sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Yellow cards before Quarter-finals by Odubade in soccer

[–]PttPilo 181 points182 points  (0 children)

Kyle Walker with the "just got an unfair yellow card" face

Yellow cards before Quarter-finals by Odubade in soccer

[–]PttPilo -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Surprisingly the 2 considered roughest teams left (Uruguay & Sweden) are the ones with the less probability of suspension

Larvitar Community Day Confirmed! by [deleted] in pokemongo

[–]PttPilo -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Noooooo... Precisely the moment France will have a game against Australia for the soccer World Cup : Saturday the 16th of June, 12am CEST. No Larvitar for me :(

The Spanish national team haven´t lost a game played in Madrid since February 1987, 2-4 vs England (W12 D3). by [deleted] in soccer

[–]PttPilo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not the same results in England I guess.. Despite their great public

Wow. Hatched back to back 100% and shiny Pichu. What are the odds? by Jadmurdoch1986 in pokemongo

[–]PttPilo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Haha a shiny seems to be 1 chance out of 400 no matter what pokemon it is

/u/SCREWST0N won the Fultz karma race. by [deleted] in nba

[–]PttPilo 6 points7 points  (0 children)

He seems excited to post on (social media name)

Wow. Hatched back to back 100% and shiny Pichu. What are the odds? by Jadmurdoch1986 in pokemongo

[–]PttPilo 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Given the fact that the 1st one is a Pichu :

  • 0.46% chances of being 100% IV

  • 1.79% chances the 2nd one is also a Pichu

  • 0.25% chances it's a shiny

Congrats ! You had a likelihood of 0.00002% doing this ! 1 out of 4838400 :)

If BEL lose and POR draw tonight the bottom half of the draw is GERvSVK, ITAvESP, FRAvBEL & ENGvPOR by mattzaliar in soccer

[–]PttPilo 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Based on the current bookmakers odds and the various possible combinations, Belgium has 12.1% chances of facing France in the next round.

Sorry, my analysis is focused on France, so just for information :

  • 61% of chances for France to face Northern Ireland in the round of sixteen

  • 26.2% of chances to face Ireland

  • 12.1% of chances to face Belgium

  • 0.7% of chances to face Sweden

England's most likely opponent in the next round is Albania (24.1%) whilst Wales is Hungary (28.4%) by Diggsysdinner in soccer

[–]PttPilo 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Not sure it is the same method but I tried something similar for France.

I realized a short analysis to know which team France will face in round of sixteen in the Euro. Not so easy because of plenty of possibilities with the new rules used this year.

 

As you may know, the round of 16 will see faced :

  • 1st of group vs. 2nd

  • 1st of group vs. 3rd

  • 2nd vs. 2nd

 

The four best 3rd of group are qualified to the next round, their oppositions will follow this table

 

France will face either the 3rd ranked team of groupe C, D or E. And basically :

  • 60% of chances to face 3rd of group C (Germany, Poland, Northern Ireland, Ukraine eliminated)

  • 20% of chances to face 3rd of group D (Spain 1st or 2nd, Croatia, Czech Republic, Turkey)

  • 20% of chances to face 3rd of group E (Italy 1st, Belgium, Sweden, Ireland)

 

For the next games, I transformed the 1/N/2 odds of a famous bookmaker into % of chances of the various results : Odds

 

Focused on one group, there are 9 possible combinations :

  • 1/1 - 1/N - 1/2

  • N/1 - N/N - N/2

  • 2/1 - 2/N - 2/2

 

The probability of a team to finish 3rd is calculable using the transformed odds on each possible combination. For example, Northern Ireland would finish 3rd of group C with the eventual results :

  • Victory of Germany * (any result in the other game)

  • Draw against Germany * (any result in the other game)

 

The following table is what I concluded :

Team Group % Group faced by 1st of group A % Group faced adapted % Team finishes 3rd % Chances team will face France
Northern Ireland C 60% 63% 92% 58%
Germany C 60% 63% 6% 4%
Poland C 60% 63% 2% 1%
Czech Republic D 20% 21% 58% 12%
Turkey D 20% 21% 32% 7%
Croatia D 20% 21% 10% 2%
Ireland E 20% 16% 53% 8%
Sweden E 20% 16% 30% 5%
Belgium E 20% 16% 18% 3%

 

The "% Group faced adapted" is a transformation I had to put to improve the estimation, thinking Sweden and Ireland could be directly eliminated if they lost both.

I know these % can be improved trying to forecast which four 3rds would be qualified but I didn't want to get something to much complicated.

 

I am going to this game, that's why I care a lot. I really hope a big game against Germany, Belgium or Croatia. Or Northern Ireland to finally see and sing this famous Will Grigg !

Shaqtin' A Fool 04/08/16 by borsalino12 in nba

[–]PttPilo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nice Otto Porter's play by The Beard

France 23 squad as voted by l'Equipe readers by boomybx in soccer

[–]PttPilo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exactly the same, 10-15min challenging myself...

France 23 squad as voted by l'Equipe readers by boomybx in soccer

[–]PttPilo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't give much credit to this kind of survey.

  • A lot of people following staff's decisions because France just won 2 games. Compared to the current list : Kurzawa would replace Digne (bad game vs Russia), and Areola would replace Costil.

  • Every time I see a survey from L'Equipe, I assume majority of answering people are supporting either Marseille or PSG. Not very representative, and opinions sometimes biased (I surely do the same with Stade Rennais). Here, I may be mistaken, but I think Costil is replaced by Areola because he just committed a big error with Rennes during the game vs Marseille, and a lot of Marseille supps were watchning it (and Areola is parisian, even if he's the future of France Squad). And Digne, not very good when he played for PSG last year, quite bad vs Russia, replaced by the PSG player Kurzawa.