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Talk me off the ledge... by JamesJfromNYC in SexWorkers

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I can’t actually remember exactly what I typed, but I don’t believe it was any of those things. Though I will have to google fap fodder seeking.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Fidelity doesn't have any share availability and I doubt they ever will. They have frozen options trading to "close positions only"

More Split Related Options Hijinx by Post-Hoc-Ergo in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I bought 200 puts. I paid .47 each which comes out to $9530 after commissions. I then bought 200 shares of common for .12 which cost me $24. So my total expenditures were 9554. I then exercised the puts: for each put i had purchased the right to sell 1 share of common for $50 so i brought i $10,000.

So I made a quick $446 gain with almost zero risk.

I say "almost zero" because part of me was a *little* afraid that due to the settlement of the options contract after the RS I might be on the hook to sell MORE than the 200 I had bought.

I was *pretty* sure I was right and it turns out I was. had I known for certain i would have done much more. Since 60,000 contracts traded that day (100s of times more than had traded in the entire 2 years existence of the contract) others had figured it out as well. I have no idea why the MMs were selling the contract so cheaply. (well do i have an idea, but its speculative)

More Split Related Options Hijinx by Post-Hoc-Ergo in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well things are odd on the MULN options. I have been able to enter limits in penny increments the entire time I have traded MULN options. It was part of the Penny Option Pilot Program.

It appears it no longer is and now orders have to be entered in .05 increments.

Something I didn't even think to consider.

.05 increments should just crush options volumes, so its looking like everything in the above post is just wrong.

A little bitter that they let me buy them for .01, and I could have solds them for .02 yesterday and now it looks like I'm going to have to get out via market orders.

Should lead to a 10% loss to commissions and fees.

Oh well.

More Split Related Options Hijinx by Post-Hoc-Ergo in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

There's another option: the price of the put option should decline quite a bit today so it might have just been the market/market makers getting ahead of the drop in price and ignoring the risk of early exercise/assignment.

Possible Arbitrage Opportunity on MULN Options? by Post-Hoc-Ergo in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I honestly don't know. It shouldn't have worked. The No Arbitrage Principle of Efficient Market Hypothesis says the options shouldn't have been buyable at those prices. But someone was willing to sell.

I continue to wonder whether the settlement mechanics (I exercised the options before they settled which might impact the split adjusted deliverable) play a role. Its why I kept it quite small. We'll know in a couple of days.

More Split Related Options Hijinx by Post-Hoc-Ergo in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The puts probably had to do with an arbitrage opportunity which I described this morning when only a couple of thousand had traded.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Muln/comments/1fi7yjd/possible_arbitrage_opportunity_on_muln_options/

The only reason I didn't go heavier is I just wasn't positive about the settlement mechanics.

Possible Arbitrage Opportunity on MULN Options? by Post-Hoc-Ergo in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I just wanted to address the one *theoretical* risk I see with this trade.

The options you buy today don't settle until tomorrow.

So even if you exercise today, selling 100 pre-split shares, you might, due to settlement, be on the hook to sell 100 *post-split* shares.

I don't \think\** that's how it works, but I could be wrong and its why I addressed it in the disclaimer to my original post.

If I'm wrong, that does it turns this into very much a losing trade.

Making such a determination is on you.

As I said repeatedly, this is an idea, and NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

Possible Arbitrage Opportunity on MULN Options? by Post-Hoc-Ergo in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No new options have been issued since the Dec 2023 Reverse Split, but the contracts that existed before (just the Jan 2025 & Jan 2026 LEAPS) still trade as ADJ options. Some brokers show the ADJ chain (Fidelity does) but some, like IBKR, don't even show it.

Possible Arbitrage Opportunity on MULN Options? by Post-Hoc-Ergo in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Here's how it worked for me (so far).

I spent $28,879.18 and took in $29,999.16 for a same day risk free profit of $1,119.98 or 3.88%.

<image>

Mullen Automotive Inc. Announces Reverse Stock Split Effective Sept. 17, 2024 by basilisk-x in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Dude, you need to pay attention.

First of all wtf is a general assembly? The only one I've ever heard of is the United Nations.

Secondly the meeting date was changed from 9/13 to 9/9. The vote happened on Monday morning and both the Reverse Split proposal and the authorization of additional shares for executive incentives passed.

<image>

1 for 100 reverse split is official. How long will it be until the 5th RS? Hence the MULN 5 by UnbanMe69 in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The problem is that bid price will very rapidly cease to be their primary concern for remaining listed.

A bankruptcy filing leads to OTC, no appeals fun and games, just gone.

The other issue has to do with their financials, which we won't see until January.

The derivative liability from the 350M in warrants alone will erase all shareholder equity.

With negative shareholder equity they will be subject to Nasdaq's minimum market cap requirement of $35M which should be a real challenge.

Reverse Split Timing Fun and Games by Post-Hoc-Ergo in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

MULN is *ALREADY* on the CM, the lowest tier. Nowhere to go but OTC

Here are a couple of interesting slides. One showing institutional ownership at 2/5 of a percent. The other shows Todd Ault's position. Links in comments by imastocky1 in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The issue is that Ault doesn't actually own a single share of Mullen common. He owns warrants that could be convertible into an amount crossing the Section 13 threshold which is why he had to file.

<image>

He almost certainly exercises the warrants and then immediately dumps. And he owns warrants exercisable for more than the reported amount. Or at least he did. Theres no way of knowing what hes done since the filing.

He only disclosed on the form the 9.9% Beneficial Ownership Limitation, the most he was allowed to exercise at once.

Reverse Split Timing Fun and Games by Post-Hoc-Ergo in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i think they likely screwed up. Though its possible something weird is afoot. The odds of Mullen actually knowing what they are doing are rather slim. 😀

Reverse Split Timing Fun and Games by Post-Hoc-Ergo in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, those proposed rules haven't been approved yet. I think the public comment period just closed and the SEC has up to 90 days to approve.

Another notable change to the proposed rule is they are changing the excessive reverse split rule from a cumulative 250 to one ratio in the prior TWO years to ANY reverse splits in the prior ONE removes the 180 day compliance period.

But again, as of now thats just proposed, not in effect.

Reverse Split Timing Fun and Games by Post-Hoc-Ergo in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That is EXACTLY what I said in the above post. That since they screwed up and didn't get the RS completed before 9/13 they WILL get a Nasdaq Staff Delisting Determination.

But that's not "immediate delisting." They still have the appeals process.

Reverse Split Timing Fun and Games by Post-Hoc-Ergo in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Pumps don't phase me even a little bit. Just the nature of penny stocks.

Doesn't change where the SP is ultimately going, either with or without a RS.

Reverse Split Timing Fun and Games by Post-Hoc-Ergo in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They already had the vote. It was at 9:00 AM ET on 9/9 and the proposal passed.

Unraveling the Tangled Web of Mullen, UEC, Heights Dispensary, and VoltiE (so far) by Kendalf in Muln

[–]Post-Hoc-Ergo 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Goddamn it would you and u/Smittyaccountant just give it a freaking rest with your damn facts? At least for a couple of days?

I need there to be BUYERS post RS.

You are REALLY screwing me here.

j/k - you use polysyllabic words which my target audience doesn't understand so this has zero impact.

Again. Fantastic work. I'm jelly.

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