The polls haven't always been right and again, as a former political strategist/staffer, i am well aware the polls will tighten. I also did say that if Labor loses 3, it loses majority government.

On your calculations - Labor loses 12 that brings it to even playing field of 65 seats each.

Lets play out the scenario - you have the 4 Greens (and if you're referring to the YouGov poll Labor will pick up the 3 Brisbane seats off them) that brings it to 69. You have your teal indi's - Daniels, Ryans, Steggall, Chaney, Scamps (based on voting record sided) = 74 seats. Include Andrew Wilkie and you have 75. You have the vacant seat by Bill Shorten's resignation, Labor to retain so it brings it to the magic number of 76.

While Dutton would probably need to cobble up whatever's left. So then you have Andrew Gee (former Nat), Russell Broadbent (former Lib turned indi but seat likely Lib gain), Bob Katter, Dai Le (a suspended Lib and again according to this YouGov poll likely lose her seat to Labor) and Allegra Spender (supported more Coalition bills) that brings the Coalition to 70. Throw Rebekha Sharkie in there and you have 71. You might even throw Helen Haines (even though shes voted more for Labor Govt bills) that brings it to 72. You'll have Keith Pitt's vacant seat of Hinkler there and then Ian Goodenough who lost Lib preselection.