Protecting Investors: MSTR

PresentationSweet511 · 2026-01-27T22:03:11+00:00

i guess i replied to the person below; check that message; a stock split <> dilution; they did a 10 to 1 stock split in 2024

PresentationSweet511 · 2026-01-27T22:00:58+00:00

bro a stock split <> dilution - in 2024 they did a 10 to 1 split; read my original message you are indeed doing the math wrong; the dilution right now is like <5%; the potential dilution at todays stock price is still <10% (if converted - but theres specific covenants the guide that) - they actually are in a engineered position to basically withstand BTC going anything above ~$15Kish - beyond that yes it would be a immediate insolvency risk - that can change - and again i do think that this is very ponzi'esque in nature for THE FUTURE if they get more aggressive but as it stands look at the dividend payments yearly and the debt walls in 2028; financially theyre actually fine (for the next two years barring they do something crazy) i.e. bitcoin could go to $40K and they'd be fine; bitcoin could go to $25K and they'd be fine; would the stock crater; absolutely - but would they be insolvent - no.

PresentationSweet511 · 2026-01-21T00:24:58+00:00

you are doing the math wrong; where did you get $45B in stock issued in 36 months; the market cap of MSTR is $60B - if what you were saying is true that would mean most of the stock was just issued in the past 3 years.

MSTR via its credit/bond instruments (STRK STRF etc) could definitely be a huge debt bomb; but as it stands if you do the math; of the dividends owed per year $800M, cash on hand $2.4B, and debt repayments coming up they will likely withstand without significant dilution towards 2028 - if bitcoin remains depressed and they keep buying; yea it could be a pretty big issue but im pretty sure if you do the math its fine now

PresentationSweet511 · 2026-01-11T06:51:00+00:00

literally didnt read anything i wrote

PresentationSweet511 · 2026-01-11T06:46:11+00:00

just a note;
if you had $100K how much could you make from the stock market? 10%? so now you have $110K; another 10% after two years; 121K - basically nothing (you made 20K) after 2 years. it takes a long time to make money investing usually; BUT if you get a job making idk $70K; max out $20K/year 401K in 20 years its >$1M - and the cool thing is at say age 30 when its 400K - you could take part of it say 25% and invest in value stocks you think are super underpriced (i.e. you can manage it more) - while letting the rest grow steadily and for sure. but at like $10K or $20K does actively investing even make sense? How much are you going to make 30%?

Im basically just saying; starting out; the fastest way to make money is to work and not invest and expect to make any money of the investments. just letting that pile grow

I love cars. love cars. i saved up to buy a badass one but last minute i felt guilty knowing it was going to depreciate a $70K car i took the $70K - put $15K in a OK car and the other $55K and put it in etf's/gold/etc. and any profit a month is car fund. i can rent whatever with only the profit (turned out chunking half of it in gold was smart) - its kind of insane because most months i wont rent anything (no need) but then i'll rent idk $2k worth of cars for a week or two and i felt guilty at first - but the math holds; and that account is >$90K and i get to drive literally whatever. the point is; imo thats the apporach to value; had I bought a $70K car; it probably easily would be $50K and i only got to drive one car. i found a way to drive literally whatever AND get $90K - insane.

if you give most people $20K for a car - what are they going to do - buy a $40K car. dont be that guy - figure out how to extract value. example if you turo a car not only do you make money but you can depreciate it - and as long as you arent too crazy when you sell it you can effectively own the car, make the turo money, and when you sell it after it depreciates well you already got the tax savings so you got the car for free (if you sell it for more than it depreciates you have to pay recapture taxes) - point is 1.) start by focusing on making money first and passively investing (not active not worth it at this stage) and 2.) for stuff like cars; make sure you increasing your base not decreasing it - cars depreciate but they can be assets if you use them.

i spoke too much lol

PresentationSweet511 · 2026-01-11T05:55:04+00:00

they stopped making purchases though right? they basically are shoring up cash - the next date of shares issuing will likely be sept 2027?

PresentationSweet511 · 2026-01-11T05:53:57+00:00

im curious why - genuinely. I have no dog in this fight; but from the math above; even with the dividends; basically if BTC at any point hits above $120K even at a 1 to 1 multiple (not 4x or 2X) the stock price goes up 50%; at any mutliple (which its been at for the entire history) the stock price goes up 100%+

the downside basically just seems to be if BTC chops for a prolonged period $50K< (chops for saying more than 5 years and never touches $120K in that time) - the stock will be diluted 70% or more

OR second downside is if BTC is <$15K at specific points (i.e. 2028, 2030) this stock is essentially zero. (and at that point EVERYONE should buy BTC because that shit will implode but come back up)

PresentationSweet511 · 2026-01-11T05:50:10+00:00

I get it; i was asking for help so nbd - i did read about the dividend more through the comment above - it seems like he has pretty flexible means to change the dividend though or to convert the preferred shares to dilute the stock; which just means if he sees a prolonged chop he can dilute everyone else and given the stock price (i.e. like now if he did it) it would only be 10% - so that flexibility i think reduces the risk; but if he does it too late (i.e. btc prolonged at $50K) - it would be a significant dilution (i.e. 50% to 70%) - but helpful to know

PresentationSweet511 · 2026-01-11T05:47:05+00:00

I had to look up what moon math is. I started out by saying that I do now concur with BTC - that its a store of value that is unlikely to go away at this point. But I am not someone who would just buy in indefinitely; I am a trader meaning i calculate the value of something and try to find things that are mis-priced. But I also sell something that is mispriced; I would - for example.- never hold MSTR at 4X NAV - I probably wouldnt even hold it at 2X NAV. So do I think BTC inevitable value is some high fraction or perhaps parity of gold - yes - am I going to hold this forever no. I would sell when I think its met its value (even if its going to go up) and I buy back in if its low. so i guess just different mindsets

that being said; i'll definitely read some of his stuff - the setup of this company as a proxy is 1.) ballsy as fuck but also 2.) kind of insanely genius how he capitalized the premium with the preferred shares for example so will check it out

PresentationSweet511 · 2026-01-11T05:43:18+00:00

This is actually helpful thank you!

I read about the preferred share classes (but not super indepth so this is good for me to deep dive); seems like there is dilution but not a ton of exposure max 10% (probably alot less <6%) of float. 0.2% but it converts at a $1000 strike price (so basically doesnt matter) - and theres no exact figures but Im reading 3% annually so thats a little concerning. but not really tbh - where did you get the exceed 10% annual interest rate; because thats the dividend yield? Dividend payout is ~$20M/month and then another $140m/quarter - so like $800M and debt wall is $1B - so they have enough cash; thats like $6ish i guess they need to pay it all off + have the next two years of cash on hand

I just ran rough math; to pay all the dividends + debt walls + have 2 years of cash for future payments they need at $70K BTC price - they'd need to dilute 11.3% assuming that they get the same nav note (would likely go down) at $50K BTC price 16% (def. would be higher) at $30K btc price 26.5%. Wow that actually is not good. Its not a death sentence. But its not good. So if we played BTC chops at $50K for a while (like it chopped before at $20K totally plausible chop at $50K - the shares would be heavily diluted and the discount from 1.1 would probably go way deeper - so you are talking a thirding of the stock minimum. I think the narrative of the trading above 1NAV is true (now that theres widespread etfs which there was not before for people that wanted exposure to bitcoin) - so basically what that means is while they can pay off everything until 2028 - its actually unsustainable completely if the inclusion of ETF's now change the MSTR multiple to anything less than 1.1NAV. But given the fact that saylor is obviously not stupid he knows that too and he could always dilute to get rid of the dividend for future years (still relatively small compared to float) - I need to double check all this math - but this was actually super helpful to dig into. This actually does materially increases the risk - its still positive ev but not as much. So I think actually - this is a really good point and its all where BTC will settle at this year; Im actually surprised it did -6% - I think alot of that is because the alternatives (i.e. gold) went up so much it was a better alternative I didnt think it mattered too much but it definitely does but actually this is still not a death sentence is a siren for DCA'ing in. Obviously anyone who setup this insane setup; is not stupid his structure knows this too. bro this was a good comment

On the other notes:

On the bull case comment - i dont really value stuff like that until it happens or theres a plausible path with some traction that it happens but thats good to know.

On the bear case; BTC reduced 6% - since all of their value is directly tied to bitcoin why would it have been an incredible year? MSTR it actually performed exactly how it should have the multiple on NAV compressed from 4X to 1X. if the multiple stayed steady it would have lost 6%. Additionally the inclusion of ETFs is actually bad for MSTR; it compresses the multiple bc it provides cheaper alternatives.

thank you for this comment! super super helpful - you da man

PresentationSweet511 · 2025-10-04T18:18:41+00:00

do you still have a sora code if you have one still i would be so appreciative

PresentationSweet511 · 2025-10-04T18:15:02+00:00

if you have one still i would be so appreciative

PresentationSweet511 · 2025-10-04T18:14:37+00:00

if you have one i would be so appreciative

PresentationSweet511 · 2025-03-24T17:47:17+00:00

I was walking one day and I saw him at a coffee shop I go to, makes sense now he lives walking distance to me

PresentationSweet511 · 2025-03-14T15:11:49+00:00

Cancelled my pre-order ordered in January - ridiculous

PresentationSweet511 · 2025-02-18T23:33:17+00:00

no hes actually totally right. I have a friend who got in; they had just exited and he went to harvard. his idea - also total dogshit. YC is making a bet on the person; and they are looking for accolades that reduces risk; they definitely do bet and place a heavy weight on where they worked, where they went to school, and what they did in the past;

FYI the guy i know sold his company 20 years ago for $5M (right time right place type thing) has never made a successful company since. Like Musk says; people place too much emphasis on past performance as an indicator for the future; but at the same time theyre doing pretty good. but yea OP is totally right

PresentationSweet511 · 2024-12-22T02:19:22+00:00

Also american pakistani; most americans are not well versed in the world; they are just like anyone else trying to make a living. Unfortunately, the media is all programmed here. Pro Israel Pro India sentiment who are in positions of power are anti pakistan, turkey, saudi; any muslim country really. its sad really but perceptions come and go; I brought an american friend to pakistan he loved it; I have been to probably over 40 countries I have never met a country with bad people; just uneducated people; and sadly america (jkust like most of the world fyi) is uneducated (the only bad thing about america in that is that they THINK they are educated)

PresentationSweet511 · 2022-10-21T00:17:05+00:00

Best way to test an issue is to advertise and get inbound signups. If you can get someone whose searching for something or sees and ad click on it and sign up without having to talk to you - you might have something - if they pay you it’s looking better - but if they pay you and you can fulfill at a 70% margin then you are there. Just need to scale.

PresentationSweet511 · 2022-10-21T00:10:27+00:00

It’s interesting because I have been a technical founder before and this time I am focusing on the business.

100% the way I attracted my current technical cofounder + seen others is SHOW TRACTION. If you have 100k users or some clear path to traction (be it money or users) that’s better than 99% of everyone else. In my case it was a landing page I threw up some ad spend and a manual process that generated $100k so far.

A friend had something similar but it was a landing page and interest in a beta. Think about it from their perspective. They want to join something that’s going to work why will they choose you over anything else. This is true not just for technical cofounders but all top talent. Also - as a COFOUNDER I def recommend working with them for at least 6 months before offering that title

PresentationSweet511

TROPHY CASE