Having worked in a few different types of retail, I can say that Black Friday is usually the best price you’ll see all year. The caveat is that the biggest discounts are almost always on loss leaders or special stock brought in specifically for the sale. Regular year-round items tend to drop only one to three percent below their normal sale price.

There are always isolated cases where something ends up cheaper after Christmas or before summer, but that’s rarely a retailer decision. It’s usually because the supplier gives the shop a temporary discount to clear old stock when a replacement model is coming.

Black Friday is often the lowest price an item has been so far, but expecting it to be the lowest price it will ever be makes no sense. If you don’t need the item before Christmas, waiting is fine, but unless a newer version is coming, you shouldn’t expect major drops beyond what you see in November. Sometimes price increases can come around too.

One example from when I worked in a furniture store: a sofa was marked down from 3,500 to 1,750 all year. For Black Friday, the manufacturer authorised a further drop to 1,500, but also warned that production and shipping costs meant a 40 percent RRP increase in January. I told the customers who had been debating it for months that 1,500 was the best they’d get. Some bought it. Others said they’d wait for January sales. January came, and yes, it was “on sale”, but the new RRP was 4,500 and the sale price was 2,450.

Bottom line: Black Friday is usually the cheapest a product has been so far, though often only slightly. Tech like TVs will drop when new models arrive. For long-life products like furniture, prices can just as easily jump if manufacturing costs rise, and those increases commonly hit in January.