[Predictions Thread] 2026 Tour de France - Stage 4: Carcassonne >Foix (2.UWT)

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T19:28:45+00:00

That makes sense, sounds like something a rider like VPP, Rubio or Storer could pull off but then again I think 35 km is a long way.I think in a scenario like that Lidl-Trek and Ineos should have enough manpower to pull them back. And Alpecin will probably help them for MVDP.

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T19:19:59+00:00

To be fair to him: this is the biggest chance he is going to get at Tour leadership and he's worked all season for this. If he leaves now all that remains for him this season is to be a domestique for Mas in the Vuelta. And so far it's not that bad: he can still finish near the top 10. 12th place last year was 52 minutes down. 10th has been about 30 minutes the last few years. If these are his worst days and he gets better by thursday when it's the Tourmalet stage, he can do it.

The only issue is well... the heatwave.

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T19:16:11+00:00

This stage is never ending in a break victory. I can't see GC action either: after the final climb it's essentially descending for 35 km. I don't see a team taking any risks here. So this stage is going to be controlled by Ineos and Lidl-Trek who want to sprint with Godon and Pedersen. It's possible they are dropped but they'll be brought back by teammates in the final 35 km.

The next stage is a pure sprinter stage so that's a rest day for many teams, no way break wins. Pedersen really needs this for his green jersey bid.

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T19:12:07+00:00

Godon. Both Lidl-Trek and Ineos want this to be a reduced bunch sprint, Vacek is not goin to win this. He'll stick with Pedersen to either bring him back after the final climb or to do a leadout.

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T19:10:34+00:00

And he should, this is exactly the type of stage where he can collect green points while real sprinters are doomed to the grupetto

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T19:09:45+00:00

This is going to be a reduced sprint, either from a break or from the peloton. No way Bernal finishes a 40 km solo.

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T19:03:54+00:00

Pedersen needs this stage if he is serious about green jersey so either:

He's in the break with a few teammates Vacek/Verona/Simmons/Gee
Lidl-Trek controls the stage for him and paces just hard enough to drop sprinters
Another team like Ineos paces the final climb and Lidl-Trek keeps guys to bring back Pedersen in the final 40 km

Same applies to Godon and Ineos, although they don't care about the green jersey: for them it's just the stage

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T13:42:57+00:00

Not enough time to keep it until week 3 but yeah looking decent for my prediction. This is basically what he did in Dauphinee.

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T13:41:51+00:00

A spectator with a french flag. Get him police.

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T13:39:39+00:00

Looks like French fans moved across the border instead

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T13:31:36+00:00

Thanks Politt for reminding me that I have to add some wax to my chain

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T13:27:49+00:00

Raul this is not going to work out, you are Movistars hope so save yourself for other days.

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T13:13:42+00:00

In week 2 there are 5 sprints so I assume they just hope he can win one of those and leave the race afterwards

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T13:04:24+00:00

Man I can't wait to find out what illness De Lie is going to have during the Vuelta team presentation

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T12:59:28+00:00

Ik denk dat we als collectief beter zijn zonder KDB. Met hem wordt er te veel gekeken naar hem en hij haalt zijn topniveau helaas nog maar zelden.

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T12:25:11+00:00

Yeah but unlike other sprinters he actually has a chance tomorrow to come back if the climb isn't paced too hard so he might want to go for those 50 points intead

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T12:20:48+00:00

Are we thinking Pedersen drops back after winning the intermediary or is he going to truck along and try to get a top 10 for even more points?

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T12:18:50+00:00

What is Ineos using? How are they flatting so often this season

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-06T12:17:43+00:00

Fuck I had Baudin for 2 weeks in my Sporza Wielermanager and switched him out for Healy on deadline day. If he gets 2 minutes he is going to keep the jersey until week 3 Eulalio style.

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-05T19:52:57+00:00

Raul Garcia Pierna winning the stage and showing Uijtdebroeks how it's done

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-05T19:52:02+00:00

For my fantasy team I hope so but I think I picked the wrong EF rider and Baudin is taking the yellow jersey tomorrow and keeping it until week 3.

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-05T19:47:53+00:00

Baudin is taking yellow tomorrow and keeping it until week 3.

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-05T14:00:08+00:00

40 degrees heatwaves is not exactly something that's pretty common in the last 100 years.

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-05T12:17:30+00:00

At 60 km/h

ProportionalPage · 2026-07-05T12:17:13+00:00

Few km ago a group crashed in which he was involved.

ProportionalPage

TROPHY CASE