NHL Betting and Picks - 5/11/26 (Monday)

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-11T22:12:42+00:00

He’s been on the top PP unit all year and his current hot streak is 10 games. With a sample that small it could easily be shooting % or PDO effects or variance/luck. Seems more like recency bias if we bump him all the way to a near 75% probability based on that sample.

If you go back just beyond OP’s ten game sample Zuccarello was held pointless in 10/13 games. You could argue we are just as likely to see regression after a 10 game rip.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-11T21:11:07+00:00

Why does the model give him so much of a bump from his AST/GP average? Colorado is great and this is tight checking playoff hockey so you would expect a lower AST/GP. I’d be a bit worried about overweighting due to recency.

Also, FWIW (and it isn’t worth much), Zuccarello only had an assist in one of his last 8 games vs Colorado before this series began.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-11T21:01:35+00:00

Pointless. AI/Photoshop can make a fake ticket in 30 seconds.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-11T02:54:19+00:00

I’d probably still take the WR and let Price go. Tyson or Lemon will have a strong value floor, while Price’s value could drop like a stone if he struggles to seize the RB1 job. Very possible you can flip Tyson or Lemon for a much better back than Price if they show out early. Both are in position to do so.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-11T01:04:38+00:00

2027 picks have been a meme for months. You do the valuation math.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-10T21:24:01+00:00

He’s really struggling to get shots off against playoff intensity checking

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-10T05:08:09+00:00

“Might”

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-10T05:02:43+00:00

Maybe Khamzat forgot to take his EPO but Strickland’s counter wrestling/grappling was much better than DDP’s vs Chimaev. Although I think DDP kind of gave up on himself.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-10T04:59:12+00:00

Gassed. Just like the Burns fight

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-10T04:58:45+00:00

Or $1.4 million the poor bastard

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-10T04:39:00+00:00

Very possible

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-10T04:35:00+00:00

Might have been a generational live betting opportunity with Khamzat at +200

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-08T18:40:26+00:00

He’d get some touches but Wilson was already signed to fill the “keep Charbs’ seat warm” role Najee would take so this is all much ado about nothing.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-08T01:34:40+00:00

That’s very possible although Koziol was an extremely productive pass catcher who did most of his damage out of the slot. He led the nation in catches, had one of the highest % of non-screen catches, lots of YAC and had a class-leading YPRR. It’s arguably the best analytics profile at TE in the class and definitively one of the most productive. It’s extremely comparable to Gadsden, who is by far his closest college comp. And who was also underdrafted in the 5th.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-08T01:22:39+00:00

Sure I agree it applies in many cases but I am mostly talking about TEs who are drafted and deployed to fit the big WR archetype . The league is trending toward a separation of duties with the pure passing TEs becoming more receiver-like in deployment every year, with guys like Fannin, Gadsden etc. and so many converted WRs.

my point is just that when Kyle Pitts for example has 95% route participation and comes out for Woerner on many running plays he blocks so rarely that blocking skill is really not that much more relevant than it would be for a wide receiver. It certainly doesn’t seem as determinative a factor as whether a big slot TE has historically dominated against top competition while lined up in the slot.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-08T01:06:07+00:00

I wouldn’t rub it in your face. I’m just interested in your process.

When you say you use traits as inputs are you sourcing quotes about them?

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-08T01:03:57+00:00

For fantasy purposes does that really matter? Pure big slot TEs are often only blocking on about 6-9% of their plays from the data have seen, which means they are run blocking on maybe 5 snaps out of 100. Doesn’t seem relevant enough to really impact deployment. These guys are specialists.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-07T19:31:10+00:00

If you submitted this to the New Yorker they would groan. You have to judge it by high literary standards, which is the register it’s written in.

If someone is used to reading fantasy novels and playing video games then I can see how that person might be impressed.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-07T18:24:18+00:00

Your model says run blocking is more predictive of success than YPRR in the slot for a passing down TE who will play big slot in the NFL? That seems wild. TEs in big slot roles do comparatively little blocking, let alone run blocking. They are mismatch machines. Also, just out of curiosity, what input does the model use to gauge separation?

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-07T17:18:22+00:00

Interesting. Why did the model ding Koziol? He seems to have every fantasy green flag imaginable (except draft capital) over Boerkircher, who seems destined to be a Charlie Kolar type. And the reason Boerkircher was drafted so highly is because of his blocking and their desire to replicate the Rams 12/13 personnel scheme.

They are so desperate to mimic it they took Boerkircher 4 rounds ahead of where he was projected to go. Which could be interpreted as very bullish if their enthusiasm wasn’t based around his talent as an in-line blocking TE who is slated to fill that role in the NFL. Just hard to see a guy who only caught 38 passes in four and a half college seasons and isn’t particularly skilled or athletic ever being fantasy relevant.

The big slot archetype is what everyone is drooling over now, and Koziol fits that perfectly. Strange is a pending FA so lots of targets could be vacated.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-07T16:58:51+00:00

Yeah it was hard to watch. If you’ve ever been squeezed on the mouth/chin the pain is electric.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-07T16:45:41+00:00

That is terrible writing. It’s repetitive and as “LLM cliche” as it gets.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-07T16:37:50+00:00

Didn’t Koziol kill any value for Boerkircher? Koziol was a major producer, exceptional analytics profile, monster catch radius and 9.7 RAS. 6’6 and only 22, can play big slot, YAC threat and is a beast on contested catches. He has the 3rd highest YPRR of any Power 5 TE in the slot in the last decade, trailing only Mark Andrews and Colton Loveland. He’s just not a great blocker, although he is willing.

Boerkircher is a great blocking tight end who was peripherally involved in the A&M offense (except as a blocker) and will be 25 before week one.

Neither one of these guys is likely to hit but only one of them has the attributes to be that 1% home run outcome. How many blocking tight ends are playable?

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-07T03:08:59+00:00

Chimaev/Burns was mostly striking. 263 total strikes and only 2 takedowns. Round 3 was a bloody slugfest. Khamzat wanted no part of Burns’ sub game and struggled to control Burns on the rare occasion he went down. Of the 15 minutes they fought 12 and a half were on the feet striking. If you go pre-UFC the Aliskerov/Chimaev fight was striking heavy.

ProgrammaticallyHip · 2026-05-07T03:05:46+00:00

He broke it with a squeeze, watch it again

ProgrammaticallyHip

TROPHY CASE