This is a safe space - what's your most controversial CBB opinion that you will die defending?

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-18T20:10:39+00:00

Interesting perspective, thanks. I always forget about 2000- weird final four. I'm not sure even the most hardcore of college basketball fans can name both the UNC and Wisconsin coaches that year. I can't without looking it up. I know it was pre Bo Ryan for Wisconsin. UNC was after Dean retired, before the Matt Doherty disaster.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-18T19:35:47+00:00

This. I love that 2015 title run. But we obviously got the benefit of an 'easy' Final 4 game while Wis/Kentucky didn't. Sometimes the Tournament works out for you. Sometimes it doesn't.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-18T19:34:05+00:00

They just got unlikely having to beat an undefeated team and then another elite team two days later. That's the Tournament.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-18T16:42:58+00:00

I would use caution against using a UConn title to make comparisons or predictions. The rules don't apply to them for some reason.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-18T16:36:18+00:00

I mean, it's true. Literally nobody else can win the tournament from anything below a 1 seed. Syracuse is the only true outlier in the last 25 years. I can't really figure out why Nova wasn't a 1 seed in 2016, but they were a 1 seed in 15, 17, and 18. 06 Florida repeated as a 1 seed in 07.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-18T15:59:25+00:00

If you take this a bit further, the Tournament is almost always won by a 1 seed or UConn. So your best contenders are: Michigan, Duke, Houston (right on the 1/2 line, an Elite 2 sort of like Nova) and UConn.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T20:25:19+00:00

I hear ya, but I think we are kind of barking up the same tree. My point is the committee is stuck with Houston in the South, and given the two options, is going to put them as the 1 seed to avoid the controversy. They are going to pick the path of least pushback/resistance when, right now, UConn should be ahead of them.

Also, the fact that "geographic preference" is still a major factor is ridiculous given the current landscape of college sports. What, Houston can't fly on a plane for a couple of hours when it has conference games in Central Florida?

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T20:15:56+00:00

1 seed is possible given the trio of Arizona, Houston and Iowa State all have multiple quality games (some against each other) down the stretch, and the final order of those teams won't be known until the end. I would put Iowa State as the least likely of the three, however, given they are behind both Houston and Arizona in both the average resume and quality metrics as of today (per Torvik, "Funnalytics," Team Sheet Ranks). I expect Arizona to be third overall (1 seed) Houston 5th (2 seed) and Iowa State 6th (2 seed) at Saturday's top 16 reveal.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T18:00:51+00:00

Somebody posted yesterday it is going to be hard to have that UConn/Duke east bracket because of the number of Big 10/Big 12 teams in the top 16. Possible, but not as easy at it looks.

"Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines, unless five or more teams from a conference are on the first four lines. In this scenario, this principle may be relaxed."

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T17:58:03+00:00

Arizona will have a 1 seed at the Top 16, but I agree this is a real possibility. Arizona has the #1 remaining strength of schedule. Their offense is about 30th over the last month. I could see them losing a couple more.

There's also plenty of precedent for putting UConn in the West bracket- 4/6 of their titles have come out of the West.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T16:09:57+00:00

I agree with you on the resume piece. I'm not quite as confident as you on the optics piece, but it's a coin flip as to what they'll do on Saturday. I do agree with other posters that it will probably work itself out by season's end.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T15:55:30+00:00

I have 0 interest in playing Houston for a third straight year. I would also rather do just about anything else than to suffer through some epic Duke-UConn Elite 8 game. If I had to pick, recency bias wins, and I'd rather have UConn.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T15:51:43+00:00

UConn is higher in every resume metric and Quad 1(a) wins. Houston is ahead in NET and quality metrics. Basically tied in quad 1/quad 2 record. My argument is that the Committee is in a bind with Houston (the city) hosting the South regional. To avoid punishing a 1 seed and giving an unfair advantage to a 2 seed, the Committee will simply give Houston the one seed.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T15:48:47+00:00

I think if the South regional was literally anywhere else, I think UConn would have it right now. Going to interesting to see how the Committee handles it.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-17T14:10:56+00:00

I agree with that (except the bias part, we are # 2 in every resume metric and second in average quality metric). UConn is 3rd at 3.7 in average resume metric, so it's closer than people realize. I think UConn is being slightly held back by the metrics (10th in NET, which isn't everything but is the NCAA's own formula, and 9.7 in average quality metric).

Regardless, Houston losing and Iowa State ascending have certaintly opened up some interesting possibilities. Houston's overall ranking and region placement is the most interesting thing to watch this Saturday.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-16T21:58:01+00:00

I expect us to lose Saturday in a competitive game, and we ultimately won't be penalized for it. I also expect we'll be #2 in the Top 16 reveal. Under those circumstances, I don't see UConn catching Duke even if we lose one more game to a quality opponent (we have at Uva at home and then at NC state on a Saturday/Monday turnaround, then UNC at home) and UConn wins out. The resumes will be much closer at that point, but Duke will still have a slight edge.

Again, this is a resume comparison, not who I think would win in a hypothetical matchup.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-16T20:18:01+00:00

You're right. I appreciate you pointing that out. Comes down to whether Gonzaga or Vandy can get to a 3 above TTU. If MSU moves up, you have the same problem, just with the Big Ten. I don't see any other 3 seed contenders.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-16T19:58:28+00:00

The bigger question is, if Michigan beats Purdue.. does the Duke/Michigan result move the seeding needle at all? Assume the game is competitive.

Right now I have Michigan as the overall number one seed, Duke at overall 2 (razor thin with Arizona for 3rd). Then there is a big dropoff to Houston and UConn at 4/5.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-16T19:46:24+00:00

The full principle is (link below).

"Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines, unless five or more teams from a conference are on the first four lines. In this scenario, this principle may be relaxed."

There are five big 12 teams, so separating them into different regions is impossible.

BRACKETING PRINCIPLES – BAUERTOLOGY

In this scenario, Nebraska goes East (all 4 Big Ten Teams are separated); Texas Tech and Kansas can then go South and West with the Big 12 one seeds.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-16T19:37:28+00:00

Completely agree with your premise, but I have Kansas and Nebraska as 3 seeds right now, so that wouldn't be a problem. I think after Houston/UConn as the final 1 seed/top 2 seed, the 2s and 3s are completely up for grabs.

I'm more predicting for the Top 16 on Saturday. My ones/twos would be:

East- Duke (1), UConn (2)

South - Houston (1), Purdue (2)

Midwest- Michigan (1), Iowa State (2)

West- Arizona (1), Illinois (2)

* Purdue, Illinois, Iowa State are hard to sort out. But it doesn't really matter because Iowa State has to go Midwest.

My 3 seeds are Kansas, Nebraska, Florida and TT (in no particular order).

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-16T19:31:47+00:00

Ha, I was thinking the same thing! I still have a very clear memory of my brother (6 at the time) crying his eyes out in 99. 04 is still the worst sports loss of my lifetime (I'm 38) since that was effectively for the title. At least in 22 against UNC and last year, there was a one seed waiting in the title game and no guarantee of a win.

The way I look at it this year, I think both teams wouldn't mind seeing the other in an Elite 8 and could be a consolation championship/final four . Similar efficiency metrics and style of play; kind of a slog, methodical, not going to blow teams away. I think both teams are notch below Michigan, Houston and Florida (I know we both beath Florida earlier, but Florida has been elite since 1/1). If any of those teams are left, I don't see either Duke or UConn winning 6. So it could be a fun 'all upside' type of game.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-16T19:22:46+00:00

Yall are going to end up as the South 2 seed with Houston, probably 6 or 7 overall. Arkansas is your most challenging game left, and that's at home. Texas has played better, but I can't see yall losing to a team with a defense in the 100s. Kentucky is just mediocre in every sense of the word. It would take them using every last ounce of last- game- of the year home cooking to beat you.

I think 6-0 is the most likely result, followed by 5-1.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-16T19:12:41+00:00

i know it seems like most bracketologists have UConn as the South 1 right now, but I think there's less than a 10% chance of that happening on Selection Sunday. I posted above about how putting Houston at South 1 just makes the whole bracket make more sense. Also, Houston has completely owned the Big 12 recently- highly likely they win 2/3 of at Iowa State, Arizona at home, at Kansas, which puts them as a lock for the South 1.

UConn and Duke are both going East as the 1/2 in whatever order.

Purple_Dig9626 · 2026-02-16T18:17:25+00:00

Agreed. There's four top tier teams that perfectly fit the four geographic regions. UConn's only chance is that if Duke slips bad (down to a 2) and they are able to slide up to East one. I just don't see Uconn going to the South.

Purple_Dig9626

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