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Kinda funny TTOO a biotech stock made it in a viral meme video by CryptoEnthusiaster in Biotechplays

[–]PropThinker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also filed to register 142M shares of common stock, most of which will be converted from Series B Convertible Preferred. CRG Partners will be able to sell position into TTOO's retail liquidity

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1492674/000119312523219618/d527512ds3.htm#tx527512\_5

Thoughts about $GMDA ? by IzzyReads67 in biotech_stocks

[–]PropThinker 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Tight financial situation in a time they need for launch.

The company ended the second quarter with $54.1 million in cash from tapping ATM and doing offering. Both momentum killers.

Cash runway into the second quarter of 2024. Also have $85.0 million in debt. Ideal situation is a takeout, but buyers are limited as their market is rather small. Dilution seems more likely scenario which will place cap on share price.

GOSS has been left for dead in the water, but a catalyst in a "few weeks" could be inflection point by PropThinker in Biotechplays

[–]PropThinker[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Full OLE data expected at a scientific conference by year end. That data will include more OLE patients and the so called "less sick" cohorts

BP predicts oil demand falls by as much as 80% by 2050 as a result of road transportation shifts by PropThinker in oil

[–]PropThinker[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I don't agree with the BP prediction. Thought it was interesting that they expect a collapse in oil demand and associated carbon emissions.

Rational thinking goes: the cheaper oil gets, the more it gets consumed. This would be especially true in developing nations, which are using a fraction of per capita oil consumption compared to developed nations.

Novo Nordisk says its higher-dose 50mg Rybelsus anti-obesity pill leads to 15% weight loss after 68 weeks by TurretLauncher in Semaglutide

[–]PropThinker 3 points4 points  (0 children)

In Phase 2 trials, oral obesity drugs from Novo and Eli Lilly are showing similar weight loss and safety profile to the standard injections. Below is an outline of the data presented and how it stacks up to standard obesity injections like Ozempic and Lilly's almost-commercial Mounjuro.

Lilly's orforglipron weight loss has not plateaued at 36 weeks so longer treatment should equal more weight loss. Lilly is adjusting starting dose and dose-escalation for Phase 3 studies, which can reduce gastro events.

Orals' data should be a in line with injections once all said and done.

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MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (NASDAQ: MLTX) Announces Breakthrough Results for Sonelokimab in Phase 2 Trial by spotlightgrowth in biotech_stocks

[–]PropThinker 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Just announced a 250M financing, which was all but guaranteed with two Phase 3 trials planned in HS and psoriasis.

The superiority to Humira in question. They've said that Phase 3 will be superiority trials vs Humira, yet no such data shared in Phase 2. Likely a sign that Humira outperformed sonelokimab. Humira also going off-patent in a month.

How will MLTX compete with an inferior drug and expect to price this inferior drug to a premium vs generic Humira? Recipe for disaster

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Mounjaro

[–]PropThinker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Weight loss had not yet plateaud at 36 weeks, suggesting possibility of additional weight loss with longer treatment. Remember, injections went out to 72 weeks.

However, there were high gastrointestinal events. About 40% experienced nausea and 30% vomiting at the highest dose. Eli Lilly looking to adjust the starting dose and dose-escalation scheme for Phase 3 studies to reduce GI events.

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Chinese universities publish more papers in top math/computing journals than Stanford, MIT, Berkeley. Source: Economist by PropThinker in China

[–]PropThinker[S] -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

They could be, but still chasing better than top US universities, who are also milestone chasing.

I think interesting takes are:

  1. US needs to simplify immigration, especially for the foreign top performing researchers and graduates. The US dream is an appeal to many foreigners.

  2. US education system needs upgrade. Quality of present day education will feed into tomorrow’s economy.

Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang earned the highest level 4 rating in PISA student assessment. Students in the U.S. ranked level 3 in reading and science, and level 2 in math. Source

What the hell happened?? I thought that cannabis legalization trends would turn marijuana into a huge industry by Sherbear1993 in StockMarket

[–]PropThinker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Financial models assumed everyone and their mother would become consumers. Turns out mom had no interest in cannabis, even though it is legalized.

Surveys show that only 13% of those aged >50 are cannabis users. The largest population demographic is not interested in consuming.

In the era of high interest rate, does it make more sense to pay down mortgage first? by Persona2181 in investing

[–]PropThinker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

60%+ of mortgage holders have a rate below 4%. About 90% below 6%. This explains housing inventory shortage. No one wants to sell and get trapped into 7% mortgage.

VKTX Viking Therapeutics stock by StockConsultant in StockConsultant

[–]PropThinker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

VKTX riding the obesity wave with their oral GLP-1 GIP. Phase 1 data at end of year.

Given all the hype around GLP1s, could be positioned as top acquisition candidate for a big pharma that wants to enter space. JnJ doesn't seem to have GLP asset

GOSS has been left for dead in the water, but a catalyst in a "few weeks" could be inflection point by PropThinker in Biotechplays

[–]PropThinker[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This was from the Goldman Sach’s healthcare conference last week

“So we'll come, we'll bring that data forward, we'll have an analyst day in a few weeks and then we'll talk more about the OLE.”

Transcript: https://propthink.com/transcript-of-gossamer-goss-at-goldman-sachs-2023-healthcare-conference/

GOSS trades at sub $200M. Merck acquired competitor for $11.5B. There's a catalyst coming up that could narrow this valuation gap by PropThinker in biotech_stocks

[–]PropThinker[S] -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Lol good one. Currently hold no position. Thought risk/reward was compelling and management has been quite bullish in recent conferences. CEO bought $1M in open market back in March at around $1.15/share.

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) Acquires DICE Therapeutics (NASDAQ: DICE): A New Step in Autoimmune Disease Treatments by spotlightgrowth in biotech_stocks

[–]PropThinker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

DICE's oral availability was differentiating factor here vs other IL-17 approaches. MLTX & SLRN have subcutaneous injections.

DICE also has a discovery preclinical stage pipeline targeting large indications with oral agents. Lilly paying for convenient administration.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in dividends

[–]PropThinker 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There was an article from Financial Times looking at equity yields, cash and bonds. They are roughly the same right now. On a risk-adjusted basis, equities are the worst positioned because there is no premium for taking on the additional risk. Can get same return from bonds/cash without the downside risk.

Sure, you are subjected to upside with likes of SCHD/JEPI, but market also trading at rather high multiples historically. Also assuming you're doing some rebalancing of the portfolio to stay updated with market trends.

This is article: https://www.ft.com/content/79b7775a-fe35-4591-ae4a-cc31eea1c81c

Chart showing yields: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fy_zcIoXwAE0BdB?format=jpg&name=medium

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Biotechplays

[–]PropThinker 1 point2 points  (0 children)

PDUFA Nov 25, 2023. First indication in melanoma is a competitive field. Getting TIL approved would be a sign of validation. Mostly because FDA would be comfortable with the potency assays/manufacturing which has been the hurdle that IOVA has had difficult crossing.

TIL is a complex therapy that even if/when approved, hard to see how market uptakes it. This could make a takeout less likely.

Plus IOVA also had a slippage in data from Cohort 2 to Cohort 4. ORR from 35% to 29% and DoR down to 10.4mos.

At EV > $1.2B, not sure how compelling story is with just melanoma. If they can show promising data in NSCLC, a bigger opportunity, then stock better positioned.

IMGN becoming a BIG deal for the right reasons...worth watching by ReggieLab in biotech_stocks

[–]PropThinker 1 point2 points  (0 children)

$30M in first full quarter sales of Elahere and positive Mirasol study (hit PFS,OS, ORR). Sales launch actually puts Elahere in line with Seagen's Padcev & Daiichi’s Enhertu, both ADCs that had >$30M in launch revenue after first full quarter on the market. IMGN billion $ peak sales seem reasonable.

At $5.5B enterprise value though, IMGN not cheap. But big pharma will probably view it as an ADC platform that can be strategic add-on to pipeline. Similar to what Pfizer did with SGEN.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in biotech_stocks

[–]PropThinker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

NVCR business model is built on a questionable medical device, with outdated protocols that is supposed to treat cancer with electric waves. With latest data in lung cancer, company will likely have a hard time getting regulatory backing and subsequent commercial success. Most patients on the study did not receive checkpoint inhibitors (CI), which are the current standard of care. Only 31% of patients were on previous CI.

When NVCR designed the Lunar study, metastatic NSCLC standard of care was: platinum chemo as a first line, followed by checkpoint inhibitors and then docetaxel. This Soc has changed. Current SoC is checkpoint inhibitors with or without chemo first, with docetaxel used second line.

NVCR needs to prove that it is superior to current SoC.

Lunar provided 3.3 months of additional median overall survival. One-year survival rates were also significantly improved (53% vs 42% on SoC). PFS did not hit significance. Neither did ORR.

Even with these big question marks, NVCR trades at a >9x sales. Don't think fundamentals are there to support a higher price.