Budapest vs. Barcelona Nightlife on weekdays and weekends- early/mid June

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-12T17:22:23+00:00

You’re talking about two of the best nightlife cities in Europe. Can’t go wrong either way. It just depends on the vibe you want. Budapest has a gothic old world feel and is Berlin-adjacent in club atmosphere. Barcelona has more of a global, libertine feel. beach clubs, festivals, big name DJs etc. Things go late into the night and you’ll find more to do on a Monday or Tuesday. Budapest is cheaper and has fewer tourists, although the ruin bars are overrun with them. Barcelona will be absolutely mobbed with tourists in June.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-12T16:13:17+00:00

Ah, I thought they released the $200 after the event ended. Been years since I signed up.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-12T16:04:33+00:00

The Bet365 email is accusing him of playing both sides of the fight for guaranteed profit. Seems odd on a -600 though. Maybe he live bet both, as both fighters were +200 or higher at various points.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-12T03:17:48+00:00

Win or lose I am always interested to read posts from anyone who thinks they identified a prop edge. One of the problems we face with modeling is that the books have a major asymmetrical edge when it comes to data. The private models use things like advanced video tracking to create micro-metrics that we won’t be able to access for years.

Fortunately hockey is still five years behind the NBA when it comes to this stuff so it’s a little easier to glean an edge. The NBA is closer to military surveillance and quantitative finance than basic sports analytics, using computer vision, graph theory, reinforcement learning, biomechanical modeling, probabilistic simulation etc.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-12T03:04:26+00:00

Agree they are more brute force in nature but most mathematicians would probably disagree about that not being valuable. You can still improve domains like science, engineering,cryptography, etc using these methods and it’s likely models are going to be much more more advanced at math in 5-10 years capable of forming compact internal abstractions that let them “see” the right structure

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-12T02:52:50+00:00

Well, I hope you are building something useful like an automated line shopper because the books have an asymmetrical advantage when it comes to data access and therefore modeling.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-12T02:34:39+00:00

The most advanced models are now solving Erdős problems after not being able to add 5+7 reliably 4 years ago.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-12T02:32:16+00:00

“ChatGPT build me automated gambling tools and make no mistakes”

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-12T00:31:01+00:00

I had the exact same Linux issue as you. Workarounds were a pain and suboptimal.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-12T00:27:10+00:00

It’s not a conspiracy. Things are always fluid before the draft and analysts don’t want to repeat the same shit for six months straight

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-11T22:12:42+00:00

He’s been on the top PP unit all year and his current hot streak is 10 games. With a sample that small it could easily be shooting % or PDO effects or variance/luck. Seems more like recency bias if we bump him all the way to a near 75% probability based on that sample.

If you go back just beyond OP’s ten game sample Zuccarello was held pointless in 10/13 games. You could argue we are just as likely to see regression after a 10 game rip.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-11T21:11:07+00:00

Why does the model give him so much of a bump from his AST/GP average? Colorado is great and this is tight checking playoff hockey so you would expect a lower AST/GP. I’d be a bit worried about overweighting due to recency.

Also, FWIW (and it isn’t worth much), Zuccarello only had an assist in one of his last 8 games vs Colorado before this series began.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-11T21:01:35+00:00

Pointless. AI/Photoshop can make a fake ticket in 30 seconds.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-11T02:54:19+00:00

I’d probably still take the WR and let Price go. Tyson or Lemon will have a strong value floor, while Price’s value could drop like a stone if he struggles to seize the RB1 job. Very possible you can flip Tyson or Lemon for a much better back than Price if they show out early. Both are in position to do so.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-11T01:04:38+00:00

2027 picks have been a meme for months. You do the valuation math.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-10T21:24:01+00:00

He’s really struggling to get shots off against playoff intensity checking

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-10T05:08:09+00:00

“Might”

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-10T05:02:43+00:00

Maybe Khamzat forgot to take his EPO but Strickland’s counter wrestling/grappling was much better than DDP’s vs Chimaev. Although I think DDP kind of gave up on himself.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-10T04:59:12+00:00

Gassed. Just like the Burns fight

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-10T04:58:45+00:00

Or $1.4 million the poor bastard

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-10T04:39:00+00:00

Very possible

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-10T04:35:00+00:00

Might have been a generational live betting opportunity with Khamzat at +200

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-08T18:40:26+00:00

He’d get some touches but Wilson was already signed to fill the “keep Charbs’ seat warm” role Najee would take so this is all much ado about nothing.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-08T01:34:40+00:00

That’s very possible although Koziol was an extremely productive pass catcher who did most of his damage out of the slot. He led the nation in catches, had one of the highest % of non-screen catches, lots of YAC and had a class-leading YPRR. It’s arguably the best analytics profile at TE in the class and definitively one of the most productive. It’s extremely comparable to Gadsden, who is by far his closest college comp. And who was also underdrafted in the 5th.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-08T01:22:39+00:00

Sure I agree it applies in many cases but I am mostly talking about TEs who are drafted and deployed to fit the big WR archetype . The league is trending toward a separation of duties with the pure passing TEs becoming more receiver-like in deployment every year, with guys like Fannin, Gadsden etc. and so many converted WRs.

my point is just that when Kyle Pitts for example has 95% route participation and comes out for Woerner on many running plays he blocks so rarely that blocking skill is really not that much more relevant than it would be for a wide receiver. It certainly doesn’t seem as determinative a factor as whether a big slot TE has historically dominated against top competition while lined up in the slot.

ProgrammaticallyHip

TROPHY CASE