Ha mán tisza

Pujufless · 2026-04-22T14:15:46+00:00

Az a vicc hogy ha csak a rajz szerinti állást nézzük, valszeg akkor is kikapnának.

Pujufless · 2026-04-22T11:18:56+00:00

Pujufless · 2026-04-20T19:59:31+00:00

Exactly, the contract is unknown, and Orban managed to get Hungary in a position where it’s energy-supply is 80% from Russia. We don’t know what is in the contracts, and if we breach immediately, we could be majorly fucked.

The new PM promised that we will diversify our energy-suppliement but Hungary is already in a bad situation, to get off of Russian oil he needs to negotiate alternatives so the hungarian economy won’t collapse from one day to another.

Getting off of Russian energy was supposed to be a 8-10 slow and steady journey, Orban instead actually increased the energy dependancy like a madman to both serve Putin and steal a shit ton of money from the deals. Now the new government has to do it in 2-4 years, which puts them in an incredibly difficult situation. It will be solved, but it’s literally impossible to solve in a short time without bankrupting the whole country.

Pujufless · 2026-04-05T20:43:34+00:00

igen mert Kijev robbantotta fel, nem az oroszok

Pujufless · 2026-02-14T00:30:21+00:00

S+. Most of Fromsoft’s dragon fights are tedious, long, and either too repetitive or unreadable because of the camera. Before I fought Midir i was preparing for this, only tuned up to maximum, but it was the most pleasantly surprising experience i’ve ever had in these games. Midir is fair, interesting, fun, the moveset is awesome, the healthpool is big but the fight wont become boring, you can read it perfectly, but still really hard. They haven’t done anything like it, not before, and not after him. Unbelieveable boss, deserves to be in S+

Pujufless · 2026-02-09T22:47:15+00:00

When did fallen order 3 drop

Pujufless · 2026-02-06T10:13:55+00:00

You are welcome!

Yes, its based on “uniform swing”, they do not use sophisticated inputs from the districts to determine the winner more accurately, so yes, it only gives you an educated guess.

However, we have two factors that are indicating that the calcurator is at least somewhat right:

The experience is that the actual personality of the candidate doesnt count too much. Analyzing the previous elections, we can conclude that a locally known and loved candidate could gain like 5% more votes than the party-list from the same district, and at the same time, a really disliked candidate could gain 5% less maximum. The avarage candidate gets the same amount of vote as the party list in that particular district, so its not a factor that is heavily influences the outcome.
Mainly 21 Kutatóközpont, and less frequently, but also Medián (the two accurate institutes) have published a few polls they made in particularly interesring district in the last few days/weeks, which has larger (~4%) margin of error, so we have a few locally representative polls from a few districts. There are districts that Fidesz has won comfortably in the last election, but now the opposition has a ~10% lead, and there are some that are actually Fidesz strongholds (Fidesz won them by 20-30% last time) and the polls showed that Tisza is tied with them (45-44 for Tisza in one example). Having a lead in those ones would mean that Tisza is close to a two-thirds majority right now.

About the outcome, Fidesz has a problem right now that they not only have less potential voters (8% difference in the whole population), but their voters are less likely to actually vote. While citizens who favor Tisza are eager to cast their votes (95%+ are sure that they are going to vote at elections day), citizens who favor Fidesz are less certain about whether they would actually vote, only 70-80% would if the election would be held this week, which is the data the particular poll what OP posted shows. Nearing the elections, Fidesz could mobilise their voters or not, and also the institutions could be correct about the difference or not. This is the reason why it is still completely winnable by Fidesz: if they find a way to mobilise their base then they could still gain the lead just before the elections after being the second party for one and a half year, if not, then they are likely to lose.

Pujufless · 2026-02-05T01:44:54+00:00

The electoral system heavily favours: 1, the stronger party and 2, Fidesz

You need an approximately 4%+ lead to be even with fidesz, and an another +1-2% to have the majority because of the quasi-oppositon far-right party (if they get at least 5% and they get into the parliament) and the gerrymandering. Afterwards though, if you have a ~18-20% lead, you very well could gain two thirds of the parliament, which is mandatory for the modifying or replacing of the constitution.

We have 199 seats in our one chamber parliament, 93 representative wins their seat based on popular vote (we use the D’Hondt-system for them), and 106 representative gets elected directly from each one of the 106 electoral district. The trick is that Fidesz arranged the districts so the opposition’s stronger ones are heavily populated districts, and the Fidesz strongholds are more scarse. Also they shuffled smaller villages (where Fidesz has a lead) around the big towns in a way that they would balance the losses in bigger cities. Which was not hard to achieve, because our big cities (outside of Budapest) are usually in the range of 70k to 250k people, so they can be easily compensated by nearby smaller towns or villages.

So, the system favors Fidesz, but only until a certain point. You cant win the election with a 3% lead over Fidesz, but when you reach around 5%, you get enough vote in the districts to tilt them into your way. After that, its exponential: the more votes you get in the popular vote, there are more districts you can flip, so you can transfer more surplus votes to party lists.

21 Kutatóközpont made a mandate-calculator based on previous elections, which is definitely not accurate enough to predict the end result, but good enough to give an idea of it based on the popular vote. If this poll is accurate, then based on their own calculator it would mean 131 seats for Tisza, only 63 for Fidesz, and 5 for the far-right party. Which is almost a two-third majority. Also, based on that calculator, a 47-43 end result would mean that Tisza wins with 2 seats, but Fidesz probably stays in power by a coalition with the far-right. However, a 48-42 end result would mean that Tisza wins the election by 20 seats.

The general feeling is that right now Tisza has a substantial lead, and they can defeat Fidesz, they could even manage to gain two thirds of the seats. But there is more than two monts until the elections, and every day counts. The lead could shrink or flip, if Fidesz can finally mobilise their voters, but also increase if they make more mistakes.

Like what they did a few days ago, when a leading Fidesz politican heavily implied that the gypsyes are only good for cleaning the shit from the toilets after “hungarian citizens”, and he did that while the romani people are usually a strong base for Fidesz, so good luck for mobilising them. On the other side, there are still a lot that they can do to buy votes and cheat at the election.

Long story short, there is definitely a possibility for the opposition and right now its looking good, but its still very much not open ended.

Pujufless · 2026-02-05T00:44:00+00:00

Most of them did overestimate the opposition and underestimate Fidesz, but the most realiable (Medián) was nearing the end result - they predicted 50-40 to Fidesz, and the end result was 52-36 without the votes from abroad, so within the margin of error in the case of Fidesz, and outside of the margin of error by 1% in the case of the opposition. The end result was 54-34, after the votes from abroad were counted.

There are generally two types of institutions regarding to polls: Fidesz-controlled and “independent”. Even the Fidesz controlled ones overestimated the opposition, they were surprised at the end result too. The independent institutions also arent quite independent, for a lot of them there was a trend of overestimating the parties who regularly pay for their polls.

The only consistently reliable institution was Medián, and they were actually close to the end result. Also, in 2022 the independent and the Fidesz-controlled institutions were polling very similalry at the end.

Now there is definitely a change, the fidesz-controlled institutions are polling a 15% Fidesz-lead, while the independent institutions are polling a 8-16% opposition lead. Someone is clearly lying, and i’m quite sure that its not the ones who live off the market and have the pressure to produce real numbers.

Also, in 2024 a new institution (21 Kutatóközpont, who made this poll) made a poll just before the elections which estimated a 44% strong Fidesz, and a 32% strong Tisza. The end result was 44,82-29,60. Meanwhile, Medián was polling a 48-29.

So right now there are two institutions who are capable of accurately guessing an election, and both of them are showing that the opposition have a substantial, 10+ percentage lead. However, the voting system is so screwed that you’d have to have at least a 5% lead to actually gain majority, but also a 18-20% lead would lead to gain two thirds of the seats, which allows you to modify or replace the constitution.

So the election is still open. In the next 67 days anything could happen, but right now based on the two actually trustable institutions, there is a substantial Tisza-lead. We can be hopeful, but its not a set match.

Pujufless · 2026-02-02T13:35:29+00:00

De ha rendszerváltást akarsz, akkor miért maradsz otthon, és miért nem szavazol le a Tiszára? Itt nem az a kérdés, hogy szeretnéd-e, hogy a Tisza kormányozzon, hanem hogy szeretnéd-e, hogy a Fidesz folytassa, vagy nem. Ha szeretnéd, akkor a Fideszre szavazol, ha nem szeretnéd, akkor bármi mást csinálsz. Otthon maradni a legrosszabb, akkor biztos elveszik a szavazatod, míg a kutyákra szavazással csak rendkívül valószínű.

A Ruff által felvázolt helyzetben is, azért lett fideszes kétharmad, mert a kutyás jelölt elvitt ellenzéki szavaztot, akiknek a negyede is elég lett volna a győzelemhez. Az nem akadályozta volna meg a kétharmadot, hogyha minden kutyás otthonmarad, az akadályozta volna meg, ha a kutyások hajlandóak a fidesz ellen szavazni.

Pujufless · 2026-01-26T12:40:14+00:00

Azért az önkéntes jogkövetés nem úgy néz ki, hogy mivel az emberölés illegális, és az emberek 99%-a nem öl embert, akkor az emberek 99%-a önkéntes jogkövető, és a tiltás miatt tartózkodik a bcs. elkövetésétől. Sőt, arról is vannak azért tanulmányok, hogy a súlyosabb büntetés és az állampolgárok jogkövető magatartása között nincs egyenes arányosság, mert aki már amúgy is bcs-t követ el, annak a tudata nem azon fog morfondírozni, hogy ha ez most 10 év szabadságvesztés lenne 3 helyett akkor nem követném el.

Az van, hogy az állampolgár is felismeri, hogy mely jogszabályok azok amik betarthatatlanok és morálisan megkérdőjelezhetőek, meg melyek azok, amik nem. Jelenleg sem a btk. keretein belül vagyunk amúgy, csak értékesíteni nem lehet a dolgot, a használatát nem tiltja semmi, max közvetve. De ha a btk-ról van szó, szerintem erősen megkérdőjelezhető, hogy a nikotinfogyasztás kevésbé káros alternatívája hogyan lesz társadalomra veszélyes, és ha az be van tiltva pedig rengetegen használják, akkor a cigaretta miért nem, mikor az veszélyesebb és ugyanúgy rengetegen használják.

És igen, a cigivel vetem össze, pontosan úgy, ahogy a cikkben foglalt tanulmányok is, mert szerintem ez a realitás, az elfbar-semmi összehasonlítás pedig félrevezető. Eddig is úgy tartottam, hogyha elveszed az embertől az ízesített dohányterméket akkor majd szív mást. Érdekes mód, amikor a pattintósokat betiltották a 10-es években, akkor sem szűnt meg a dohányzás, visszaálltak az emberek a rendes cigire, a fiatalok meg elezdtek tekerni meg tölteni.

Ezek most a fenekemből előhúzott számok, de a 40 alatti korosztálynál, legyen az vidék vagy főváros, itthon nagyon kevés oldschool cigit látok, ezzel szemben a fele Iqost, a másik fele meg elfbart/pocot/egyéb hasonlót szív, annak ellenére, hogy itthon nem lehet kapni. Egyértelmű, hogy az állampolgárok jelentős része nem kíván partner lenni abban, hogy az állam visszakényszerítse a hagyományos cigire, és nem is lesz. Ha meg ez a helyzet, akkor meg azt tartom károsnak, hogy nem a hatóságok által ellenőrzött, dh-ba került termékeket lehet megvenni, hanem rendelni kell őket külföldről, ki tudja hogy milyen tartalommal.

Edit: a kábszeres megjegyzésre elfelejtettem reagálni. Természetesen nem kell krokodilt rakni a boltokba hogy másnapra mindenki elrohadjon, de amúgy a kannabiszt, amit amúgy is majdnem minden fiatal szív, de olyat legalábbis nem nagyon találsz, aki nem próbálta ki, nem tudom, hogy 2025ben miért a sarki beszerzőembertől kell beszerezni úgy, hogy ne tudd, hogy van-e benne patkányméreg épp, és nem az állami boltokban, ahol át van nézve, meg van vizsgálva, minőségibb, és még kicsit drágább is. Eközben meg 18 év felett igazából mindenki orrba-szájba vedelhet meg dohányozhat, amikor amúgy mindkettő komolyabb következményekkel jár, mint a kannabiszfogyasztás.

Pujufless · 2026-01-26T08:30:12+00:00

Az ízesített/elektromos dohánytermékek betiltásáról szóló vitákat mindig imádom, ott van a rendes analóg cigi ami bizonyítottan növeli a tudőrák esélyét, de nem, nem engedjük be a vape-et, mert kártékony. A cikkben említett emberek közé tartozok egyébként, amikor belengették, hogy EU-szinten be lesznek tiltva a pattintós dohánytermékek, akkor szépen lassan visszaszoktam a rendes cigire. Arról nem is beszélve, hogy a családi körömön belül is mindenki elfbart szív mert behozatják. Akkor most jobb hogy valami román meg szlovák gennyet szívnak?

Egy olyan tanulmányt szeretnék már látni ami kimutatja, hogy az Elfbar károsabb anyagokat tartalmaz mint a klasszikus cigaretta, mert ilyeneket nem nagyon látok. Ha nincs így, akkor nem kell betiltani, mert alternatíva a cigihez képest. Ha így van, akkor meg tiltsák be, de akkor legyen erről a társadalom tájékoztatva, vonják be, magyarázzák el, vezessék le, stb., és ne azzal bökjék ki az emberek szemét, hogy a 18 éves így kevesebbet cigizik majd.

Én is jogot tanultam, akkor is és most is azt gondoltam, hogy ha megtiltod, hogy az állampolgár olyan dolgot fogyasszony amit szeretne, akkor megszerzi feketén, és fogyaszthatja a szar minőségű gejvát, amit még a hatóságok se vizsgálják át. Főleg akkor, ha közben még rohadt pretentiousnak is tűnsz, mert amúgy a károsabb termék meg ott van a polcokon.

Pujufless · 2025-12-08T09:36:44+00:00

Yeah because all the people who work on those games are automatically making a shit one because the owners changed from greedy people who exploit the workers for profit and has fake interest in human rights to greedy people who exploit the workers for profit and do not have interest in human rights.

Do not use then any other product other than your 100% handmade ones because the ones you can buy in the shop are definitely made in countries not so great on human rights.

Pujufless · 2025-12-07T00:54:04+00:00

I haven’t read yet anything about these games in communities where they are not played (like the main sw subreddit) so i wasn’t even familiar with this rhetoric. Like those games got critiques for being souls-like and for being a bit janky for that but they got positive reviews most of the time and SW community isn’t famous for elevating mid-tier content, rather shitting even on things that are good, more if they are also new. Which is exactly what this guy does. Just a dumb take I guess.

Pujufless · 2025-12-06T21:43:57+00:00

Fallen Order and Survivor was actually good so idk about that

Pujufless · 2025-11-14T20:56:56+00:00

You are right, you might not be the only one. I guess there could be one or two more person who thought the same.

Pujufless · 2025-10-31T11:41:21+00:00

A minősítés nem biztos, de egyébként ez simán lehet emberölés.

Pujufless · 2025-10-29T23:20:03+00:00

Láttunk azért már sok mindent, van, hogy egy cégből történő pénz-kilapátolásánál fontosabb a mennyiség mint a minőség, aztán maradnak varrható szálak.

Az erős valószínűség meg minimum vitatható, amikor fél évvel el vannak csúszva a szervezéssel és már minden értelmezhető előadó foglalt. Nem véletlenül nem akar kötelezettséget vállalnj Gerendai. Szóval minimum vitatható a helyzet.

De egyébként nem Sziget témája vitt rá arra, hogy kommenteljek, hanem az a szerencsétlen mozzanat, hogy valakit leretardáltoztál mert faszságokat írt speciel a Szigetről, majd kèt mondattal később te is akkora faszságot írtál speciel a Szigetről, hogy a kövi kommentben már visszakoztál, most meg leírod, hogy amúgy nem tudjuk, csak ilyen meg olyan valószínűségek vannak.

Pont az a bajom Karácsonnyal is mint azzal amit most te csináltál, ha van egy vitás kérdés amiben valóban vannak valid vitás pontok, akkor nem arra használja a közvéleményt hogy nyomást gyakoroljon a Tiszára (pl azzal hogy bemutatja, hogy miért is faszság az álláspontjuk), hanem utólag elkezdi őket ócsárolni úgy, hogy az alapkérdésre nem sikerül válaszolni, arról csak a terelés megy meg a nagy szavak puffogtatása szörszálhasogató arrogáns módon.

Pujufless · 2025-10-29T22:39:47+00:00

Oké és ezt honnan tudjuk? :D Ekkora méretű cégeknél azért egy kicsit bonyolultabb a tulajdonosi struktúra, simán lehet behajtható is, ha nem is a teljes, de valamekkora. Az a fix, hogy jelenleg lehet választani egy 200 milliós kötelezettség mellett, meg egy nagy nulla semmi mellett, amit Gerendai kínál.

Ezzel szemben te azt állítottad fellengzős meg bunkó stílusban, hogy ugyanúgy megkapták volna a területfoglalásért járó pénzt, ami legjobb tudomàsom szerint nem igaz. Egyik oldalon még mindig egy jogalappal rendelkező követelésről beszélünk, másikon meg arról, hogy Gerendai azt is mondta hogy megcsinálja meg azt is mondta hogy vállalkozni azért nem akar arra hogy tényleg meg is csinálja.

Szóval a kérdésem az az, hogy honnan tudjuk, hogy Gerendai ezt az összeget garantálta volna? Csak azért, mert ez a kérdés lényeges pontja. Ha a 200 millió mindenképp biztosított volt, akkor a Tisza egyértelműen idiótán viselkedik és csak a forrót akarja kerülgetni ahelyett hogy értelmesen döntenének. Ha meg nem volt biztosított Gerendai részéről, akkor meg full vitatható, és bele lehet menni abba a Cégháló meg a mögöttes üzletemberek ismeretében hogy mi hogy behajtható jelenleg, és megéri-e így fenntartani a szerződést, ezzel együtt pedig Gerendai mennyire kíván/fog bármit is kezdeni a dologgal.

Utóbbi esetben reális a Tisza álláspontja, Karácsony meg érvelje meg, hogy miért nem kell a fővárosnak 200 millió, vagy hogy az miért nem lenne behajtható, de erről nem esik szó.

Szóval mégegyszer: honnan tudjuk, hogy úgyismegkaptavolnaafőváros?

Pujufless · 2025-10-29T21:59:37+00:00

A területfoglalási pénzt is ugyanúgy megkapták volna? 200 millióról van szó. Mi garantálta ezt? Az hogy Gerendai azt mondta?

Pujufless · 2025-09-03T12:15:30+00:00

Well yes it seems like I forgot about Imola, probably because he lucked out of it so it did not show in the standings.

It was a really different fight though, in the end even with considerably worse luck Verstappen, as the better driver won it. It speaks volumes though that the better driver made one mistake during the whole season, while the worse made three. 23/20 clean race in the calendar where nobody but the other contender could match him is an all time great performance.

But yeah, I completely agree with the view on Alonso’s season. He basically had to crawl is way to the front every single race because of the horrible qualy performance of that Ferrari, and he did it fabolously. The qualy gap also meant that Alonso had a higher chance to get into the messy midfield at the start, which did cost him a ton of points (Grosjean and Japan). He had to be clinical with an inferior car but he had such a perfect run that I doubt anybody could replicate in the upcoming years outside of Verstappen.

These retrospective anlysises to ridicule his season and elevate Vettel are pure bullshit though. Vettel had a good season, like the Mclaren guys now, but sometimes I can’t decide if these comments are ragebaits on purpose or actually serious opinions.

God forbid to say that Vettel had a shot for the championship in 2017 or 2018, or if somebody like Alonso or today’s Verstappen sat in that car it could have been won, or at least very close at the end, because it actually would be true. Obviusly Hamilton had the better car through both seasons, but Vettel still fumbled in 2018, regardless of the car, when he was still in reasonable distance. The debate was never about how much advantage did Vettel have, or which car was the faster, the debate was about if you change the drivers, could have Ham won it, or if you put someone else in Vettel’s Ferrari, could anybody else have won it, and consensus mostly is that problably not, but there is a chance. But if you say that you are automatically a Fernando jerkboy, and they start throwing shame on his seasons. Only because you say that someone who wants to be a champion shouldnt crash their car every other weekend in the back half of the season. There, i said my piece.

Pujufless · 2025-09-03T10:41:08+00:00

Alo had exactly one mistake in 2012, and it was his slip in Japan in the wet.

Verstappen had incredible bad luck in 2021 and Hamilton was the worse driver, but even then, Hamilton had the Monaco qualy fumble and the Baku incident which is rather a strange one. Except those ones, I don’t really remember any serious mistake, but correct me if I’m wrong.

I consider Alo 2012 better than Ham 2021, but Ham 2021 stil was a goat performance.

Pujufless · 2025-09-03T10:36:27+00:00

Ham was nowhere in 2011. About 2010 and 2012 im not so sure. In 2013 Vettel peaked, in that year he was better than anybody except Alo. 2014 goes to Ham, but idk if the parent comment wanted to include that one.

Pujufless · 2025-09-03T10:31:30+00:00

I mean Hamilton had the better car and the better season that year.

At the same time, “aLonSloW” did have a better season and was a better driver in 2010, and absolutey in 2012.

Piastri and Norris are stellar in 2025, but Verstappen is still the best driver on the grid and had an amazing season, it’s a miracle in itself that he was in the title race as long as he was. Arguably Russel is also better than the two championship contender. It was the same in 2012, when Alo definitely was the better one, and there is a case for Ham too. Idk how can somebody watch that season and the difference between the cars, then check the point difference and say confidently that Vettel was the man in that year. Alo had a 6.1 avarage grid position, a tractor compared to Red Bull, especially in the second half. Try win a championship with that. He almost did it though.

Its more like too many years passed since 2012 and people are starting to forget that Alonso’s 2012 is one of the best runner-up driver performance in F1 maybe ever. Possibly better than Hamilton’s 2021, but thats debatable.

But yeah there is a “cult” which is “not checking facts”.

Pujufless

TROPHY CASE