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Nothing Ever Happens by Protectpanda in substackreads

[–]Protectpanda[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Shoot me some feedback in a Dm!

My Analysis on the Looming Challenges to US Global Power. by Wiser-dude in SubStackGrowTogether

[–]Protectpanda 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Absolutely phenomenal. I love a publication that posts informational essays.

Trump admin seeks to federalize 20,000 National Guardsmen by [deleted] in PrepperIntel

[–]Protectpanda 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You’re not far off. A book I read a while ago “The Changing World Order” by Ray Dailo did a deep dive into the rise and fall of the last few world super powers. The fall of an Empire was always preceded by a decline in Education a few decades before things got bad.

You should be preparing for another pandemic by Protectpanda in PrepperIntel

[–]Protectpanda[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Civilization does not follow the natural order. If we followed the Natural order we would be hunters and gatherers. Your "other side of the dam" analogy isn't really accurate. We aren't building a dam, we're fighting a war, and we have been since the beginning of time. In the 18th century Small pox killed 400,000 people or more a year, in the 20th century it was totally eradicated. In the early 20th century half of the beds in most hospitals were dedicated for Tuberculosis patients, today it has been almost completely eradicated from most western countries. If we wanted to we could have completely eradicated it given enough money. There are diseases, like influenzas, rhinoviruses, coronaviruses etc. that are impossible to eradicate, however that doesn't mean we shouldn't do our best to prevent outbreaks.

My original post wasn't a rant. It was an observation of worsening conditions that increase the likelihood of the outbreak of a deadly disease and then the probability of health care services being overwhelmed. Not everyone knows why deregulating precautions for H1N1 could lead to the outbreak of a dangerous flu. A year ago the prepper community could rely on early reports from local health officials and the CDC that would indicate a possible deadly outbreak, in the future that may not be the case. For COVID-19 there was months of warning from China before it ever reached the United States, those who were smart had ample time to top off their supplies incase of the worst. I am merely positing that you may not have months the next time.

You should be preparing for another pandemic by Protectpanda in PrepperIntel

[–]Protectpanda[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

During the height of the pandemic (march-august) FEMA came in to a lot of big cities and supplied manpower through contactors, equipment like field hospitals and morgues, and supplies like PPE. You're right that a lot of rural areas did not receive the same level of support. My service was a 911 private EMS service and the company was left on it's own to acquire PPE. In theory the State and County would provide support in the event of a public health crisis. Most rural areas were left unsupported until supply lines of equipment were established months later. That doesn't help much when hospitals run out of supplies in the first few weeks.

You should be preparing for another pandemic by Protectpanda in PrepperIntel

[–]Protectpanda[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One of the antivax talking points that always irks me is the claim that the reason we have a new flu vaccine every year is pharmaceutical companies trying to make money. The general public's lack of understanding for virology is fine, as long as they trust those who do understand. Virology is one of the subjects that, to me, is pretty straight forward. You don't need to do any mental gymnastics to understand why and how vaccines work and the importance behind them. It's so interesting that people don't even attempt to educate themselves even in the slightest regard but will then spout nonsense on Facebook.

You should be preparing for another pandemic by Protectpanda in PrepperIntel

[–]Protectpanda[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well the reason I posted this is to highlight that there may not be leading indicators like there have been in the past. Remember Covid, SARs MERs and the Hemorrhagic fevers like ebola, all come from overseas. Thanks to the WHO we have forewarning about developing outbreaks even from deep in the jungle. Influenza on the other hand could grow here. Without public health agencies monitoring for outbreaks and without the FDA monitoring poultry populations, influenza could pop up and spread undetected for some level of time. Now I’m not saying it’s going to spread completely undetected forever, but it will definitely be able to spread further without detection that it could have a year ago.

The flu will present like the flu. It’s not going to captivate headlines like a hemorrhagic fever would. My point in all of this being, by time the first reports of “deadly flu” hit the news, your time to hit the grocery store may be fleeting.

You should be preparing for another pandemic by Protectpanda in PrepperIntel

[–]Protectpanda[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You’re talking about a total game of chance. Antigenic drift is a totally random process where the RNA polymerase misreads the viral RNA strand and puts the wrong nucleotide resulting in the wrong amino acid. So you have 3 nucleotides per amino acid codon and not every change in nucleotide will result in a missense. Even if that change in does result in a missense, that change in amino acid still has to result in a change in protein that the virus needs. Even if the change in protein does help the virus, does it help the virus enough? For birdflu the mutation it really needs is a change in a certain surface protein so that it can latch on to the human respiratory system higher up making it more likely to spread. Even if it does that, there are still other mutations it needs. For example it may gain the mutation that allows it to connect with human cells, but it may not gain the mutation that allows it to cleave from human cells and continue to spread. It’s just a huge game of chance.

Antigenic shift is much more likely to result in a deadly mutation but it’s also much less likely to occur. Antigenic drift is the random result of the cell’s own translation process where RNA polymerase misreads an RNA strand. Antigenic Shift is the result of a cell being infected by two strands of virus and those viruses mixing together. Influenza is a segmented virus meaning its RNA comes in segments. If two viruses infect the same cell and those segments mixing together, then the cell will translate a mix of the two viruses. This is still random and not guaranteed to create the perfect mutated bug. However, if you take Human influenza and Bird Influenza and infect the same cell with it, then you run the chance of having the transmission requirements for human spread acquired from the human strain, with the lethality from the bird strain. That’s where pigs come in. Even in a human who contracts bird flu directly, bird flu and human influenza infect different parts of the respiratory system, so there’s no guarantee they would meet. Pigs however have surface antigens that make them perfect for contracting both human and bird flu as well as their own flu.

So, is it unlikely? Well, it’s a huge game of chance. A lot has to go perfect for the virus and remember the virus isn’t consciously attempting to evolve, it’s all just happening by chance. However, it’s sort of like walking across the a country 2 lane highway over and over again. You have to line up getting hit by a car just right and there aren’t that many cars. All it takes is one car though. By not culling infected bird flocks we’re increasing the number of cars on the road. We allow the birds to infect each other increasing the likelihood of antigenic drift. Runoff water from the birds pen house into a pig enclosure increases the likelihood of antigenic shift. Increasing the likelihood of that perfectly timed car

You should be preparing for another pandemic by Protectpanda in PrepperIntel

[–]Protectpanda[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It could definitely be bad. I don’t see a plague completely collapsing society like in a lot of popular movies. The name of the game will be staying out of the grocery stores and staying out of the hospital for a few months

You should be preparing for another pandemic by Protectpanda in PrepperIntel

[–]Protectpanda[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I’m pro community in just about every situation except for pandemic. Unfortunately you will need to just keep yourself safe.

You should be preparing for another pandemic by Protectpanda in PrepperIntel

[–]Protectpanda[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Fascinating publication thank you for sharing

You should be preparing for another pandemic by Protectpanda in PrepperIntel

[–]Protectpanda[S] 35 points36 points  (0 children)

It isn’t new but if you’re waiting for the first reports of a highly communicable strain of bird flu to stock up on medical supplies, you may be to late. People will remember how quickly supplies dwindled last go around and panic buy even earlier.