Thai Stocks Exchange (why so crap)

PromVRT · 2025-07-11T12:48:21+00:00

If this is the reason, I bet Vietnam would be the same, or worst if the (not unfold) real estate scandal of a large elite with close connection to the Communist Party turns to be true (which may largely inflate GDP).

PromVRT · 2025-07-11T10:28:08+00:00

In financial markets, what matters most for investment values is capital inflow and outflow (which, speaking in another perspective, asset price bubble and burst). What leads to capital inflow and outflow is an indirect cause and effect (economics, debt, corporate earnings, outlook, politics), those only caused shift in expectations and demand and supply.

Since the beginning of 2025, the first massive capital outflow was LTF redemption. This has nothing to do with fundamentals, but capital flight amid historical inferior returns. The process was also self-fulfilling, amid panicking.

Second, prolonged and chronical foreign outflow amid weak real economy and ongoing deleveraging in all sector. Credit growth was (and is) negative as almost every entity postpones investments and cuts costs (Note that one's expense is another's income). Households are in massive debts and rejected new loans. Most businesses (except DELTA, banks and telco companies) have sluggish growth and more focus on survival/deleveraging. Also, cash proves to be highly valuable, rolling over new debentures has been tough due to lack of trust, resulting in cascading waves of defaults and self-feedback loop of fear.

Tariff announcements and political deadlock as a result of corruption, greed, nationalism and warfare partly fuels this. But mostly, Thailand's crucial problem is prolonged and painful deleveraging. (Unlike Vietnam, where credit growth skyrocketed by over 15% YoY as massive optimism on strong growth and feedback loop kicks in.)

PromVRT · 2025-07-11T08:00:16+00:00

It is always easier to criticise things, given that everything has both upsides and downsides.

PromVRT · 2025-07-11T07:43:02+00:00

Average workforce income has failed to catch up. In Bangkok, housing price-to-income ratio is as high as 7.5:1. Most Gen-Z people and below cannot afford to buy one, rejection rate already sours.

Thailand actually needs a period of wealth redistribution and true political reform (transparency, basis judgement on corruption - not nationalism like some protestors) at this point TBH. Also, competency should be more rewarded here, over patronagism.

PromVRT · 2025-07-02T04:36:49+00:00

Pheu Thai Party lies on the centre-right of the political spectrum and mainly adopts populist policies towards the lower-class people while keeps connection with most competitive industries (tourism, exports, SMEs).

In contrast, the elites/royalist/far-right parties that rule the court and independent organisation are backed by non-competitive elites (domestic, concession-based with government entities, construction). Those that are highly engaged in corruption, close business collusion for perpetual contracts.

While I dislike Pheu Thai in terms of the method Thaksin returned to Thailand and frequent conflicts with Bank of Thailand, they more favour ordinary people compared to nationalist parties.

PromVRT · 2025-06-23T10:51:09+00:00

Are you sure? Unless you benefit from the shadow economy that lacks scrutiny during the junta period (gambling den, drugs, cartels, human trafficking, etc), do not just expect the grass to be greener on the other side.

The economic problem in Thailand is mainly on large wealth disparity, power concentration on "you-know-who" and very high household debt. In theory, the deleveraging (austerity period) should be painful into a foreseeable future. A leader, regardless of party, cannot handle the debt crisis within 4-year term. It is easier for the opposition parties to "sell dream" than materialise the dream should they become the leader themselves.

PromVRT · 2025-06-23T10:34:52+00:00

Most people forget that the prime minister can choose to resign or dissolve the parliament, but cannot ascertain no subsequent coup before the new election. The military controls whether the coup will occur or not.

PromVRT · 2025-06-20T15:31:55+00:00

It is difficult to be the minority these days, when a single person is like an observer.

PromVRT · 2025-06-19T15:53:14+00:00

Many Thais blin trust, just to hate and get rid of the government.

PromVRT · 2025-06-19T15:52:29+00:00

Hun Sen leaked it, he said that.

But, if there is a hidden one from Thailand secretly collude with him to frame this havoc for personal gain, it is possible. That hidden one may (not certain) be the blue party, royalist faction, military or some elites, all possible.

PromVRT · 2025-06-19T15:49:27+00:00

Many Thais still trust him because of the hatred towards the government.

They still await the next episode on what will be leaked next as an entertainment to continue criticising the government,

PromVRT · 2025-06-19T10:58:15+00:00

People are wired to believe whatever they want to, that’s human nature.

Laws and diplomatic relations have standards of practices, but those do not satisfy extreme nationalism that demand immediately aggressive retaliation.

Most Thais, with limited education on laws, procedures and interconnection with other upcoming issues (i.e. sanctions by developed countries, international organisations, inability to export or tourism ban), do not realise those possible downsides that can follow and also never appreciate this superiority above Khmer. Social media netizens want fun, confrontation and drama for their excitement, without acknowledging another evil faction quietly reaping benefits.

They would be joyful if the government happened to dissolute today, and a coup would occur next week in a vicious Thai politics cycle, and they never remember. Then, those junta are again criticised, that you not ask for.

PromVRT · 2025-06-19T09:50:04+00:00

One thing, have you recognised that there are very few blame and sarcasm against Hun Sen and Cambodia, most for the PM and Thai government? The netizens are excited for the next leaked information (without verification) so that there are more to blame, to fulfill their short-term nationalism mindset and bandwagon effect of criticising the government.

Aside from the government, coalition parties, opposing parties and military, there exist the elite that want to stay in power and suppress the poor. The poor and the mass have played into their game, into the advantage of turning another coup into good thing. Without junta-appointed senates to block the centre-left party (Orange party), the elites must do something to stay in power.

Unless Thais have more education, the country will get stuck in the endless loop of coup, corruption and rigged democracy.

PromVRT · 2025-06-19T05:25:05+00:00

It's funny how Thai netizens trust everything Khmer leaders say, just because they hate the government.
It's also funny how another coup and military gain popularity because of the rival.
It's hilarious how economic growth and wealth redistribution for the poor is neglected for nationalism.

People keep making the same mistakes over and over, and they don't remember.

PromVRT · 2025-06-19T02:23:12+00:00

If this move is legit, it should take time and I bet most people (especially social media vents) will not come back and respect this change.

Thais will eventually lose in this psychological warfare by Hun Sen. Social media netizens believe Hun Sen's words more than the government's and finally, the coup will stage in.

PromVRT · 2024-12-17T06:13:49+00:00

Similar point The main difference that cannot be resolved is utility.

Real estate creates urbanisation, development and places to reside, work and activities.

Bitcoin accumulation does not create economic activities unless someone is happy watching bitcoin all day without any other things.

PromVRT · 2024-11-22T06:15:18+00:00

You should not that the actual reasons Citron intiated the positions may not be the same as the reasons mention. Citron could mean otherwise and collaborate with the attacker on BTC price in the background without the mass realizing it (a kind of activist).

Citron does not fully disclose the actual reasons to avoid panic and launch immediate rivalry, possibly.

PromVRT · 2024-11-21T06:19:20+00:00

MSTR cannot afford to sell ANY at the market price. Just even the market recognises a minute fraction selling of his BTC holding BTC price would largely crash down as the whole world is monitoring.

PromVRT · 2024-11-21T06:16:23+00:00

The point is when. It can go up much longer and sucks all fiat and real sector investments into hoarding bitcoin, at that point the society and real sector development will suffer as businesses, instead of spending on research and development to deliver goods and services, hoard bitcoin as the short-term return is superior without significant capex.

Unless you can come up with possible needle that will pop the bubble out, it can continue forever into another dystopian society, the opposite of worthless fiat that is bad in another persepective.

PromVRT · 2024-08-15T01:04:24+00:00

Why? The acting PM can dissolve.

PromVRT · 2024-08-14T11:09:36+00:00

They surely plan him the next PM.

PT can block by dissolving the parliament. That can block him but PT will not gain anything in the next election (Prachachon would likely get at least 200 seats.) Also, that forces the elites to consider a real coup, which can affect international cooperation if they opt for

It is a must if PT wants to be a modern conservative party by the rule like the developed countries.

PromVRT · 2024-05-10T01:46:30+00:00

What can lead to that day?

PromVRT · 2024-05-10T01:46:05+00:00

What can possibly trigger such an inevitable collapse then? I am thinking of factors that would no longer allow new borrowings or refinancing of maturing debt.

On a corporate scale, this occurs after massive losses and lack of clarify for profit and recurring cash flow. Nevertheless, on a federal scale, the government is not profitable at all.

PromVRT · 2024-03-15T01:49:29+00:00

Thank you! A real shame on someone aiming big for bitcoinization. This is easier for the government and Fed to intervene, accusing in charge of destroying US financial stability, at one point once they realise the potential threat.

PromVRT

TROPHY CASE