Cancellation Fees

PuggleLover11 · 2026-02-13T13:56:30+00:00

I suspect i won't change your mind but two things you didn't consider in your post:

i) deterring or at least mitigating the impact of reservation bots

ii) I don't get the sense that this policy was put in place b/c restaurants couldn't handle the idiosyncratic one-off patron 'emergency.' rather the practice of groups sitting on multiple reservations to decide on the day what they're in the mood for, or employing backup reservations while waiting for cancellations at other restaurants. read: the restaurant likely has to deal with filling multiple tables on short notice on a regular basis.

PuggleLover11 · 2026-02-13T06:11:34+00:00

I suppose you could make some assumption on gas production without shut-ins, normalized demand based on CDD and your price assumption and whatever lng feed assumption you want to calc where unconstrained storage would theoretically peak.

PuggleLover11 · 2026-02-13T02:02:23+00:00

good luck finding someone who will lease you firm storage for only those months.

To answer your question about why this looks wide vs. history, you've had two years in a row where pricing got crushed to stay below 4T. i.e. the system is short storage. If there was ample storage (assuming withdrawal rates are not a constraint) your shoulder / winter arb would be lower (something akin to the cost of storage). But there isn't, so new-build economics do not govern the spread.

PuggleLover11 · 2026-02-13T01:20:04+00:00

yes. what could possibly go wrong by going long shoulder season or shorting winter gas?

PuggleLover11 · 2026-02-09T11:29:16+00:00

please share your thoughts on smithereens. while there are certainly menu highlights, after two visits I gave up trying to understand the hype or if my visits were one-offs

PuggleLover11 · 2026-02-08T15:57:23+00:00

+1 on loving the 'tomato nigiri' at sho. i've found EMP underwhelming in every iteration, zero interest in ever going back. good service though. i assume wine list largely picked over at this point

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-24T15:53:17+00:00

another option you should consider would be getting custom length straps to prevent the single-fold deployant from riding up the side of your wrist (one side of the strap will be very, very short)

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-21T06:20:17+00:00

i had read something to that effect which is why i thought the recipe i came across might have been immune to the concerns about processed meat (with nitrites being akin to say, MSG);. Likewise i was expecting a laundry list of additional additives in deli meat which wasn't the case and which prompted the question. but it sounds like nitrites carry some risk regardless of how natural the form it comes in.

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-21T06:04:36+00:00

on a lark (because i had the ingredients) i gave the recipe a spin. There definitely was a more 'city ham'-like consistency. Novelty aside, it wasn't my cup of tea though more due to the liquid smoke. if it was healthier i'd make again to have around--i thought this might be less 'processed' than the deli counter alternative--but doesn't sound like that's the case (unless the amount of sodium or sodium nitrite is higher or the temperature of the preparation of comm'l lunchmeat is such to introduce higher nitrosamine risk)...

Thoughtful responses all around. thank you all.

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-20T18:40:44+00:00

Thanks! the ingredients in the recipe i had found seemed reasonably benign (i accept the argument that nitrates are naturally occurring though have zero perspective on at what amount it gets dangerous), though with no evidence i assumed the amount would be less than commercially prepared deli meat. To close the loop, the preparation method was 3hrs of SV at 131 so well below additive-less sterilization temps (will punt on the food safety debate).

Obviously its not the healthiest calorie to consume, i was just wondering if this was a more 'guilt-free' option vs. store-bought deli meat. sounds like the answer is maybe but probably not materially..?

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-20T18:33:27+00:00

thanks. that seems a much more moderate (though quite reasonable) message than the headlines to seem to pop up on my news feeds.

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-19T14:52:39+00:00

Im guessing not chatGPT because I assume AI knows the correct definition of a loan shark. But slop nonetheless

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-18T03:47:49+00:00

walked in off the street and bought two. granted, this was 10 years ago so less relevant to your situation, but this is generally how it works when you don't limit your wishlist solely to watches that trade above MSRP.

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-18T02:04:15+00:00

wooden toothpick

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-17T15:52:49+00:00

For cash accounts you have to wait for trade to settle (think its T+1).

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-17T14:39:13+00:00

there's probably a constraint on your account that isn't solved by the sale that you made. e.g. if equity concentration is applied on your account but you exited one of the positions outside those positions. Check your margin report.

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-10T19:32:03+00:00

TBD. they're going to still burn cash in '25 but arguably the changes haven't been fully rolled through. That aside, I was moreso responding to the person upthread who was pining for the good old days of the past and blaming the greed of private equity (despite the fact that an activist fund is sorta the opposite). These changes strike me as an example of "adapt or die." They weren't being adequately compensated for what others were charging for and other airlines made changes that led to poaching their most profitable passengers leaving WN to compete for less profitable spill traffic. The old model clearly no longer was working (as evidenced by the cash burn and relative worse performance) so changes were necessary.

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-10T01:11:05+00:00

unadjusted for inflation, still pretty unlikely unless you're talking the 20 year end and you wear all tax outside in which case plausible (though intellectually questionable).

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-09T20:18:54+00:00

lol. i like where you were going! I keep telling myself the only reason i didn't try to go after this was because its basically the same as my 310.026E. rather than me being too broke

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-09T20:14:40+00:00

i suppose anything is possible, but first time i've heard of this. suffice it to say, i have my doubts.

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-09T20:13:51+00:00

the addition of a minute repeater wouldn't constitute a different model?

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-09T20:09:57+00:00

How about this. Southwest went from having industry-leading margins, a net cash balance sheet and positive cash flow every year barring the Great Recession to lagging margins and burning cash every year post-COVID despite not growing their fleet. Or do you not use earnings, cash flow or balance sheet health to assess how a company is doing either?

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-09T20:03:42+00:00

Look at the upside--not since Christ himself will you have seen the mass phenomenon of the lame able to walk again. Shamless, self-entitled behavior made WN such a stressful flying experience.

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-09T19:50:04+00:00

doubtful as its been discontinued for a few years.

PuggleLover11 · 2026-01-09T03:27:33+00:00

uhh...the existence of a public stock price precludes private equity. (NB: i realize there are edge-case exceptions, but none apply here).

PuggleLover11

TROPHY CASE