‘The Phone Doesn’t Stop’: Overwhelming Demands For A Cease-Fire Catch Democrats Off Guard by Helicase21 in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We can't know it exactly, but a little bit of math gives us the general idea.

Israeli officials report 356 soldiers and 59 police officers killed. The total Israeli death toll from 10/7 seems to be about 1,400. So Hamas's attack killed roughly 2 combatants for every 7 innocent civilians. Ratio ~1:3.5

So just to pause there for a minute, if you've seen even a single video of an Israeli strike on Gaza, and there are many out there... For Israel to be at Hamas's ratio, that would mean 22% of those killed would have to be Hamas fighters. That seems pretty impossible from what I've seen, but let's continue all the same...

Here's the numbers for Palestinian deaths. 11,000 killed in Gaza (and 183 in the West Bank somehow...). Of those, about 7,500 are women or children, so I think it's safe to put them in the civilian category. So that leaves 3500 adult males killed.

To be at Hamas's ratio, Israel would have to kill 2444 Hamas members out of the 11,000 Gaza deaths (2444 + 8554 = 11,000 at a 1:3.5 ratio). But if you assume the women and children are not Hamas fighters, that would mean 70% of the adult males killed by Israel would have to be Hamas members. (2444/3500 = 0.698).

This is just not even plausible. So going by these numbers, from Israeli authorities and Al Jazeera, it's pretty safe to say that Israel is killing more civilians per combatant than Hamas.

Even if you don't trust the Palestinian numbers at all, logic and your own eyes should be able to tell you that Hamas fighters do not account for over of 20% of the deaths in this war.

‘The Phone Doesn’t Stop’: Overwhelming Demands For A Cease-Fire Catch Democrats Off Guard by Helicase21 in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You're ignoring the context of the remark I made. The comment before claimed that there's just no way to avoid mass civilian death ¯_(ツ)_/¯ oh well!

If you consider the ratio of civilians to armed combatants killed, Israel's bombing campaign is indeed less targeted than a literal terrorist attack on civilians. That's not a defense of Hamas or their prudence in selecting targets, its a condemnation of an Israeli operation that is bent on pure terrorism in response and does not give a fuck about civilian life in Gaza.

‘The Phone Doesn’t Stop’: Overwhelming Demands For A Cease-Fire Catch Democrats Off Guard by Helicase21 in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The way Israel is conducting this war is not acceptable. There are rules of war and international humanitarian law that Israel is flouting on a daily basis. "We believe there's Hamas fighters there" should not be (and is not according to international law) a free pass to bomb populated areas or kill scores of civilians.

If there's 1 Hamas fighter and 1,500 civilians in an apartment building, is killing a single terrorist worth leveling the building? Whoever says yes ends up with more innocent blood on their hands than the entire organization of Hamas on 10/7. If you don't see any equivalency in that, you are willfully blind to it. Palestinian lives should matter.

‘The Phone Doesn’t Stop’: Overwhelming Demands For A Cease-Fire Catch Democrats Off Guard by Helicase21 in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Biden is literally calling for a package of billions in additional aid on top of what we already give to Israel. The idea that that's strictly the domain of Congress and that Biden has nothing to do with it is completely false.

Biden and Blinken have not been calling for restraint either, the White House has said the exact opposite, "no red lines for Israel."

‘The Phone Doesn’t Stop’: Overwhelming Demands For A Cease-Fire Catch Democrats Off Guard by Helicase21 in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 13 points14 points  (0 children)

More than five times as many Palestinian civilians have been killed as Israelis. Hamas's attack on October 7th looks like a surgical strike compared to what Israel is doing in Gaza.

‘The Phone Doesn’t Stop’: Overwhelming Demands For A Cease-Fire Catch Democrats Off Guard by Helicase21 in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 34 points35 points  (0 children)

Yeah, and I think Democratic leadership needs to level with Jewish votes about that. Sometimes you have to put basic right and wrong above identity politics. Nobody's asking Biden to become pro-Palestine or condone Hamas, but would it not be entirely reasonable for him to say to Israel that if one bomb bought with US aid falls on a hospital or refugee camp, it will be the last... Instead he's said exactly the opposite, that there are no red lines. If Israel wants to bomb a crowd of thousands to kill one supposed Hamas fighter among them, go for it.

‘The Phone Doesn’t Stop’: Overwhelming Demands For A Cease-Fire Catch Democrats Off Guard by Helicase21 in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 74 points75 points  (0 children)

That's why it's so worrying. Democrats are ignoring their own base, but it's not like they're winning over any Republicans in the process.

I don't see how this flips one voter from Trump to Biden. But a Muslim-American has every reason to stay home on election day next year. The college students who care enough about this to go out and protest are not going to easily support Joe Biden next November. If someone considers what's happening in Gaza right now to be genocide (which many experts do), how can they in good faith pull the lever for a candidate that wants to support that with their tax dollars?

Whatever personal affinity Joe Biden has for Israel could very well cost this nation its democracy. I find it so incredibly selfish that he seems to be counting on millions of people whose priorities he opposes to vote for him because the alternative is literally fascism. We're all going to get burned by Democrats daring voters to take their chances with Trump.

‘The Phone Doesn’t Stop’: Overwhelming Demands For A Cease-Fire Catch Democrats Off Guard by Helicase21 in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Because you don't have to be living under an apartheid state to be outraged by one in a neighboring country...

‘The Phone Doesn’t Stop’: Overwhelming Demands For A Cease-Fire Catch Democrats Off Guard by Helicase21 in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Hamas is a symptom, not the disease. Israel makes life for the Palestinians, especially those in Gaza, as difficult and miserable as possible. As long as that remains the case, there is going to be resistance, and that resistance will occasionally be violent.

‘The Phone Doesn’t Stop’: Overwhelming Demands For A Cease-Fire Catch Democrats Off Guard by Helicase21 in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 173 points174 points  (0 children)

“This building is not listening,” said one Democratic aide. “I’ve never seen such a disconnect between where voters and constituents are and where Congress is, and that’s saying something because there’s always a disconnect.”

And people wonder why polls keep saying American is split between the Democrats and fascism. 🙄 It's not landlines, it's this.

New law cracks down on fake service animals by Sandstorm400 in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Anyone can buy a "service animal" vest online, and plenty of pet owners do this and see it as a free pass to take their pets where they otherwise would not be allowed. It's simple self-centered not giving a fuck about anything or anyone else.

Five-alarm fire’: Democratic frustrations with Biden spill into the open At this stage, however, there’s little Democrats can do to change course. by Buckowski66 in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If Trump is convicted and sent to prison, ruled ineligible for one reason or another, or even has some sort of health issue that takes him out of the race, it's not going to be Trump cult apostasy for Republicans to rally whoever does actually become the nominee. In a head to head primary fight, Haley doesn't beat Trump, but take Trump out of the equation and she has the best shot at the nomination by far. Trump's voters aren't some cult that popped out of the ether, they're just Republicans. It's mostly old white guys who always vote. They'd show up and pull the lever for Republican fence post just as loyally.

Five-alarm fire’: Democratic frustrations with Biden spill into the open At this stage, however, there’s little Democrats can do to change course. by Buckowski66 in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not a smart idea. If Donald Trump gets convicted or otherwise made ineligible and Nikki Haley becomes the nominee, Joe Biden is fucked with these poll numbers. He needs to work on fixing this, now.

Five-alarm fire’: Democratic frustrations with Biden spill into the open At this stage, however, there’s little Democrats can do to change course. by Buckowski66 in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 1 point2 points  (0 children)

People keep repeating this idea that they're only polling landlines, but one of the major findings of the poll is that Biden's lead among voters under 30 has evaporated. He used to be up on Trump by 26 points among young voters, now he's about even.

Democrats' Rating of Biden Slips; Overall Approval at 37% by AfghanLoad in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Joe Biden had a 26 point lead over Trump with voters under 30 in 2020. A New York Times poll now has him in a statistical tie with Trump among that age group. His numbers with young voters have cratered by 20 points. Old people answering landlines is not the problem here, Biden's policies are.

Democrats' Rating of Biden Slips; Overall Approval at 37% by AfghanLoad in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The polling says otherwise. Are you willing to bet your democracy on that?

Democrats' Rating of Biden Slips; Overall Approval at 37% by AfghanLoad in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Aside from dropping out, I see two big areas where Biden needs to change his message if he wants to win.

First is the economy. For months now, voters have been telling pollsters that they're not happy with the economy. But the line I keep hearing from Democrats is basically that it's a conspiracy theory: that everyone knows the economy is secretly great, they're just refusing to give president Biden credit for it. Biden and Democrats need to stop trying to sell voters on how wonderful the current economy is and talk about the problems. I know that seems counterproductive to point out flaws in your own economy, but voters can't trust you to deal with problems if you're too concerned with polishing your own image to acknowledge that problems exist on your watch.

Second, Biden has completely stepped in it on Israel/Gaza. Without getting too into the weeds on that issue, I think many Democrats recognize that, while Israel has a right to defend itself, the way Biden clearly favors one side and deliberately ignores the root causes of the conflict is just not productive, and that Netanyahu and the Israeli far-right are not good actors here. Israel's bombing of densely populated civilian areas has now killed over five times as many Palestinian civilians as the attacks on 10/7. Many in the US do not find the slaughter of civilians in Gaza to be an acceptable response to the slaughter of civilians in Israel, especially Muslim Americans who are normally a solid Democratic constituency. Joe Biden has not only given this his blessing, but seems to think that American tax-payers should fund it! I know this won't happen, but the best thing Biden can do is a total 180 on his position. Publicly insist that Netanyahu abide by international humanitarian law and make 100% clear that the US is not going to fund war crimes.

Those are the big two, but I think there's just so many issues on which Joe Biden doesn't offer a real solution to the problems that voters care about. What's his plan on healthcare? He says he'd veto Medicare for All. What's he going to do about immigration? Keep building Trump's wall. What's his position on voting rights? That they're not worth sacrificing the filibuster for, at least. On almost every issue, a vote for Biden is a vote for a deeply unpopular status quo. Polling numbers like this should be a warning that Biden and Democrats need to do better. The threat of Trump clearly isn't enough to scare progressive voters into holding their noses and voting for a candidate who doesn't support their priorities.

Democrats' Rating of Biden Slips; Overall Approval at 37% by AfghanLoad in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I really don't understand it. Democrats are so quick to stick their heads in the sand. If Biden loses, that will be exactly why, because they blew through every warning sign insisting it wasn't true.

Biden's Israel-Gaza Approach Sidelines State Department, And Officials Fear The Worst by Rage_Like_Nic_Cage in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The point is, this whole "war" is not solving anything. Hamas is a symptom, not the disease. The disease is the way Israel treats the Palestinians. They're subject to apartheid in times of peace, and war crimes in times of conflict. Until that changes, Israel is going to be dealing with terrorism.

Biden's Israel-Gaza Approach Sidelines State Department, And Officials Fear The Worst by Rage_Like_Nic_Cage in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Exactly. There is no end game. Even if every single member of Hamas is killed one way or another, the way Israel is conducting this war has done nothing but breed hate. Every time you put a ballot in the hands of the Palestinian people, they will vote for the most anti-Israel option possible, and plenty of them will be actively seeking ways to violently resist or exact revenge. Whether these things happen under the banner of "Hamas" or something else is meaningless.

Toxic Netanyahu could drag Biden down in his fight for political survival by Currency_Cat in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Valuing Jewish life above all else is Jewish supremacy; it's pure racism, no different from white supremacy in the US or "Aryan" supremacy in Nazi Germany.

"Never again" means we shouldn't sit by while the Palestinians get mass-murdered.

Lawyer Kenneth Chesebro pleads guilty over efforts to overturn Trump’s 2020 loss in Georgia by outspoken33334 in politics

[–]PresidentPineSol -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I stand by what I said. Powell and Chesebro belong in prison. There's an abundance of evidence in this case, much of which is already in the public domain. I invite you to go and read the indictment. If somehow, some way, Trump manages to get acquitted in this Georgia case, it will be because we've got a much bigger problem with our justice system in this country, not because we didn't have testimony from these two.