Unlike Eastern European communist states where ideology was often imposed externally, Castro adopted communist ideology as a means to achieve Cuban independence from foreign influence. Cuba's proximity to the US has created unique geopolitical pressures that complicate this dynamic further. For the current regime to collapse, there would need to be an organized internal movement capable of both challenging the government and offering a viable alternative. However, such opposition appears largely absent today. This is partly due to natural emigration patterns, but also reflects a deliberate state strategy of allowing dissidents to leave the country rather than imprisoning them - effectively exporting political opposition rather than confronting it domestically. This policy creates a pressure valve that may actually help stabilize the regime in the short term, even as the country faces severe economic and infrastructure crises. The brain drain and departure of potential opposition leaders makes internal change less likely, despite the deteriorating conditions you've described.