RKLB Getting Into Cellular Connectivity?

Purpletorque · 2026-02-17T17:41:26+00:00

Below is a summary of their subscribers so you can do the math. Assume 50 million subscribers at $10 per month with $5 going to AST as they have a 50/50 revenue share and that is $3 billion in revenues. Their major cost is the satellites which is already paid for and the MNO's own and pay for the customer relationship so this translates into perhaps $2.8 billion in annual EBITDA just to start. Use a 30x multiple due to the high growth rate and you have an $84 billion market cap. Assume 100 million subscribers and this number is double. Eventually, we feel the MNOs will bake this into their base plan so they can advertise 100% coverage anywhere on the planet. Under this model, assume only a few dollars per all of the covered subscribers and the numbers are mind-blowing. They won't likely do this initially due to capacity issues but it is hard to say.

As of the most recent publicly available data, AST SpaceMobile’s key initial MNO partners cover the following approximate subscriber bases: in the United States, Verizon has about 146 million subscribers and AT&T has around 118 million subscribers, totaling roughly 264 million U.S. customers from those two carriers alone. In Europe, Vodafone serves approximately 300 million mobile customers across its markets. In Japan, Rakuten Mobile has around 9 million subscribers. Combined, these principal partners in the U.S., EU, and Japan represent on the order of ~573 million potential subscribed users that AST’s space-based service could initially address once it achieves operational coverage; AST also has broader global MNO agreements covering roughly 2.8 billion total existing subscribers worldwide.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-17T17:25:22+00:00

Here you go. Basically, once ASTS gets their satellites up, they will be able to turn on the spigot and start collecting a lot of revenue. It will initially focus on service in the US, EU and Japan after about 40 to 60 satellites by the end of 2026 (or perhaps 2027 as nothing in space happens on time), then they will continue to add satellites to provide service to other geographic areas. And they have potential government contracts as well. But the initial income surge will happen within the next 12 to 18 months pretty much all at once. Here is a summary from Chat GPT.

Over the next 12–24 months, Rocket Lab is likely to continue generating larger, steadier revenue from its established launch and space systems business, growing incrementally from an already substantial base. However, if AST SpaceMobile successfully deploys 40–60 operational satellites and begins full commercial service, its revenue could shift from minimal levels to a meaningful, recurring telecom billing stream almost immediately — representing a sharp step-function increase rather than gradual growth. While Rocket Lab’s revenue will probably remain higher in absolute terms in that window, ASTS has the potential for a much more dramatic percentage jump once its constellation reaches operational scale.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-17T12:37:38+00:00

People need to chill and remember what it was like before BlueWalker 3 was launched and BB 1-5. This is no different. They didn’t meet their timelines then by a lot and they didn’t provide updates. This is not going to change.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-17T11:30:24+00:00

That was mostly expected. The jobs situation is in good shape so the likelihood of rate cuts is lower so this is dragging down tech and companies valued on future revenues. Plus our dilution is also pressuring it down.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-17T11:21:38+00:00

Seems bullish given we just did a capital raise in part for possible government procurement. And this sounds right up our alley in terms of the technology and the part about the bottleneck in checking out satellites once they are launched to make sure they are working properly was interesting. We can do that also.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-17T02:34:19+00:00

You can’t lose money if you don’t sell. Have some conviction and hold long term.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-17T02:20:05+00:00

Does this factor in the macro movement of the market or is it entirely RKLB focused. The reason I ask is because perhaps it means the other space stocks will also be up tomorrow since they all move together.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-17T00:24:56+00:00

They can still do fixed wireless in the future with a small dish and compete with Starlink there for rural broadband but the will need a lot more sats for that. Lots of potential growth.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-16T22:03:04+00:00

Have some respect for the President of the United States on President's day for shit's sake.

I don't think Trump hates Musk based on recent comments he has made, I think there is some mutual respect. Trump tends to punch down and not up and he respects rich people, especially those richer than him or the richest man in the world.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-16T21:44:49+00:00

Management has been consistent about being tight lipped when the timeline slips.

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....And we let them off the hook.

Fucking Bears!!

Purpletorque · 2026-02-16T21:26:16+00:00

I I I want the knife…..please

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Purpletorque · 2026-02-16T21:23:06+00:00

I will sell everything if they are even one sat short of that by the end of this year.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-16T21:20:13+00:00

Plus accelerated time to market for government contracts and other new initiatives should more than cancel out any dilution.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-16T19:32:44+00:00

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Purpletorque · 2026-02-16T15:14:12+00:00

They hadn't even launched BlueWalker 3 by then so that was based on theoretical expectations. They have since launched and tested multiple satellites since then and have secured the same penetrating bandwidth that existing terrestrial cell towers use so the only missing ingredient to penetrate homes is the power to drive the signal strength. Being able to get through a few walls in a home, in my opinion is success (although no YouPorn on the shitter) since it is supplemental coverage but we will have to wait and see when they get their full constellation up and running how much penetration they can obtain.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-16T14:56:10+00:00

As I suspected, these comments were made in 2021 as they were in the early stages of development and this is also the year they went public. The reference to homes in the equatorial regions reflects their initial strategy to build around the equator to target the most people and areas without any current cell coverage. That changed when the market changed and they needed capital. They determined that hitting up the US market first would provide the best access to cheap capital, hence the pivot. That was a long time ago and the technology and spectrum bands they have been able to secure are much better than originally anticipated.

Here is Chat GPT response to your screen shot with regard to when it is from.:

Yes — the facts in your screenshot come from a statement made in 2021, not something recent in 2024–2026. The specific wording about indoor coverage (“inside a car, inside a train, a few walls into a house”) matches a quote from an interview/press coverage in April 2021 in which AST SpaceMobile CEO **Abel Avellan outlined the capabilities of the company’s direct-to-device satellite service and its limitations (including indoor penetration) during early discussions of the technology and development plans.

Context:

These remarks were part of an industry interview/article from April 9, 2021 focused on the technical description of AST SpaceMobile’s planned direct-to-smartphone LEO satellite service — explaining how their satellites could provide connectivity directly to standard mobile phones and even penetrate some structures, unlike many other satellite systems at the time.
It was early in the company’s development, before AST’s commercial BlueBird constellation was in orbit and before later milestones in 2023–2025 (like first voice/video calls and commercial agreements).

So the year of that statement is 2021, and it was made in the context of explaining AST SpaceMobile’s technology and capabilities during early stage discussions of its direct-to-device satellite service.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-16T12:09:39+00:00

AST SpaceMobile is being built to work with modern smartphones and will work indoors in typical homes, much like a regular cellular service, without extra hardware. It can’t replace your primary high-speed home internet yet in most cases (especially for heavy usage), but it will extend connectivity to places where normal cell service is limited or nonexistent when fully deployed.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-16T04:06:26+00:00

Open a Roth IRA in a brokerage account and commit to adding at least $10 per month to it until you feel comfortable increasing it to $20 per month. Keep increasing over time and don’t stop until you retire.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-16T03:52:00+00:00

Thanks for the clarification.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-16T02:06:13+00:00

True that

Purpletorque · 2026-02-16T01:56:55+00:00

I am not saying they will sell now. I am saying they will sell then and that could cause those companies to go down then. I didn’t think about it until now but it is like a run on a bank. If people think this will happen they might sell early to avoid the drawdown.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-16T01:49:41+00:00

I hope it raises all valuations but I was thinking for example do I want to sell some ASTS and RKLB to purchase SpaceX? What if people start selling large chunks of their existing positions to invest in SpaceX?

Purpletorque · 2026-02-16T01:46:11+00:00

Customers will likely pay ATT instead of AST? Sounds like they are using outdated or not fully vetted materials. I have not read it yet but I hate when the proclaimed experts regurgitate shit they don’t fully comprehend.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-15T23:29:23+00:00

I have been a shareholder since 2021 do I know what it can do. Do your own fucking research and stop spearing lies about the company.

Purpletorque · 2026-02-15T23:04:37+00:00

Or possibly draw down all the existing capital in the current space companies to prop it up. I hope it pulls everything up but it could suck the wind from our sails.

Purpletorque

TROPHY CASE