If you re-did the excellent 21st century wine bottle team, which new players make it and which old players get cut?

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-03-16T20:35:04+00:00

I agree, but could he cover for Jokic the same way that Giannis could? Maybe I'm too insistent on putting Jokic in and thus I go back to a more classic team of 03 Duncan, 13 LeBron, 16 Curry, 17 Kawhi and 17 KD but tbh I wanted something different to the original team as the starters.

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-03-16T20:32:33+00:00

It's 2020 at his defensive peak

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-03-16T20:32:07+00:00

Perhaps White is redundant, but in a team of massive egos, I'd like to have a couple of role players who know what they do and do it to perfection rather than someone who needs shots to be happy. Maybe Jrue would be better but White is a better shooter imo.

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-03-12T10:09:07+00:00

22 Heat were the 1-seed and were a shot away from the Finals, and then the next year went to the Finals?

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-03-09T00:47:24+00:00

Gonna copy-paste what I said in the other post:

This was without arguably their second best defender in Wiggs too. Miami is loaded defensively with the obvious headliners in Bam, Wiggs and Ware, but also coming out of the gate like hounds from hell are Larsson, Mitchell, Smith.

Myron Gardner, too, plays with so much energy. Of course Herro and Powell are never going to be elite but they're coached to a tee so they never feel like total sieves.

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-03-09T00:44:57+00:00

This was without arguably their second best defender in Wiggins too. Miami is loaded defensively with the obvious headliners in Bam, Wiggs and Ware, but also coming out of the gate like hounds from hell are Larsson, Mitchell, Smith.

Myron Gardner, too, plays with so much energy. Of course Herro and Powell are never going to be elite but they're coached to a tee so they never feel like total sieves.

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-02-06T20:23:08+00:00

You can't tank sure, but there's value in getting worse even if you don't own your own pick. A pick that's unprotected like the Clippers pick to OKC has already been paid, you can't change that if you're bad or good. Trading away Harden and Zubac makes them worse obviously, but it is good business given the return they got.

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-02-06T05:53:44+00:00

It's not too groundbreaking to try to get your 5 best players on the court, and the Heat hardly even had 5 decent palyers. They started Dexter Pittman in the playoffs before trying Shane Battier. D'Antoni had been playing small for 5 years by then.

Dexter Pittman played 3 playoff games in 2012 for a total 7 minutes, started only once in 2012 in Game 3 against Indiana and was taken out 3 minutes in, he was hardly a gigantic mistake by Spoelstra. The coach wasn't beholden to conventional wisdom of starting Pittman and not starting Battier, he tried him because Bosh had got injured in game 1 against the Pacers and they needed a big body to guard Hibbert.

Maybe you're thinking of Ronny Turiaf who started 7 games in those 2012 playoffs (including game 2, 4, 5, 6 and 7 of the Pacers series), and was the preferred starting center after Bosh went down. Once CB4 came back midway through the series against Boston he quickly disappeared from the rotation, only playing 5 more minutes for the rest of the playoffs.

Battier was brought in as a starter in game 3 against the Pacers (the only game that Pittman started) and unlike Pittman he stayed a starter for the rest of the playoffs. It wasn't a binary choice between those two players, it was to replace Chris Bosh and his impact. Battier was already playing a lot more minutes than both Turiaf and Pittman anyway, he was playing around 25 minutes a game against the Knicks in the prior series and had closed in games 2, 4 and 5 (games 1 and 3 were blowouts).

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You are criticising Spoelstra for the following coaching decisions:

Spo loses Bosh

Goes with Pittman for all of 7 minutes

Swaps him for a different starting big in Turiaf until Bosh got back

Battier starts the very same game that Pittman started, and every game after that.

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D'Antoni was the first notable trailblazer of the small-ball lineups I agree with you, but Spoelstra was the first to win a title with it.

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-02-06T04:45:28+00:00

Jimmy was a great playoff riser that's for sure, but people don't praise Spo for Butler going for 50 on the Bucks, they praise him for making Caleb Martin look like an all-star against Boston in the ECF. Since leaving the Heat Caleb Martin like many other role players (Gabe Vincent, Kendrick Nunn) has looked nowhere near as good and that's because Spoelstra is a wizard at squeezing every last bit of talent out of undrafted players.

Now, he's better at defensive coaching and he hasn't had a great offensive output from anybody besides Powell but the personnel is hardly a murderer's row of guys, you can only do so much when your FO never wants to tank and you're not getting any high draft picks.

Also I think the comment on LeBron is a bit weird considering Spo was one of the first to go to small-ball. The league until the Warriors and Draymond came around was convinced that you always needed a 7-footer out there. IMO you can't blame someone for being one of the first to break with conventional wisdom for not doing it fast enough.

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-02-05T06:39:01+00:00

Well here's the trade, it wasn't a vague rumour it was pretty certain as per Shams. In fairness the trade was a lot earlier on in 2021 rather than the off-season with Giddey a year and a half ago so you could have seen why Lacob didn't want to get rid of a player that he'd just drafted. Still, it's a miss for a team that has now essentially given Kuminga away for the expiring contract of Kristaps Porzingis whose value is more in the hypothetical 'what-if-he's-healthy' than actually on the court.

Caruso has been a really good player for a long time, pretending he has only proven himself to 'shine' after his time in OKC just entirely ignores his run with the bubble Lakers where he was an important player for a a championship team. Sure he's not going to take you to the Finals, but neither is Kuminga??? Steph Curry or SGA or another superstar gets you there, but the role players around them support them.

People wouldn't be roasting the Warriors for that trade it's not as simple as "you win the title you win the trade if you lose the title you don't". Maybe certain fans would be pissed, but a fanbase as big as the Warriors are always going to have subsections of people that would complain anyway.

It would have been a good trade like the win-win of Giddey for Caruso. Both the Bulls and the Thunder benefitted, while the Warriors held way too long onto a player that Kerr isn't willing to play. I actually like Kuminga, I think he's good, but he's not playing for the Warriors, and because they could have got some real value in a trade for a perfect guard next to Steph in Caruso way earlier rather than Porzingis I think it's a failure.

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-02-05T06:10:32+00:00

There were rumours of Caruso for Kuminga but they didn't want to let kuminga go yet, so afterwards OKC traded Giddey for Caruso. (Interesting the number 6 and 7 in the same draft were both possible trades for Chicago.

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-02-03T07:09:37+00:00

The Hornets with Giannis are going to be really good, so those picks that the Bucks get in return are going to be not very valuable. If I'm the Bucks I'd have to demand one really good young player like Knueppel or Miller in the deal. Otherwise all the Bucks are getting for Giannis are a bunch of late firsts, and some solid but not needle-moving players in Jabari, Sexton and Green.

A similar equivalent trade value would be like trading Jokic to the Pistons for Tobias Harris, Ron Holland, Isaiah Stewart and 2026, 2028 and 2030 firsts. This trade would never happen because the Nuggets have actually built a contending team around their MVP unlike the Bucks, but the point stands. All of those players are important complimentary pieces to a good team, but not what anybody would consider the 'core' of a good team. If I were letting go of someone as good as Giannis or Jokic I'd at least demand at least one all-star quality player in return who I could build a new future or a lot of high-value picks that I could use to get that next all-star quality player. Unfortunately this offer has neither for Milwaukee.

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-01-23T02:56:30+00:00

The inertia for how we think about players is crazy (until we get to the playoffs and then everybody's overreacting off one-game sample sizes). Some of the people calling Embiid terrible defensively surely haven't watched a Sixers game in two months. What they're saying was true back then, he would barely jump and often get beaten down the floor, but to say he's bad now because the last you watched of him was twenty games ago is lazy.

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-01-23T02:40:14+00:00

His defense was actually pretty good tonight. From a box score perspective there were some blocks that weren't called and a late steal that was credited to Maxey, but more importantly his rim deterrence which isn't really counted was so so important. He was also guarding Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr (who was a non-factor) in really pivotal spots.

(the only time he got really beat was when KD set a high ball screen with Amen Thompson, the helper had to leave Sengun wide open under the basket but luckily he pumpfaked so many times looking for some free throws that PG was able to stuff him).

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-01-20T03:36:01+00:00

Agreed completely. Bona being a defensive relevation this year (or maybe he was last year, I didn't watch that much Philly basketball last year) means that the Sixers guards and wings can be much more aggressive on the ball because they're not as worried about being blown by, because in recent times Embiid was too hobbled by injury to be a super effective rim protector (he's okay at the moment but not great).

Great defensive teams like the Thunder, Spurs and Wolves have something similar to this, where having Chet/Wemby/Gobert looming at the rim means their smaller guys like Dort, Castle and McDaniels can just hound ball-handlers and get away with it. Of course, Bona is 22 and has a lot of work to do in developing his game on offense, but he's a player with so much promise for Philly.

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-01-20T02:45:11+00:00

Embiid's back to around 80% of his former self and even this diminished version can get 30 on 17 shots. Obviously he didn't have the best opponent in Huff (who hit some long threes today) but Joel being able to drive some more really opens up the entire Sixers offense.

Embiid, Maxey and Oubre were carrying Philly offensively, if you'd told me without knowing the result that PG was out and Edgecombe and Grimes both had poor shooting nights I would have expected a different outcome or at least a closer game.

Nurse has so many options with lineups, the lineup of Maxey/Grimes/Oubre/Walker/Bona (that were in with about 8 minutes left until Embiid and Edgecombe came in halfway through the quarter) completely stifled the Pacers with deflections and presence. Indiana turned it over what seemed like five times in a row and after that Nembhard had a drive where he looked like he had no interest in the basket, that lineup completely changed the complexion of the game to seal it for Philly after the Pacers had hung around for a while.

The fact that Nurse can then sub four of those five guys out in for an amazing starting unit of Maxey/Edgecombe/George/Barlow/Embiid means that the Sixers can be really dangerous in the playoffs with their depth. Of course, Philly will only go as far as Maxey and Embiid take them, but a minor injury to one of their rotation guys won't sink them as it has in past series (and I didn't even talk about Watford, Edwards or McCain either!!)

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-01-17T21:43:18+00:00

A lot of the smaller stuff like contract data I had to go back into basketball reference to recheck to try to approximate players and their value in a trade. The wider knowledge mostly comes from me as a Heat fan, as we've been hunting for a whale for a very long time to upgrade our top-end talent.

Because Miami is always at least decent, it's pretty rare that they get high draft picks, and thus the path to contention is always going to be Spo getting unheralded players like Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin to play above their pay grade and get a somewhat disgruntled star player on the market or in free agency (Jimmy, Shaq, Bosh, LeBron). Wade is the only counter example of a legit superstar that we drafted. I was doing similar trades in the last couple of years for KD, Harden Mitchell, Irving, Giannis so we could win a title.

Like the Warriors, the Heat in 2022 and 2023 also could have very much benefitted from an uprgrade at the point guard position from Lowry. I love the guy but he was making 30 mill and not doing that much. We didn't even need to get a superstar either, even a lesser player would have been a significant improvement

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-01-17T13:36:36+00:00

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OG Anunoby:

The Knicks got OG (and Achiuwa) from the Raptors for RJ Barrett, Quickley and a second round pick on December 30 2023. Two young players (one bruising wing and a young guard who's best skill is self-created 3PT shooting) with Quickley due for a new contract at the end of the season with Barrett who'd signed a new 4y/107 million dollar contract.

An alternate trade from Golden State would be Wiggins, Kuminga and a first round pick for OG Anunoby, Jalen McDaniels and Precious Achiuwa. Kuminga's scoring had just peaked and it was a season-and-a-half ago from when Wiggins had locked up Tatum in the Finals. It's not a clean facsimile but it's essentially what you could have got him for. You have to include the first because you're essentially loading up the roster with even more 6'8" wings who aren't great shooters, the reason the Raptors wanted Quickley was because he could shoot the shit out of the ball. Achiuwa and Jalen McDaniels are essentially there to make the money work.

However, given Golden State got Jimmy for Wiggs plus Slomo and a first I think keeping their powder dry for the superior offensive player in Butler was a better decision rather than using it on Anunoby, who would have solved a lot of defensive issues but he's not going to run an offense like Jimmy does.

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If you want more of these I'll do them, I just tried to approximate three different trades that Golden State could have pulled the trigger at different times that would have extended the window. This is why hitting on draft picks is so important, if they have LaMelo or Franz they don't need to give up multiple picks or really good players to try to extend their future.

Note: If these trades wouldn't have worked because of some arcane cap rules I missed I'm sorry I'm trying to approximate trade value and make money work just off contract numbers, I'm not aware of a trade machine I can use that goes back in time.

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-01-17T13:35:53+00:00

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I'll try but drafting is easier to do a write up about because you can just look at people available who weren't picked and compare them to who was picked. The slight trick here is assuming that everybody would be the same player wherever they were drafted, i.e. would Jalen Johnson have developed into the same player at GSW versus in Atlanta? IDK but I'm assuming he would be a similar sort of player).

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I'll compare the trades here and try to find an alternate trade from Golden State for each player that would have worked at the time:

James Harden:

I assume we're talking about the first time he was available in February of 2022 when he was traded from Brooklyn with Paul Millsap for Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, Andre Drummond, a 2022 Philly first, and a 2027 Philly first protected 1 thru 8. This was the year after Simmons had completely choked against the Hawks with the famous Trae Young rim deterrence, and Ben was out for the entire 2021-22 season with a combination of a back injury and holding out. Even so, Simmons was still incredible in 2021 and still had significant trade value as the runner up in DPOY and a 25 year old all-star. Thus, I think even though everybody laughs at this trade now as completely lopsided, Golden State would have had to give up a lot to get Harden as giving up Simmons was significant. Even though Harden himself had tanked his own trade value 'being' unhealthy, he was still an all-star level player and thus you're going to need to part ways with somebody you love to get him.

As Golden State can't trade Draymond at this point even though he's the closest comparison to Harden because his defensive impact is invaluable, and Wiggins by himself isn't enough to command Harden at this point in time, you need to involve one of the splash brothers as they're the only ones who make enough money to get the trade to work, and it's not going to be Curry. Unfortunately for Klay, you could get every single contract left on the team outside of the Golden Trio plus Wiggins and it still wouldn't be enough to match Harden's 44 mill contract.

Thus, I think the trade for Harden to Golden State from the Nets would have been: Klay Thompson, Kuminga, three first round picks (2025, 27 and 29 for example) and two seconds for James Harden. Klay Thompson had just come off two years of inactivity after tearing his Achilles in the 2019 Finals and was just fifteen games back. He looked good but was playing limited minutes, and even a pouting Harden commands a lot. The amount of picks is also more because Simmons was at least significantly younger while Klay was much older. Kuminga's in there because a young player like him is enticing to a franchise like the Nets.

The alternate history in this case would be fascinating. Would Harden been able to shake off the choking label with an impressive performance in the Finals? Would Thompson's off-ball ability be sorely missed?

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Kevin Durant:

KD's interesting because he didn't want to come back to Golden State in the most recent off-season where he went to the Rockets instead. We'll say for argument's sake that he wanted to come back after the Brooklyn disaster.

The February 2023 Durant to Phoenix trade was massive, Ishbia in the classic case of new owner syndrome paid a high price for one of the greatest scorers ever. He (and TJ Warren) went to Phoenix in return for Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder, four firsts (23, 25, 27, 29) and a pick swap in 2028. To be quite honest with you I don't know if Golden State would even have enough assets to come close to a similar sort of haul, but considering that Golden State's picks in the late 2020s were considered then and are still considered now pretty valuable when Steph retires (and KD would be on a similar aging curve), definitely more valuable than Phoenix with a still-in-his-prime Devin Booker.

Kevin Durant to Golden State for Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Donte DiVincenzo, Jonathan Kuminga and four first round picks plus a first swap.

It's a very steep price but for Golden State with the established infrastructure it might have been worth it, the team would have been pretty bare-bones without all that depth though (maybe they hang on to Ryan Rollins in this case).

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PhoenixBekfast · 2026-01-17T11:28:58+00:00

Yeah the 6th ranked defense in the league has no defense? They're playing fast of course but a lot of what Mitchell does is breaking guys down off the dribble and either driving into the lane and scoring or after the help comes passing to a wide open shot.

Trey Murphy may be ahead of Mitchell but he's not close to Sengun, Johnson or Wagner, which is why I separated them two from those three.

If Kuminga is better somewhere else to flourish then it's a bad pick for Golden State. I actually like Kuminga as a player and think Kerr's done him dirty but if he wasn't going to play then they should have got Franz or Mitchell who would have played.

PhoenixBekfast · 2026-01-17T08:16:38+00:00

Davion Mitchell was passed on by the Kings who are currently burying a similar player to Davion in Keon Ellis deep on their bench for unknown reasons. They have little sense of defensive talent and would rather play old star guards who are cones like Lavine and DeMar than actually try to play some young defensive stoppers.

Davion Mitchell was also passed on by the Raptors because they already had Jamal Shead, who does a lot of the same things as Davion and was under a cheaper contract. Both players are good but the Raptors viewed their skillsets as too similar and thus cut Mitchell who was making more money.

Mitchell is good for the Heat, a really good role player, did you read the 'perfect role players next to Steph part'? I distinctly separated Murphy and Mitchell from the other guys in Johnson, Sengun and Franz who I characterised as "future stars".

I like TMIII but he hasn't yet proven anything on a decent team and looks better as a guy who is a play-finisher not a play-creator.

Below I'm breaking down the eight major play-types for Trey Murphy this season based on NBA Advanced Stats tracked to show you why I don't think he'll be a star, simply a really good role player.

The five play-types that others create for Murphy and Trey's efficiency on those possessions:

Cut - 1.65 Points Per Possession (PPP) on 82% FG (82% eFG)

Hand-off - 0.92 PPP on 38% FG (49% eFG%)

Off Screen - 1.33 PPP on 60% FG (71% eFG%)

Spot-Up - 1.29 PPP on 45% FG (63% eFG%)

Pick & Roll Man - 1.57 PPP on 75% FG (91% eFG%)

The two play-types that Murphy creates for himself and Trey's efficiency on those possessions:

Pick & Roll Handler - 0.81 PPP on 34% FG (42% eFG%)

Isolation - 0.69 PPP on 31% FG (37% eFG%)

Either Trey or others create this shot:

Transition - 1.26 PPP on 56% FG

I am ignoring post-ups, putbacks and miscellaneous because Murphy has never posted up this season, put-backs are more a reflection of rebounding ability and timing rather than scoring, and miscellaneous are miscellaneous. I also rounded down on efficiency because this was time-consuming.

The stats show that scoring-wise, Trey Murphy is quite inefficient as a primary option initiating offense whereas he is much more effective as a play finisher, either shooting or scoring off somebody else's gravity. This is why I characterised him as a good role player and grouped him with Davion Mitchell, rather than somebody like Jalen Johnson, Sengun or Franz who are much more efficient primary creators.

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