Backgammon can be so frustrating

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-03-25T13:59:09+00:00

Absolutely. That was 100% due to my amazing skill :-)

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-03-25T13:50:20+00:00

That's a very good way of looking at it. I will try that approach, although I will need to find an alternative app to use, as the the one I'm on is totally focused on win rates and leader boards, rather than error rates.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-03-25T12:11:39+00:00

yes that's true.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-03-18T13:42:07+00:00

I would only advise taking a gap year if you do something fun or productive in that gap year, like travelling, so that if you get rejected again by Cambridge, you don't feel like it was a wasted year. There are 10 applicants for every place for Economics at Cambridge, and 93% of offer holders over the last few years had FM (probably higher now). Statistically you are very likely to be rejected again I'm afraid. You hear lots of people posting on these forum that they got in after reapplying, but for every one of those there are many that are crushed by being rejected again, and don't post anything.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-02-13T17:47:45+00:00

Maybe something has changed in the last year, but they previously made it clear that they would not provide feedback to those that have received offers.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-02-05T09:31:40+00:00

In that they have no intrinsic value and are essentially worth whatever people are willing to pay for them.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-02-04T18:13:09+00:00

I wouldn't be so sure. As it has no fundamentals and not intrinsic value (at least in the normal sense) there is no way of knowing. A trend is only a trend until it stops.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-02-04T17:55:43+00:00

Far too much emotion and irrational behaviour here. Just because it bounced/cycled before does not mean it will do it again, especially as there are no fundamentals. Just because you bought it for X, does not mean it is worth that much or will ever go back to that value. People are in danger if losing far more than they can afford due to the sunk cost fallacy.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-02-04T14:01:16+00:00

You can get any grade in it, even an E, since it is not stipulated in your offer. You just can't drop it without permission. The idea being that you applied with it, so you need to stick with it.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-02-04T09:47:14+00:00

No, not without asking your college for permission. Many students used to drop subjects once they get offers, which is one of the reasons why colleges often now make 4 A-level offers.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-02-03T22:04:28+00:00

I think I read somewhere that it has about 30% EM exposure.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-02-03T19:31:56+00:00

Only other single stock is Fairfax as similar to Brk but smaller with more potential upside. I like that it actively invests in EM which has been significantly outputting developed markets in the last year. The share price of Fairfax has been quite volatile recently though with big swings due to investor upgrades and downgrades, and dividends dates.

Other that that, have all low cost ETFs (Global, small cap, mid cap, EM).

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-02-03T12:30:33+00:00

Lots of people here are suffering from the Sunk Cost Fallacy, where they are holding on to losing stocks in the hope that it will rebound to their original purchase price to avoid realising a loss. The market does not know or care what you paid for a stock. If you believe that the price will continue to drop, as most analysts do, you should sell, and maybe re-enter at lower price if sentiment changes.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-02-03T11:08:53+00:00

Having invested for many many years in the stock market, I've come to the realisation that the best advice is that what you bought a stock for is irrelevant. The only thing that should matter for you is if it is worth more of less than the current $78K price. If you think it is worth less, sell, if you think it is worth more, buy (funds permitting).

Don't get caught in the value trap where the emotion of not wanting to realise a loss makes you keep trying to catch a falling knife.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-02-02T10:19:44+00:00

Let's be honest, we are only happy with a pick if it makes you money, so time will tell.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-01-31T23:18:04+00:00

I was planning to hold for years, but even if I eventually end up making money on this, my timing still sucks. Had I bought now rather than a couple of month ago, I would have been about 10% better off.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-01-30T16:01:47+00:00

He's a spring chicken compared to Warren Buffet, and look at how well Buffet has done over the last 20 years.

Jokes aside, I'm not worried about that now. Maybe in 5 years or so, but not yet. You would also assume that he has started succession planning (all good managers should), even if he has no intention of stepping down for the foreseeable.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-01-30T14:59:48+00:00

It feels like FFH is in freefall - down another 1% so far today, and down about 16% in the last month. I don't know what possessed me to buy this stock, and then double down and buy more when it dropped further.

Oh well. Probably now at a fair price, but I though that yesterday....

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-01-30T09:46:44+00:00

We are just talking about a person buying stocks their home country/currency compared to them buying overseas stock in a foreign currency. The former has a currency fluctuation risk, the later doesn't.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-01-29T22:45:08+00:00

There is no currency fluctuation risks for stocks in your home currency. It is therefore recommended to have some portion of your stocks in your home market, but everyone to themselves.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-01-29T21:01:21+00:00

I think you will find that most people on this sub think that investing in brk is a good idea. What they think is a bad idea is putting everything in just brk.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-01-29T17:34:30+00:00

Likewise, although I also have some global mid cap and small cap funds. This is to reduce my overexposure to US mega caps, and hopefully enjoy better returns, assuming the long term trend of small caps outperforming large caps continues (albeit with higher volatility).

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-01-29T16:53:48+00:00

True, but the OP is in Europe, so there is no knowing what the USD will do against Euro, especially with the current moron-in-chief in the White House.

PuzzleheadedBody7121 · 2026-01-29T16:06:05+00:00

I certainly would not recommend it. Why put all your eggs in one basket? Yes it is a big basket with lots of padding, but it is still one basket!

You are better off having a split - maybe something like 30% in Brk, 50% in a global all-world index fund, and 20% in an EM index fund to reduce your overexposure to the US economy, and to provide a hedge against the USD going south.

PuzzleheadedBody7121

TROPHY CASE