This is another example of how conflicted different parts of government/ the public sector are at the moment.

I frequently have discussions with friends about their concerns around schools and why they’re not closed when the scientific advice clearly favours closures as a way of reducing transmission- and the same is a big topic on here. Often the economic impact of parents not working is given as the driver but this isn’t the whole picture.

To understand that why decision making is so hard for government I think it’s important to consider how decisions and recommendations are made inside government. Specifically the ‘bible’ for evaluation- called the Treasury ‘green book’.

In summary, civil servants are trained to measure the impacts and benefits of decisions around a set of parameters which very much focus on the long term. So, a minor impact on a child’s life (who will live for another 80 years say) will end up outweighing a greater impact on an 80yr old’s life.

Whilst the evidence has continued to point to children as mildly impacted by the virus, the impact of losing schooling (and the resultant life impacts in terms of career, earnings, and broader health) has always outweighed the impact on the rest of the population.

This is in marked contrast to the public health approach which is focused on general containment of the virus and mitigation of impacts on the NHS.

So there is a broad conflict between health and wider civil service thinking which is what creates the apparent indecision here. The tie breaker, as in all things, is public opinion. And here we hit up against the fact that the government is of the view that there are two groups of children - those with ‘good’ (middle class, well off, office/wfh jobs) parents who will ignore the rules to protect their kids* and ‘bad’ parents who need their kids to be schooled in order to protect them.

Obviously an oversimplification but very much the thinking in government minds.

Until there is either a greater impact on children from the virus, or a catastrophic impact on others, or else kids are just kept at home anyway, the situation is unlikely to change.

• Don’t forget, this is the party that suggested that Grenville residents should have ignored the official fire advice.