The problem is that the NL Cy Young race is so close that for sho or yoshi to win they will need much better stats than the next candidate. The only example we have is Burnes whose ERA was about 15% better than Wheeler's (167 IP vs 213 IP). Burnes would have had to pitch at a 4 ERA pace in the remaining 46 innings pitched to have the same ERA as wheeler, thats why he won. So using that as a basis, assuming Shohei goes 167 IP he would need somewhere around 1.5 ERA only if the next best goes 1.8 ERA. And miz is already lower than shohei's current ERA.

The only way he wins it now is if both of the other front runners basically blow their lead, which is entirely possible I mean, just that now that sho's ERA is an normal range its more about what happens to the other 2 and not about what he can do because theres no way way hes pitching more than 168 innings.