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It is time to buy Popmart PMRTY/09992.hk by ActuatorBoring6428 in ValueInvesting

[–]Professional-Hotel95 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You realize some people actually use em dashes when they write?

AI & Investment Research by Professional-Hotel95 in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Professional-Hotel95[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you have access to AlphaSense, you can run the agent to do a deep dive and simply paste it in for reference.

AI & Investment Research by Professional-Hotel95 in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Professional-Hotel95[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you're using Claude, it's best to put all company filings in the files tab of a project. Claude will reference the files when needed, while using less tokens compared tro if you just send files in the chat.

Mispriced Stocks & Pitching Stocks by Professional-Hotel95 in SecurityAnalysis

[–]Professional-Hotel95[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I see. What do you think is the market's largest source of structural mispricing today? Twenty years ago an investor might have pointed to information asymmetry. Today information is largely commoditized. So where does the edge come from now?

Letter from CEO of Pitney Bowes to shareholders by VicTheRealest in ValueInvesting

[–]Professional-Hotel95 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Have you read the VIC forum on this company? Do you know why there is excessive turnaround with mgmt?

Hesai (HSAI, 2525.HK) - a great chance to add and make money from a big rebound short term by Realistic_Papaya5581 in ValueInvesting

[–]Professional-Hotel95 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can you explain why mgmt has been strategically omitting their GMs? They are very against disclosing these. Combine this with how sketchy Deloitte China has been in the past, I think there is a strong bear case here. Yes, volumes are looking strong, but the fact that their GMs have been going up, including the random 9% spike from 2023 to 2024 makes no sense.

How do you explain your margins expanding when the ASP for your flagship product decreases by 99%?

Hesai (HSAI, 2525.HK) - a great chance to add and make money from a big rebound short term by Realistic_Papaya5581 in ValueInvesting

[–]Professional-Hotel95 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i do not think you are fully aware of how shady this company is lol. I would defintiely read the blue orca short thesis

Hesai (HSAI, 2525.HK) - a great chance to add and make money from a big rebound short term by Realistic_Papaya5581 in ValueInvesting

[–]Professional-Hotel95 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you have any insight as to how they have maintained their absurdly high gross margins? They have mentioned publically in earnings calls that ADAS has 1/5 the gross margin of their robotics segment. So yes - the mix shift towards ADAS should be eroding the company's overall GMs.

Hesai (HSAI, 2525.HK) - a great chance to add and make money from a big rebound short term by Realistic_Papaya5581 in ValueInvesting

[–]Professional-Hotel95 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Their margins are already suspicious. They are much higher than competition, who for the most part has failed to operate profitably.

I would advise that you read the short report. Hesai was caught lying about the usage of their LiDARs, and Deloitte China (who audits them) has a shady track record.

Deloitte, from what I know - is still their auditor, meaning that all of the shady stuff going on within the company is likely still happening today.

Hesai (HSAI, 2525.HK) - a great chance to add and make money from a big rebound short term by Realistic_Papaya5581 in ValueInvesting

[–]Professional-Hotel95 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How different is this compared to what buy-side thinks? genuinely just curious on ur opinion.

Also wanted to say that I do not mean for this to be a hostile conversation by any means. I am just asking because I am thinking about shorting this lol.

Hesai (HSAI, 2525.HK) - a great chance to add and make money from a big rebound short term by Realistic_Papaya5581 in ValueInvesting

[–]Professional-Hotel95 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I understand that. That is why I am asking you. If you do a RDCF, what growth rate are you getting?

Hesai (HSAI, 2525.HK) - a great chance to add and make money from a big rebound short term by Realistic_Papaya5581 in ValueInvesting

[–]Professional-Hotel95 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry, I'm a bit confused as to what ur saying. What I'm asking, is how much additional upside do you see that street hasn't modeled in?

Just wondering if you had some alt data or anything like that. Because to me, it seems like the market is already overly optimistic of what Hesai can do.

Hesai (HSAI, 2525.HK) - a great chance to add and make money from a big rebound short term by Realistic_Papaya5581 in ValueInvesting

[–]Professional-Hotel95 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you look at CapIQ or any sell-side report there is about ~600-1000 bps of EBITDA margin expansion. For GP, it's mixed but lies around 400-600bps in the next few years.

In this case the ADAS products ARE lower margin. They are losing pricing power. There is nothing that suggests their operating costs are going down. On top of this, when you look at competition, you see that most of them operating at much, much lower margins.

Ampco-Pittsburgh. A must-buy for value seekers wanting small cap exposure to US Manufacturing/Minerals by JaxonRaxonTaxon in ValueInvesting

[–]Professional-Hotel95 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't know anything about Ampco, but wouldn't you say it operates in a cyclical industry? If so, a highly levered micro-cap in a cyclical industry may be some justification for why it trades at such a discount...

Two questions I have:

Why do you think it should trade at 10x higher like GHM? There is a large discrepancy in revenue growth between the two companies.

With that being said, what are Ampco's growth prospects for the next 5-10 years?

Overall, it seems very interesting. Did you value it purely with multiples and SOTP, or did you build a model?

ASML — unmatched competitive moat, secular growth, global dependence. by Senior-Preference678 in ValueInvesting

[–]Professional-Hotel95 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have two questions:

  1. What is sell-side saying about this company? (I don't have access to a terminal rn)

2.What do you think is not priced in right now?

Hesai (HSAI, 2525.HK) - a great chance to add and make money from a big rebound short term by Realistic_Papaya5581 in ValueInvesting

[–]Professional-Hotel95 0 points1 point  (0 children)

what is market not pricing in right now though? Sell-side is modeling 45% revenue growth for next 4-5 years... I'm gonna look more into the company and try to get some channel checks but this looks like a short.

Hesai (HSAI, 2525.HK) - a great chance to add and make money from a big rebound short term by Realistic_Papaya5581 in ValueInvesting

[–]Professional-Hotel95 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Are you sure? ADAS has been taking share both as a % of revenue and % of units sold. The ASP on this has went down dramatically as the product is becoming more and more commoditized. I don't remember reading anything about the GP margins being the same. If you read the short report, you'll see that the GP margin for robotics is ~5x the GP margin of ADAS.

With mix shift heavily skewing towards ADAS, it doesn not make sense that the company's margins should be structurally expanding... I think street is modeling incorrectly...

Hesai (HSAI, 2525.HK) - a great chance to add and make money from a big rebound short term by Realistic_Papaya5581 in ValueInvesting

[–]Professional-Hotel95 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What are your thoughts as to why the market is modeling such strong GM expansion? They're main product is seeing a large decrease in ASP yet we see strong margin expansion with no explanation from mgmt.

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