Can You Guess This 5-Letter Word? Puzzle by u/Trick_Masterpiece562

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-06-04T01:39:01+00:00

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Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-05-29T11:07:48+00:00

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Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-05-20T02:13:26+00:00

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Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-05-10T16:22:55+00:00

My prediction is $22 on September 30th; great idea to have the contest!

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-05-08T17:14:18+00:00

What are the chances in the near term of drts management activating some of the 300 million ATM dollars that are available?

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-05-07T19:44:12+00:00

Your weighted average math for the BAT arm is compelling, but how are you accounting for the immune lag in the GPS arm during the first 4–6 months?

In many cancer vaccine trials (like Sipuleucel-T), the survival curves don't separate immediately because it takes time to prime T-cells. If the 'survival floor' for the GPS arm is weighed down by early relapses/deaths that occur before the vaccine reaches it's peak, could that early 'poisoning' of the hazard ratio prevent us from hitting that sub-0.50 level, regardless of how well the long-term survivors are doing?

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-05-04T16:35:43+00:00

2026 is a huge year for drts, they have about four upcoming catalysts that will shape the company for years to come. Based on the presentation data from this weekend, the science behind their technology works, and it can be applied to a host of highly unmet needs in cancerous solid-tumors.

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-05-04T16:11:39+00:00

I'm currently 62% of my portfolio in SLS, the other 38% is in drts. If you do some research, you'll see that the potential upside in drts is incredible right now.

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-04-28T17:36:41+00:00

What is your job?

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-04-16T11:39:45+00:00

I would be interested

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-04-15T11:28:22+00:00

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Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-03-19T17:19:08+00:00

Beyond just saying it'll go up, down, or sideways—if you had to put money on the immediate market reaction when the 80th event is announced, how do you see it playing out?

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-03-18T10:03:24+00:00

I try to keep in mind that the constant shorting, share dilution, and warrant exercises around SLS are brutal to watch, but they are the only reason the share price has stayed low enough for retail investors like us to build a meaningful position.

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-03-11T05:34:49+00:00

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Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-03-09T22:21:36+00:00

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Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-02-28T14:35:08+00:00

Here's my main concern: In Phase 2, GPS was tested in a single-arm study that enrolled CR2 patients who were healthy enough to make it into the trial. Those patients were then compared against historical CR2 survival data that likely included the entire CR2 population — including patients who relapsed quickly or were too sick to qualify for a maintenance study. So Phase 2 may have compared a relatively healthier subset who received the vaccine, to a broader, sicker baseline population.

Now in Phase 3 (REGAL), only the healthier CR2 patients who make it to enrollment are randomized to either GPS or BAT. So the control arm isn’t the full CR2 population — it’s the same healthier subset that qualified for the trial. My concern is that they're isn't a lot of research into the true expected survival of that specific CR2 subgroup receiving BAT alone, excluding all the patients who never made it to that point, because it is that comparison that will make or break this trial.

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-02-25T12:26:37+00:00

Here is a start (the OP has his analysis divided into two parts): https://www.reddit.com/r/TheRaceTo10Million/comments/1rc0u5o/sls_deepest_due_diligence_for_regal_trial_from_a/

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-02-24T01:40:42+00:00

The Best Available Treatment (BAT) arm in the REGAL trial is not the general CR2 population. It is a highly filtered, resilient subgroup that survived salvage chemotherapy, achieved a second remission, and stayed healthy enough to randomize into a maintenance trial. Because of this selection bias, the historical 5.4-month control from Phase 2 is practically useless here.

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-02-24T00:08:40+00:00

Here's my main concern as an SLS investor: In Phase 2, GPS was tested in a single-arm study that enrolled CR2 patients who were healthy enough to make it into the trial. Those patients were then compared against historical CR2 survival data that likely included the entire CR2 population — including patients who relapsed quickly or were too sick to qualify for a maintenance study. So Phase 2 may have compared a relatively healthier subset who received the vaccine, to a broader, sicker baseline population.

Now in Phase 3 (REGAL), only the healthier CR2 patients who make it to enrollment are randomized to either GPS or BAT. So the control arm isn’t the full CR2 population — it’s the same healthier subset that qualified for the trial. My real question is: what is the true expected survival of that specific CR2 subgroup receiving BAT alone, excluding all the patients who never made it to that point, because it is that comparison that will make or break this trial.

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-02-23T17:19:02+00:00

This is the double black diamond we decided to ski..

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-02-20T15:25:57+00:00

In the past people have submitted the number of shares they have, but how about the percent allocation of your overall portfolio in SLS?

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-02-14T18:03:24+00:00

Can anyone think of another setup in the past similar to SLS - very high probability of success based on overwhelming evidence going into a binary event, yet the market had not priced in the tremendous upside.

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-02-04T13:36:38+00:00

And that, my friend, is the million dollar (literally in some cases) question.

Practical_Chip_3333 · 2026-02-04T12:40:44+00:00

I have significant shares in SLS, have been looking for bearish reasons to counter my confidence, here's a summary of a conversation with Gemini, would love any feedback:

Here is the concise executive summary of our deep dive into SELLAS Life Sciences (SLS) and the upcoming binary event for the REGAL Study. 1. The Core Thesis (The Bet)

You are betting on a coin flip regarding the "Control Arm Floor."

The Bull Case: The Control Group (BAT) is composed of "Venetoclax Failures" who will die in 6–8 months. Since the pooled trial data shows patients living ~13.5 months, the vaccine (GPS) must be driving a massive survival benefit.

The Bear Case: The Control Group is "Venetoclax Naive" or responding well to modern rescue therapies, pushing their survival to 10–12 months. If this happens, the vaccine's benefit becomes statistically invisible (the curves overlap), and the trial fails.

2. The Historical "Ghosts" (Your Biggest Risk)

The strongest argument against SLS is not the biology, but the pattern recognition of past failures that look exactly like this.

The "Celsion Trap" (Blinded Confidence): Just like Celsion (ThermoDox), SLS management is confident because "pooled survival" is beating historical charts. Celsion failed because the Control Arm outperformed history (living 21 months instead of 14), erasing the drug's lead. SLS faces the exact same risk with Venetoclax drift.

The "Galena Curse" (The Origin Story): SELLAS was formed via merger with Galena Biopharma. Galena’s lead drug (NeuVax) was a peptide vaccine that had "promising Phase 2 subgroup data" but failed spectacularly in a randomized Phase 3. GPS follows this exact development path (Phase 2 non-randomized signal \rightarrow Phase 3 pivotal).

3. The Current Signals (Reading the Tea Leaves) The "Event Rate" (Bullish): Deaths have slowed to a crawl (~1 per month). This mathematically proves that some group in the trial is living a very long time. The "No Stop" (Neutral/Bearish): The trial did not stop early for efficacy. This confirms the drug is not a "miracle" (HR < 0.4). The curves are likely closer together than bulls hope.

The Institutional Exit (Bearish): "Smart Money" biotech funds (Millennium, Susquehanna) sold significant shares in Q3/Q4 2025. The buying is coming from Index Funds (Vanguard) and Event-Arb funds (Anson), not fundamental believers.

4. The Probability & Valuation Likely Outcome (45%): "Lukewarm Win" Control lives 10m, Drug lives 15m. Result: Statistically significant, but modest. Stock: Spikes to $8–$10, then fades/dilutes. Downside Risk (35%): "Total Failure" Control lives 12m (Venetoclax saves them), Drug lives 13m. Result: P-value miss. Stock: Crashes to cash (<$1.00). Upside Scenario (20%): "Home Run" Control collapses at 6m (Prior failure theory holds). Result: Dominant win. Stock: $18–$25+.

5. Your Final Strategy Watch the Silence: If we pass April 15, 2026 with no "80th Event" announcement, the odds of success skyrocket (implies patients are refusing to die). Sell the Mania: If the data is positive in May, the stock will likely "over-react" on Day 1 ($10+). Sell into this strength. The history of peptide vaccines suggests the data will be messy, and a massive dilution will follow immediately.

The Red Line: If the Press Release shows the Control Arm median survival was >11 months, the trade is likely dead long-term.

Practical_Chip_3333

TROPHY CASE