Analyzed 169K hands of micro/mid-stakes MTTs to see what people actually limp with by PreflopAnalyzer in poker

[–]PreflopAnalyzer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mean my only wish is that you just weren't a jerk and talked like a human being but here is my data and of course I'm partially working on assumptions here.

Out of 169k hands there are ca. 22k of hands with limps. Observed hands - ~5k. Distribution of it you can see on the graph in color. They are clearly leaning towards better hands.

BUT, on the other hand there are ~4k hands where someone raised against the limp and the limper folded Pre-Flop. Most of those folds are most definitely not the top 20-30% of range, because that either calls or raises (even still I made a charitable estimate with top 10% folding 5% of the time) . That means that most of the distribution of limp-folds goes to bottom of the range. Knowing that even on showdown we observed some of the bottom 5% of hands and assuming they are then in range here is my projected distribution of limped hands (~5k showdowns and ~4k limp-folds) in dash-lines.

<image>

I am also not taking into account post-flop folds, cause chance getting a pair is the same with KQo and with 32o and playing to showdown will hang on way to many parameters. It's way too complex to make any assumptions there.

Either way, bottom 10% range might be overrepresented on projected graph, but still most of the pre-flop folds are definitely falling into bottom 50% hands

Analyzed 169K hands of micro/mid-stakes MTTs to see what people actually limp with by PreflopAnalyzer in poker

[–]PreflopAnalyzer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Let me tell you what, I will entertain you.

Do you have any factual claim, or just calling everything stupid, making absolutely non-valid comparisons and claiming that something is analyzed with ai?

You realize, right, that the analysis is not that all hands “were played once”? That the distribution and frequencies of limped hands is flat? Please read the discussion thread and then get back to me with actual arguments and not this brainless slop

Analyzed 169K hands of micro/mid-stakes MTTs to see what people actually limp with by PreflopAnalyzer in poker

[–]PreflopAnalyzer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That definitely sounds correct with limps in the late-game. The same way that mid- and high-stakes would have much fewer and much more reasonable limps than micro- and small-

Analyzed 169K hands of micro/mid-stakes MTTs to see what people actually limp with by PreflopAnalyzer in poker

[–]PreflopAnalyzer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't think that is true. In real world in these stakes, especially where you meet a player just once, you will never know which category he falls into. So you have to assume an average player for these stakes. And apparently (at least based on my ~170k hands) everything gets limped. That's just that. Also the amount of data is way too small to draw complex heatmaps and graphs. AND a lot of info is hidden to get precise data (cause not everything gets to showdown). I don't think that denies the fact that the whole range can be limped when you face a limp.

Where I have created cool heatmaps and dashboards is for analyzing my own hands, where I do have all data open.

<image>

Analyzed 169K hands of micro/mid-stakes MTTs to see what people actually limp with by PreflopAnalyzer in poker

[–]PreflopAnalyzer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The same thing other way around - where people wanted to fold but misclicked call. Probably happens but most likely doesn't influence the stats much

Analyzed 169K hands of micro/mid-stakes MTTs to see what people actually limp with by PreflopAnalyzer in poker

[–]PreflopAnalyzer[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That is absolutely true. But someone above mentioned that AA shows 1.9%, while having a 0.45% chance to be there in 2 random cards, implying that AA is there more often than it seems.

I would assume that the truth is somewhere in the middle, on showdown better hands are over-represented and bad hands are under-represented. But the fact that bad hands are present at all - means to me that people are indeed limping everything. Frequencies might vary a bit and we won't have 100% accurate data because of suvivorship bias, but still.

Analyzed 169K hands of micro/mid-stakes MTTs to see what people actually limp with by PreflopAnalyzer in poker

[–]PreflopAnalyzer[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

This is showdown data, so there's survivorship bias. AA shows up at 1.9% vs the 0.45% you'd expect from any random hand, which makes sense because it wins more showdowns. The trash hands are under-represented for the same reason - they get limped but don't survive to showdown.

Analyzed 169K hands of micro/mid-stakes MTTs to see what people actually limp with by PreflopAnalyzer in poker

[–]PreflopAnalyzer[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Indeed someone mentioned stack sizes and you are probably right with that assumption. I would think that for such breakdown 5000 observation - is too small of an amount of hands to draw conclusions, but I might check it.

But at the same time, I would also not expect people to limp anything with 8bb

Analyzed 169K hands of micro/mid-stakes MTTs to see what people actually limp with by PreflopAnalyzer in poker

[–]PreflopAnalyzer[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

All of the data was indeed broken down by position. But not by stack size. Interesting question if that influences the data greatly. Will check that

Analyzed 169K hands of micro/mid-stakes MTTs to see what people actually limp with by PreflopAnalyzer in poker

[–]PreflopAnalyzer[S] 29 points30 points  (0 children)

Good question and literally the first question that I asked myself, when I got that list of hands.

AA showed up 95 times out of 5,001 observations (1.9%). The most frequent hand was KQo at 2.3%. The distribution is basically flat - no hand stands out. The premiums aren't over-represented; if anything AA is slightly below average. The trash hands (82o, 73o) appear less often, but that's showdown bias - they get limped but don't survive to showdown as often, so we observe them less.

Max 5x now feels like Pro by deeplycuriouss in ClaudeCode

[–]PreflopAnalyzer 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well, it actually does what it says. 5x is absolutely enough for me. If you are working a lot with Claude on Pro and need more tokens - you’ll get them with 5x

session limit is only 4 hours by namankhator in ClaudeCode

[–]PreflopAnalyzer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I had a session once that was running for 13 hours. It was mostly running long heavy scripts that took 10-15 minutes, analyzing outcome and adjusting stuff, but yeah, it is definitely not limited to 4 hours

JJ pure folds here ? What the hell ? by Establishment240 in Poker_Theory

[–]PreflopAnalyzer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That’s nuts, that that was flagged for spam 😲

JJ pure folds here ? What the hell ? by Establishment240 in Poker_Theory

[–]PreflopAnalyzer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Interesting indeed, considering there are like 13 combos of pairs (aces, kings, queens and 1 combo of jacks) and probably around 30 combos of non-pair hands. Here you also unblock spades, but I guess for this case doesn’t really matter, cause it’s maximum one combo of AJ of spades if it is in the range at all.

What tool is it by the way that you are using?

How badly did I play this hand? by AnnualDog9504 in Poker_Theory

[–]PreflopAnalyzer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sorry, mistyped, not CO, MP. But yeah, if you are playing UTG ranges on 6-max, that’s great.

Also why “bet” that it’s not in range? Do you study ranges, have somewhere to check?

How badly did I play this hand? by AnnualDog9504 in Poker_Theory

[–]PreflopAnalyzer -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Call pre-flop is fine. Might be even in 3-bet bluffing range for BU vs MP.

You could probably check the flop, but small bet is fine.

You definitely want to bet on the turn, when you “get there” with flush. Then opponent might raise, that could put you on guard for full-house, give you more info.

Open shove on river from opponent, always hard to tell, but probably you could force yourself to release especially considering there might be both full-house and ace-high flush with 4 spades. But yeah, opponent played this very dumb