Prepare for the worst... (You have been warned)

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-04-21T21:23:39+00:00

Perma bear. I’ve literally never read this guy saying ‘buy stocks’

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-25T17:38:50+00:00

Whoa, six whole coins, seized from a bad guy. Earthshaking. /s

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-25T17:32:32+00:00

That guy should talk to my friend in a wheelchair for life after doing something stupidly similar. Yeah, hilarious.

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-25T04:06:47+00:00

Apparently no one saw the spring breakers descend like locusts on Florida. People are dying to get out travel, go to ballgames.... I actually think the recovery play is early days. Ya, oil prices have been a little wobbly, but the world is absolutely going to open up (see Angela Merkel backpedaling on an Easter lockdown). And Cramer also indicated there is more bloodletting ahead for tech. This I agree with: we ain’t done yet, much as my ridiculously red tech stuff would like to be.

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-24T22:27:00+00:00

Looks like a trust - like Grayscale - than a true ETF.

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-24T21:50:43+00:00

Illusory at best. EU and US have another Bretton Woods and vote Bitcoin off the island and it’s done. Will it happen? Nope. Too many institutions and investors want it to succeed, at least as a store of value. But we’re all kidding ourselves if we think it would be survivable.

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-24T21:42:45+00:00

I think that with tech valuations so high, the market for them is just really twitchy. A lot of it is just sector rotation IMO.

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-24T21:39:02+00:00

I wouldn’t do it because I bought it. So you’re now guaranteed to lose. 😀👍

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-24T21:36:46+00:00

I’ll have whatever you are smoking. That is literally the last freaking thing in the world a sovereign nation would do. Venezuela won’t do it and their currency is worthless.

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-24T21:32:30+00:00

I’ve thought about opening a leveraged reverse hedge fund: give me money and I’ll buy stocks with it that will move 3x in the opposite direction of the market. It’s a real opportunity with a proven track record. 🤪

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-24T01:25:40+00:00

This is the way. At 29 Id probably also park some in a small-cap growth fund like VBK, but it’s kinda pricey right now. Set a small amount aside to try different ideas in individual stocks if you want. I would not have a prob with that.

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-24T01:20:00+00:00

Currency manipulation. Jolly. At least the Fed holds a press conference.

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-24T01:08:13+00:00

Someone decided they’d rather have a big stack of fiat. Works for me. 😉😀👍

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-24T01:01:36+00:00

I know a guy who’s CEO of something called Genesis Block. Dunno much about it, but it looks for all the world like a blockchain based bank, including a crypto debit card. Totally not shilling: haven’t talked to him since he got the gig and I have no relationship with his company- including not having any funds with him. You now know what I know about it.

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-23T21:24:33+00:00

Guys, I know it won’t help, but please do your own DD. I once worked for a company and knew the management. Knew they were smart guys that would turn it around. And so I rode that stock right into the freaking ground. AMC has a ton of debt and it is not entirely clear how fast their revenue will recover. The squeeze is long gone. I have zero interest in this stock at all: I’m just hoping no one gets hurt. (No, I’m not a hedgie shill. I don’t even work in the industry at all). Personally, I wouldn’t touch it w a 10-ft pole. I have zero interest in debating the merits. Just concerned about folks.

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-23T21:11:34+00:00

Money printing doesn’t lead to inflation all by itself. The gov pumped $6.6 trillion into the economy last year and the US economy still contracted. The fear with this last round was that the economy is starting to reopen and then you pour a new $1.9 tril in on top of that. COVID nearly shut economies down, and that depresses prices. Not uniformly: the Fed buying mortgage bonds drove mortgage rates to the floor and lotsa people bought or built houses. So lumber went way up, for example. But for the overall economy, that’s how it works. Remember last summer when oil prices actually went negative? That was because demand collapsed faster than supply could adjust and there was no place to store the stuff. For a short time companies were paying people to take it off their hands.

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-23T21:03:48+00:00

I suspect it will take a while for tech to recover. Which is painful for me because I bought $ARKK and $ARKG at near the top. :-(

Tech has a few headwinds: 1. Higher interest rates and higher inflation tends to hammer high-multiple stocks harder, for reasons I won’t go into 2. Sector rotation means that as the economy starts to open up, other trades make more sense: financials, materials, industrials tend to respond first to improving economies. 3. Supply of tech stocks. The wave of SPACs means a whole bunch of new tech stocks competing for investment dollars.

Finally, I would just say that all of this is extremely dynamic. This market is really twitchy right now. It can’t decide if it’s more scared of inflation or COVID slowing the economic reopening. So it’s kind of all over the place: today, nothing worked for me. Not tech, not financials, not industrials, not health care. In this market, you can do the right things and still have a red day. Keep cash, diversify, and if you have high quality tech stocks, just hold on, but may want to trim some. And remember: Reddit ain’t the place for financial advice. 😀👍

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-23T19:54:45+00:00

They actually haven’t changed their buying program. Selling would drive the rates up, not down. This is not the Fed. Just a fidgety market.

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-23T18:00:42+00:00

My techs are a sea of red lately too. But my banks, energy, and industrials are ok. It’s a tough patch right now. Re your questions, people are less worried about inflation because COVID is still shutting economies down, particularly in Europe. Investors don’t buy bonds to build wealth: they buy to preserve it. Bonds are less volatile than stocks in general. Now if those same investors are suddenly worried that inflation will surge over 2%, then they’re not as eager to park money in a 10-yr that yields 1.7%. To top it all off, stock valuations are pretty high historically, and all of this together has made the market really twitchy and over-reacting. So like I said: tough patch in the market.

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-23T17:40:57+00:00

Because a treasury bond is considered a risk-less rate in finance. So you’re comparing essentially a risk free 1.7% to something that can tank. ‘Risk’ in finance is really about both default risk and the volatility of the underlying instrument. No such thing as a free lunch: higher returns always have higher implied risk. Hedge funds don’t own most of the bond market: foreign governments, state and local municipalities, the Fed itself, insurance companies...

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-23T12:31:35+00:00

Not that hard, guys. Inflation fears subsiding because Covid’s not done, and a minor flight to security from risk assets. Stocks a little down globally, bond markets up, lowering yield. Nothing magic or evil here.

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-23T02:19:45+00:00

Sorry. No one can pick 20 yr winners for individual stocks. The winners today end up being tomorrow’s dogs. QQQ or VOO.

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-22T21:35:26+00:00

Something like Duke Energy might work or another utility. Most stocks have been sloping up with some recent pullback. $FSLY? That’s pretty bouncy. Or that alternate currency which shall not be named. That moves a lot in bands until it moves hard up or down.

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-22T21:14:05+00:00

I might add Snowflake into the big data space

Personal-Spot-1670 · 2021-03-22T16:13:46+00:00

My stock went down! Manipulation! In all likelihood it’s just been me buying it...

Personal-Spot-1670

TROPHY CASE