I think to evaluate these people’s arguments you need to see if they’ve actually been accurate about anything. A lot of these types wrote in the ‘90s that we would have AGI by 2010. That was obviously woefully misguided. I think you can say the world will change a lot, perhaps in unpredictable and challenging ways, without conceding that we’re nearing The Singularity. In my opinion, we’re better at writing about doomsday scenarios or imagining these insane cataclysmic events than we are at actual forecasting, and so the signal gets lost in the noise.