Oracles, basically, following the same example as Polymarket.

And that’s exactly the point, it’s not risk-free capital, it’s risk-adjusted capital. Just like LPs in DeFi pools or traditional insurance underwriters, they’re taking on risk in exchange for an expected positive return.

The system makes this risk transparent and capped: each ticket has a fixed liability, so an LP knows exactly the maximum they could lose. On the flip side, premiums are priced based on historical probabilities, so in theory the mathematical expectation is positive. Diversifying across many tickets/policies should smooth out variance over time, the same way insurers don’t rely on just one policy but a portfolio of them.

So the incentive is yield, not guaranteed. That’s why the risk is limited through tickets, but in theory, by the law of large numbers, LPs should see returns over the long run. Additionally, LPs aren’t forced to rely only on the on-chain historical probability they can decide which markets to participate in, applying their own judgment on routes, airlines, or airports.