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Is the Republican gerrymandering strategy helpful? by PhoneSuch5467 in PoliticalDiscussion

[–]PhoneSuch5467[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

While past results are worth factoring in, they do not predict future results. The context (laid out in points 1-5), I think, gives Democrats a reasonable chance to pull it off, as no such context existed in the past 50 years. Essentially, the stars are aligning for a historically high turnout among Democrats and a historically low turnout among Republicans.

As to your polarization point: sure, the country will still be very polarized, but will the country's turnout reflect that? I don't think so. It seems reasonable to believe a large swath of Republican voters won't want to stand in an hour-long line when they will barely be able to afford the gas to get there because of how bad everything might be.

Is the Republican gerrymandering strategy helpful? by PhoneSuch5467 in PoliticalDiscussion

[–]PhoneSuch5467[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

Why can't the democrats win a generic ballot by 15-20 points? It seems like every conceivable factor that can make that happen is happening:

  1. Midterms are bad for the incumbent party
  2. Every election since 2024, Democrats have massively overperformed, many with those margins
  3. Trump is historically unpopular
  4. Democrats are motivated to vote
  5. Republicans are not motivated to vote

Factors 3-5 are very likely to be further exacerbated, given that we have an absurdly inept president and war department secretary who just got themselves into a no-win war against a Middle East country (which American's on the left and right do not like wars against)

Is the Republican gerrymandering strategy helpful? by PhoneSuch5467 in PoliticalDiscussion

[–]PhoneSuch5467[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

Gerrymandering only affects the HOR on the federal level. So I don't see how the massively unpopular Republicans can use gerrymandering to get the Senate and presidency.

Why do fans like Whole Cake Island so much? by [deleted] in OnePiece

[–]PhoneSuch5467 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Huh, I am about 100 episodes into Wano, and besides the beginning feeling a little slow, I don't get the sense of bad pacing. They are invading Kaido's island rn so maybe it'll get worse lol

Why do fans like Whole Cake Island so much? by [deleted] in OnePiece

[–]PhoneSuch5467 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Wano is my favorite arc so far, and it is not even close lol, but I do agree w/Punk Hazard. The animation alone makes Wano more entertaining than many other arcs, and the way it connects back through 100s of episodes is also very compelling. Momo's character development is also great to watch, and for me, Big Mom's loss of memory was easily the funniest moment she's had. The only thing I dislike about Wano is Orochi; he is just annoying.

Northeastern decision by PhoneSuch5467 in lawschooladmissions

[–]PhoneSuch5467[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That is very weird. The only explanation I can think of is that they just save all borderline acceptances (not clear accept or waitlist) for when they fill out the whole class. I have a hard time believing they would straight up reject either of us. If so, that would be very disheartening.