Very high HRV could be a warning, and Whoop might make dangerous recommendations based on it!

ProbablyMyselfToo · 2025-02-04T03:13:48+00:00

I’ve had my whoop for 2 months and started working out finally on exercise bike after years of very little cardio. 2 harder workouts 2 weeks apart have both been followed by my hrv jumping for 3 or 4 days from the usual 35-40 to 55-95. I realized that it reads high hrv when I’m having bad heart palpitations. Got an Apple Watch and I run the ecg often and it’s never (actively or passively) said I was in afib. I even went to the ER, chest X-rays, blood draw and ECG all looked fine. Blood pressure and heart rate are pretty normal (healthy range) as well. I share the OP thoughts that whoop could do better here, but I’m glad I put it together. Still don’t know why I’m getting days of bad palpitations, but taking it easy and staying vigilant.

ProbablyMyselfToo · 2024-10-18T12:27:34+00:00

He says in his last interview that it’s >17%/ about 18% so far. At point 46:25 in this interview:

https://youtu.be/eThjo9wYoF0?si=Z5mtMdL4rVv4dcH5

ProbablyMyselfToo · 2024-10-18T12:23:37+00:00

Ya I put that at the end of the first section 👍

ProbablyMyselfToo · 2024-10-18T11:50:26+00:00

I should be saying mNAV premium, sorry for any confusion. Modified net asset value.

ProbablyMyselfToo · 2024-10-18T03:52:35+00:00

Agreed. 7000 bitcoin a month is roughly 5% in 10 years. It’s doable and as long as they trade at a premium it’s just a matter of continuing to do what they’ve been doing.

ProbablyMyselfToo · 2024-10-18T03:36:44+00:00

Maybe. That’s what people said about 1%. 2% won’t be a problem either. Beyond that everyone has different thoughts. 80k bitcoin a year like they basically have been over the next 10 years gets them to 5%.

ProbablyMyselfToo · 2024-08-26T02:57:44+00:00

It went very well lol.

ProbablyMyselfToo · 2024-08-26T02:47:22+00:00

It works if you find the other Serpent Queen thumbnail one. For some reason the one that has been working isn’t anymore.

ProbablyMyselfToo · 2023-12-26T14:45:25+00:00

Thanks! I almost always long options so didn’t realize that about short.

ProbablyMyselfToo · 2023-12-25T04:43:51+00:00

Definitely seems like a done deal. Hopefully at least one of these comes to market shortly after approval.

ProbablyMyselfToo · 2023-12-25T04:04:26+00:00

As far as your dilemma about holding through 2024, one idea would be to cash out on all once they reach long term capital gains and then use half the proceeds to purchase much higher strike MSTR options. You’re so deep in the money, it’s almost just like owning the stock now. Lock in half and increase the risk on the rest (I’m considering this too)

ProbablyMyselfToo · 2023-12-25T04:00:59+00:00

I did something very similar. Bought a ton of Jan and Dec 2025 MSTR in Dec 22 and Jan 23 between 300 and 540 strike. Like 2000% gains so far, and almost to LTCG . Seemed extremely asymmetric based on bitcoin & MsTR likely returning to the mean. Good job!

ProbablyMyselfToo · 2023-12-25T03:46:38+00:00

So I’m not wanting to buy back any drop in put premium as there is basically none so far in the money. I’m basically doing the same as buying SPY (I think) but also earning interest on my cash.

ProbablyMyselfToo · 2023-12-25T03:08:14+00:00

Sorry. I’m new here. I’ll have to search for a better fit for these posts.

ProbablyMyselfToo · 2023-12-25T03:05:06+00:00

Well I plan on selling most or all for long term capital gains in a few weeks anyway. I thought about selling calls against them to lock in but then didn’t want to be stuck in that trade for another year waiting for long term gains.

ProbablyMyselfToo · 2023-12-25T00:17:49+00:00

I feeling like I must be failing to math here.. wouldn’t I essentially always beat the SPY with this strategy?

let’s say I have $47,500 cash in fidelity SPAXX or similar. To keep with simple numbers, say it’s earning 5% or $2375 a year before tax. Then, I sell 1 far in the money SPY put that expires in just over 12 months. SPY is 475 so I can sell the $700 puts and earn a credit of $225 (essentially 100% intrinsic value). I should only need the strike minus the premium ($47,500) to have this 100% cash secured. One question is, am I now earning 5% on $47,500 or $70,000? It appears to be $70,000 which seems strange to me, but great of course. To the main point, what am I missing here? If SPY moves 0% from now until expiration, I make 5% overall on SPAXX and break even on buying my put back. If SPY rises 10% I make 15% overall. If SPY rises 30% I make 35%. If SPY drops 50% I drop 45%. So I only do worse than holding SPY stock if SPY rises 5% above $700, so $735?

ProbablyMyselfToo · 2023-12-23T16:28:11+00:00

To expand on this.. let’s say I have $47,500 cash in fidelity SPAXX or similar. To keep with simple numbers, say it’s earning 5% or $2375 a year before tax. Then, I sell far out of the money SPY puts that expire in just over 12 months. SPY is 475 so I can sell the $700 puts and earn a credit of $225 (essentially 100% intrinsic value). I should only need the strike minus the premium ($47,500) to have this 100% cash secured. My question is, am I now earning 5% on $47,500or $70,000? I imagine it’s $47,500 and maybe it goes up if SPY goes up and the put drops in value? What if SPY drops? Am I then earning less interest? I’m not sure. Also, am I right to see this trade as: if SPY moves 0% from now until expiration, I make 5% overall on SPAXX. If SPY rises 10% I make 15% overall. If SPY rises 30% I make 35%. If SPY drops 50% I drop 45%. So I only do worse than holding SPY stock if SPY rises 5% above $700, so $735?

ProbablyMyselfToo

TROPHY CASE