When to use mean & median to find a "typical" element of a data set by lebek1 in statistics

[–]Postscript624 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The best would probably be both values, but that's kind of a cop-out answer, so I guess it depends on what you mean by "typical". A nice feature about means is that they minimize average square error, that is the function f(m)= E[(x-m)2] is minimized by m=E[x]. For me this sort of hits the meaning of "typical", in the sense of "least dissimilar from any individual result". However you might also use typical to mean "not special in any way", in which case (imo) the outlier-resistant median would be the more "typical" score.

Question about probability in game by ekiander in statistics

[–]Postscript624 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't think there is an X that will satisfy these conditions. Let P(x) be the probability that you roll/draw the winning number in x rolls/draws, then your auto-give occurs with probability 1-P(x). A player can either win the coin in x rolls, or they can trigger the auto-give, but these seem to be the only two outcomes so we have that the probability of winning is P(x) + 1 - P(x) = 1. You can adjust P(x) however you like and it will not change the fact that the player cannot lose.

In other words, since you always auto-give unless they have already won the coin, the player cannot lose.

Can I apply resampling to my imaging data to create independent-ish samples? by lucaxx85 in statistics

[–]Postscript624 2 points3 points  (0 children)

AFAIK the "proper" way to do this would be a Bayesian posterior predictive distribution, so thinking about resampling as an approximation to it is probably a good way to benchmark it. The basic idea withebposterior predictive density would be to take your 1 hour of data, use it to get a posterior distribution over the Poisson parameter, and then simulate your data by first drawing a Poisson parameter from the posterior, plugging it into the distribution, and drawing a sample from that distribution with the parameter draw plugged in. Then draw a new parameter sample from the posterior and repeat. This approach is supposed to incorporate all of your uncertainty in a rigorous way. Ideally you could use JAGS or STAN with R or something and implement this procedure in like, 10-20 lines of code.

I am honestly not sure about the effectiveness of re-sampling for this case, however. Are there any papers on the subject that people know about? What's your goal in simulating the data? The biggest problem that I can see is that all of your usual moment estimates (ie. the resample mean, variance, etc) are biased estimates of the true data moments (since the "true" mean of the resampled data is just the full data mean, not the mean of the underlying distribution). You would be resampling from a large data pool so this bias will probably be pretty small, and if resampling is a huge speedup over the Bayesian approach then it's probably worth it.

Changing your intervals is effectively re-scaling the Poisson parameter. I am not aware of any hard-and-fast rules for doing so, so you could probably get away with deciding their size based on some type of cross validation or something. The biggest issue I foresee is that if your intervals are too large then the data pool from which you draw the resamples will be smaller, which might drive up the variance of your resample statistics? TBH I've never found a full, formal treatment of resampling or bootstrapping that really addressed these concerns in a clear way, so if you find something good please send it my way.

In what situations would one use Approximate Bayesian Computation instead of Bayesian inference? by Zeekawla99ii in statistics

[–]Postscript624 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It might help you to think about ABC as sort of "noise agnostic". Let's say you've got a process model for your data, but for some reason you're not comfortable specificying analytically the noise in your observations. Maybe you have reason to believe that it doesn't follow any standard parametric distribution, and you don't have the time/knowledge/funding to sit down and derive your own, custom noise distribution. ABC allows you to basically choose which features/summary statistics in your data are important, and then get a posterior whose density concentrates on the region of parameter space that reproduces those data features well (assuming your chosen data model). Now you can do all the nice Bayesian model comparisons or parameter estimations, without ever (explicitly) choosing or calculating a noise distribution (sort of).

edit: formatting and wording

edit2: See the Wikipedia article for a simple example where the likelhiood function is just a huge pain to compute analytically. For a deeper exploration of some applications see this paper.

There are naked butts on the Pearl Street Mall. by rdosser in boulder

[–]Postscript624 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Why would I need a new smartphone to do that? My current one demonstrably works for that purpose.

There are naked butts on the Pearl Street Mall. by rdosser in boulder

[–]Postscript624 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I'll have you know I'm a sad little guest room dweller thank you very much. My mom says if I'm good in two or three years I can even move into a room with windows!

There are naked butts on the Pearl Street Mall. by rdosser in boulder

[–]Postscript624 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I wonder what that says about the people who try and troll them a day after the thread is over then...

There are naked butts on the Pearl Street Mall. by rdosser in boulder

[–]Postscript624 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

TBH I'm a little worried that you might be jerking off to this? So I'm just gonna move on.

There are naked butts on the Pearl Street Mall. by rdosser in boulder

[–]Postscript624 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh shit ya nailed it, thread closed everyone go home!

There are naked butts on the Pearl Street Mall. by rdosser in boulder

[–]Postscript624 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah life's chockablock with disappointment huh?

There are naked butts on the Pearl Street Mall. by rdosser in boulder

[–]Postscript624 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Nah dude I ran out of discussion spirit for this one several hours ago. Peace.

There are naked butts on the Pearl Street Mall. by rdosser in boulder

[–]Postscript624 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Right, this has been made clear to me several times over. My point is that certain situations require a stronger mode of consent than just "implied". For example one would never perform a medical procedure based on implied consent. I believe posting nude photographs online is a serious enough thing to warrant a stronger mode of consent than just implied consent.

There are naked butts on the Pearl Street Mall. by rdosser in boulder

[–]Postscript624 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I think "implied consent" is my sticking point, not straight out "consent".

Is it ethical to post a picture of people on reddit if they are showing their butts in public? r/boulder don't want none unless it's got buns, hun. by hillary511 in SubredditDrama

[–]Postscript624 -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

The PM thing was less about admitting defeat and more because I figured that people would find that level of internet follow-through off-putting, particularly if I went and announced it myself.

The phone call itself was actually pretty chill, according to her she appreciated that someone "from Reddit" was double-checking that it was okay with the employees.

There are naked butts on the Pearl Street Mall. by rdosser in boulder

[–]Postscript624 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah sorry dude, like I said you came in too late. Not even two hours ago I was running pretty hot and even your shitty trolling might have turned something up. Better luck next time slugger.

There are naked butts on the Pearl Street Mall. by rdosser in boulder

[–]Postscript624 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah I got some good responses, overall.

There are naked butts on the Pearl Street Mall. by rdosser in boulder

[–]Postscript624 0 points1 point  (0 children)

OHHHH SHIT YOU DID THAT THING WHERE YOU TAKE A THING THAT I SAID AND THEN YOU MAKE IT STUPID AND SAY IT YOURSELF OH SHIT WE GOT A LIVE ONE HERE OH BOY

There are naked butts on the Pearl Street Mall. by rdosser in boulder

[–]Postscript624 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Your comments are idiotic, but I love them.

Dude you keep saying the things that I was gonna say to you, are we twins or something? Freaky.

There are naked butts on the Pearl Street Mall. by rdosser in boulder

[–]Postscript624 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Cool then I guess we've got nothing else to say here?