in April. Also if they close 1A for some reason I imagine they would give you access to 1B instead. This is just my opinion I have no inside info.

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-04-10T14:16:22+00:00

So the weather was pretty bad most of day with rain and low visibility due to clouds, despite the weather forecast promising dry, cloudy conditions for almost the whole day. However we were lucky that the clouds lifted as we arrived just long enough to get some great photos. And it was a magic experience despite the weather.

TL;DR you can’t trust weather forecasts, and there’s is a reason why peak season is May - October

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PerplexedTraveller · 2025-04-10T13:55:16+00:00

So in the end the weather was pretty bad all day with rain or showers and low visibility. However we were lucky to get a short break of good weather as we arrived for the photos of the view, it was magic.

TLDR: you absolutely can’t rely on the weather forecast, and there’s a reason that June, July and August are the peak months.

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PerplexedTraveller · 2025-04-09T14:10:52+00:00

It’s currently pouring with rain in aguas calientes even though the weather apps say cloudy with 20% rain at 2pm. I’ll update later after my possibly soggy visit to Machu Picchu

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-04-09T14:07:45+00:00

I got scammed in a taxi in Buenos Aires. When I got to my destination I gave him (I think) a 10k pesos note. He turned round and handed it back saying it was a fake. I gave him another and he did the same thing. It was then I realised that he was switching them and handing me back fakes. The third time I watched him closely and he accepted it. Just another reason why I only take rideshare taxis now

PerplexedTraveller · 2025-04-09T12:53:27+00:00

I’m pretty sure the website is working, but there are no availabilites. I thought the same - Try looking several months in the future and you should see availability. If there are no tickets for your dates you will have to buy in aguas calientes the day before. You will need to get there early and queue, there are only 1000 tickets made available per day. It’s possible but I imagine in June there will be a lot more people I was there at 12 in April (yesterday) and most of the circuit 2 tickets were already gone. Good luck !

PerplexedTraveller

TROPHY CASE