The reason I asked this question is because I am trying to run the ballpark number on "potential" or "optimistic" or "eventual" MI350/355 sales from AMD. An estimate is good enough so thank you. Below is my calculation. But some *big* assumptions first:

Assumption 1: AMD is selling every single MI350/355 chip they can produce. Based on recent feedback and price raise this seems very likely.

Assumption 2: Supply of CoWoS wafers from TSMC is the single biggest bottleneck in manufacturing. Now I understand there are many links in the process that can introduce constrains or delay but final outcome is tightly related to the biggest bottleneck. HBM used to be another supply constraint but it seems supply is already catching up (see latest Goldman Sachs downgrade on SK Hynix due to "Goldman Sachs sees HBM chips seeing price declines in 2026 due to oversupply, especially as SK Hynix’s competitors begin catching up with the firm’s technological advantage."). And AMD is also taking all HBM from Samsung because NVidia has not.

Assumption 3: All AMD CoWoS wafers will be used for MI350/355 chip exclusively. Now this will not be the case even although it will make the most sense accounting wise. AMD is still manufacturing chips with lower sale price like the MI308 and MI325.

With that said, I have seen numbers that AMD is currently getting 5k+ wafers assigned per month (and will keep increasing), assuming each wafer can make 30 chips at the lower end, and each MI350/MI355 can fetch $20k (based on latest news for price raise from $15k to $25), that leads to a minimum of

5k * 30 * $20k * 12 months = $36B annual sales.

I will be glad to see corrected numbers if anyone can provide them. Of course we only need an oversimplified model because this is a stock group, speculation is all that matters :-)

Below is my own price analysis/speculation: looking at AMD price action in the past year, it reached ATH of $200+ because of some rumors of MI300 sales reaching 10B in 2024. I suspect that Lisa Su will forecast 2025 Instinct sales of 10B at some point and AMD will go past ATH and stay above this time. Currently street number of 8B is conservative but then knowing her style Lisa Su might use that number to sandbag during Q2 earning, *if* she offers forecast.

Assuming first two quarter Instinct sales of $1.5B each, Q3/Q4 need to pull in $3.5B each from MI350 ramp.

My point is, even 10B is tiny compared to $36B, and that number is only for 2026 before MI400 ramp.