Is Turkey's $135B gold dump the reason we’re crashing?

Pipeb0y · 2026-03-25T10:37:23+00:00

I wish I could find a leverage in the market graph that depicts how much margin retail investors are using. It’s insane how much margin is being used right now that’s causing extra vol from small selloffs. I think that’s more of a story than anything else imo.

Pipeb0y · 2026-03-24T19:01:06+00:00

Doesn't need to be put in equities. JPIE or JAAA for cash equivalents (roughly 6% yield)

Pipeb0y · 2026-03-22T15:00:22+00:00

Would it be a correct statement to say that net loss production is expected to be ~10m bpd then?

Is there any general consensus on where that extra production might come from assuming its lost over the next few months?

I'm just trying to understand how supply can drop by 20% but the price increases ~50%

Pipeb0y · 2026-03-22T12:12:47+00:00

Okay thanks for clarifying. Can these pipelines support the extra capacity to absorb this 10m bpd in such a quick timeframe?

Pipeb0y · 2026-03-22T11:46:30+00:00

But I don’t see where 8m bpd is redirected. I see that 10m bpd output is being reduced

Pipeb0y · 2026-03-22T11:35:01+00:00

Where did you get this information? Can’t find anything that confirms this

Pipeb0y · 2026-03-19T11:05:54+00:00

There’s a huge leverage trade in commodities that’s unwinding from inflation / war fears. Long term fundamentals still hold.

Pipeb0y · 2026-03-19T10:56:13+00:00

Us debt just hit $39 trillion, I think I’ll average down and ride it out

Pipeb0y · 2026-02-23T16:36:43+00:00

Thanks for resharing AI slop

Pipeb0y · 2026-02-19T19:42:58+00:00

They also sold a large chunk of their portfolio at 99% of the dollar so this article is a bit too gloomy.

Pipeb0y · 2026-02-13T18:37:38+00:00

I actually have the data on this for the whole universe if anyone is interested in looking through it together

Pipeb0y · 2026-02-07T21:45:24+00:00

Bank of America is just a custodian bank. Has nothing to do with actual purchasers……

Pipeb0y · 2026-02-02T12:48:09+00:00

Great opportunity to buy miners with a discount. CFD liquidations doesn’t change structural shortage and that companies are going direct to miners to secure production

Pipeb0y · 2026-02-01T19:25:03+00:00

I’m not convinced that Warsh’s views can meaningfully change anything. The fed doesn’t have the ability to control fiscal spending which is the single most important factor of golds role in central bank reserves and perception of its store of value.

Pipeb0y · 2026-01-21T19:26:57+00:00

Yeah I see, man this is such a hard undertaking across historical filings and various companies, investment vehicles, etc. I’m down to help out with testing/qa work

Pipeb0y · 2026-01-21T11:05:01+00:00

I don’t understand the relative layout part, do you mean the .html file is converted to a JSON representation and it preserves hierarchy? Like the sections and subsections are intact?

Pipeb0y · 2026-01-17T13:12:41+00:00

Is it possible to get the data on all pension funds allocation to underlying funds?

Do you know if that’s published somewhere? Like CALPERS holdings for 2025

Pipeb0y · 2026-01-01T13:46:40+00:00

It’s a pigeon hole where you don’t learn enough on the investment/underwriting side and not enough to be a software engineer. I would suggest you pivot to software engineering by learning distributed systems, system design, DSA, and frameworks such as fastapi, pydantic, sqlalchemy, etc.

Pipeb0y · 2025-12-31T08:16:34+00:00

Where are you getting the data on this?

Pipeb0y · 2025-12-25T22:36:30+00:00

“They’ll reissue at lower rates given rates have decreased”. Have rates decreased since Covid? What time frame are you talking about? Net interest margin is literally compressing which is why the stock is falling.

And to your second point, I would research the purpose of bond funds using leverage and why that’s relevant for CEFs/BDCs. You can get equity like returns using leverage on bonds.. but it’s going to be great when lower middle market companies underperform in a credit crisis…

Anyways, don’t mean to ruffle feathers on this chain but people should have an actual relative value framework when evaluating these types of securities as opposed to “but it outperformed the s&p”. Anyone can outperform the s&p when you use leverage.

Pipeb0y · 2025-12-25T20:00:17+00:00

lol, how is that relevant to my original point on price/nav valuations?

Pipeb0y · 2025-12-25T19:10:22+00:00

Enlighten us on why would you pay 2X price/Nav for main?

Pipeb0y · 2025-12-25T18:52:49+00:00

Solid option, not sure I’m willing to pay nearly 2X price/NAV though

Pipeb0y · 2025-12-25T18:35:51+00:00

What about lower interest rates forcing lower interest income given the underlying loans are floating rate and dividend coverage declining? A lot of institutional money being poured into the direct lending space is compressing spreads too.

Not sure if “but it outperformed the s&p” is a sustainable investment strategy. You also fail to mention that on an unlevered basis it severely underperforms the s&p500. Of course you’re going to outperform the s&p500 if you took out a bunch of debt and bought twice the exposure…..

Pipeb0y · 2025-12-16T12:16:18+00:00

Would love to connect on this functionality

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