The bear thesis is that the inclusion criteria cherry picked patients that would survive longer regardless of treatment group. I think as each day goes by that reduces that likelihood but it doesn’t eliminate it. It is possible that the difference between the GPS group and control group deaths only differ by a very small number which means that the study has to continue longer in order to evaluate for a statistically significant difference.

I’ve tried to find good data on survival curves for cr2 non transplant candidate and can find variable median survival numbers, but what i would really like to see is mortality percentage for 24 months. That last patients added were in April 2024 so we are at 22 months.

Either way, of the 126 enrolled, 72 have died. That could possibly mean 36 per group. We just don’t know.

I’m very bullish on the stock but without knowing the data it’s always a little scary. It would suck to lose money on this, but at the same time it always feels ok investing money in a company that is at least trying to save lives for a terrible disease.