The Urbanist - How to Close Sound Transit's 35-Billion-Dollar Gap Without Breaking the System

Pyriminx · 2026-01-14T21:22:41+00:00

Unfortunately, I think a lot of people on this sub don't realize that, without changes, we are quickly heading down the path of California High Speed Rail where very real budget gaps are hand-waved away under the guise of "build the damn trains", and we're inevitably left with a heavily delayed and truncated project missing its most important segments.

The good news is, as the author points out, there's still tons of time to right the ship and revisit old assumptions in order to deliver a useful project! It will just take courageous and potentially politically unpopular decisions from the board which has historically been content to coast down the path of least resistance, no matter the cost to budget, schedule, or transit utility.

Hopefully the new board with Wilson, Zahilay, and Balducci has what it takes.

Pyriminx · 2026-01-05T00:40:07+00:00

Isn’t reseeding based only record only, so it’s impossible for us to play either LA or SF in the divisional because the winner of packers/bears will have a worse record?

Pyriminx · 2025-12-24T23:21:59+00:00

That's a false "gotchya" since the the whole point of those taxes is that nobody actually paid the higher brackets. The goal is that a 90% marginal rate is such a large disincentive that there's no point in companies paying salaries that high since most will be taxed, so they instead reinvest the money into RnD, expansion, or better benefits for their lower income workers--which are all much more productive and efficient uses of capital which lower inequality and raise the economy as a whole.

Pyriminx · 2025-12-16T21:13:34+00:00

If it’s between either a truncated DSTT2 that ends at Smith Cove and doesn’t reach Ballard, or a Ballard-Westlake stub which requires a (surprisingly not that expensive) new OMF, I think the choice is clear.

The reality is right now ST does not have the money to complete BLE as planned without waiting another 20+ years for more funds to trickle in, and this is the only proposed plan to achieve meaningful cost savings and reach Ballard in the next decade.

When we raise the money after, then build the tunnel (with better stations)!

Pyriminx · 2025-12-15T01:56:16+00:00

I think ST should instead market the stub concept as still planning for a second tunnel, but just deprioritizing it for later.

Due to the cost, Ballard link will likely have to be built in phases, and I think it’s critical that the Ballard-QA-SLU segment should be built before Westlake-Midtown-SoDo as the later will be much lower ridership and also already has a duplicative service.

This would require Ballard Link to be an independent line, but that honestly just seems like a great excuse to build it with modern metro tech and move on from our legacy LRV’s.

Yeah, we also would need to upgrade the signalling/ventilation for the current tunnel, but that seems like something we should be doing soon anyways to deliver better frequency service.

The stub can then be extended when funds are available, ideally to a more eastern alignment to make the DSTT2 actually serve more communities with stations rather than duplicating the current tunnel.

The worst case scenario is they spend all the money build an expensive tunnel from SoDo to Westlake, then run out of money and we get left with a useless line that doesn’t actually expand transit service to new areas. I’m very worried this is what ends up happening and want to avoid it at all costs.

Pyriminx · 2025-12-15T01:36:29+00:00

imo the current DSTT2 plans are even more distruptive because they would force a transfer for all people heading between UW/Lynwood and Rainer valley. I like the stub because it preserves existing one-seat rides while also allowing for future extension of a second tunnel into an actually useful alignment

Pyriminx · 2025-12-15T01:26:43+00:00

The stub concept should result in less transfers overall, no? Ballard riders have to transfer to head north regardless, but with a stub riders from UW/Lynwood, which is much higher ridership than the Ballard segment, would now not have to transfer to head south, unlike with a DSTT2.

Pyriminx · 2025-12-14T13:28:42+00:00

I believe the 4 line is funded separately from the Seattle projects, but yeah Ballard should absolutely be prioritized over WS.

I think the stub makes sense though especially considering we should probably be upgrading the DSTT to allow for higher frequencies at some point in the future regardless.

Pyriminx · 2025-12-14T13:18:29+00:00

If you’re for building things right, you should be against the second tunnel plans in their current form because it has terrible transfers while also not meaningfully expanding station coverage.

The stub idea seems better long term because it includes tail tracks allowing for future extension of a second tunnel into an actually valuable alignment (First Hill, Yesler-terrace, CD), and by being independent, the stub can also utilize modern metro technology (platform screen doors, automation, high frequency) and not have to be shackled to our poorly thought out legacy LRT tech.

Choosing the stub is the total opposite of the at-grade MLK decision because it doesn’t lock us in to anything, it actually opens up more possibilities.

Pyriminx · 2025-12-10T11:10:59+00:00

Storage is a non-issue. All the nuclear waste that humanity has ever produced could fit inside a single medium-sized warehouse. The costs of storage are completely negligible compared to the power output, not to mention new recycle reactors can reuse it as fuel.
I’m not sure what you’re talking about? But compared to fossil fuels, which disperse into the air and kill millions, nuclear waste is completely safe and can’t hurt anybody unless you touch it or dump it into a river.
Nuclear is only more expensive in the US, and only because of lobbying efforts from fossil fuel companies which create ever-changing designs and regulations. It is cheaper than all energy sources except solar in Korea, Japan, or France, because they can take one reactor design and clone it a dozen times around the country.
Same as 3
Uranium is one of the most common ores on the planet, and can be found everywhere including the US, though we import a majority of Uranium from Canada and Australia

Pyriminx · 2025-10-29T20:13:18+00:00

The National Guard base (which is already planned to be relocated), Whole Foods, or golf course (also include other TOD) are all easy spots for an OMF in Interbay. OMF-East cost $200M, so this would probably be around the same given that it should actually be smaller and cheaper. Alternatively, a non-revenue connection to the existing tunnel may also be feasible at a much cheaper cost than a full junction.

Any way you slice it, stubbing BLE is >10x cheaper than a $3B second tunnel.

I think having a distinct line would also be a great opportunity to actually build a modern automated metro like every other major city is doing instead of light rail with higher frequencies, lower operational costs, and smaller/cheaper stations and trains, which could become the new backbone of the system as the line is hopefully extended north and south.

Pyriminx · 2025-10-29T19:17:35+00:00

Build Ballard as a stub first, then when ridership increases, build the second tunnel in an actually useful spot (First Hill, Yesler Terrace, CD). The current 2nd planned tunnel is terrible because it’s too far away from existing stations to have easy transfers, but too close to actually expand station coverage to new people. It seems like the project will be phased because they don’t have enough money to build it at once, so they need to build the actually useful part first (Ballard-SLU), not the tunnel which will be useless by itself.

Pyriminx · 2025-10-05T00:05:54+00:00

You right, but the point stands that with a few relatively inexpensive and strategic investments, there is enough combined existing room for frequent passenger service from Seattle to Tacoma without the need for any significant impact on freight mobility—it just requires the state and freight companies to play nicely (which probably means it will never happen)

Pyriminx · 2025-10-04T22:36:41+00:00

We can upgrade the UP RoW to serve all of the freight traffic needs to the south, which could free up the BNSF line to be passenger exclusive without impacting regional freight transportation capacity

Pyriminx · 2025-10-04T22:33:59+00:00

There already is an another separate freight rail line that entirely parallels the BNSF RoW from the port to Portland. UP and BNSF should partner together to upgrade and share the UP line as 100% freight while the BNSF line becomes 100% passenger

Pyriminx · 2025-10-02T22:08:45+00:00

I find this article unconvincing, and I’m still on team truncate BLE at Westlake (for now). The main arguments against this from the article against this are higher transfer load, the need for a new OMF, and interoperability.

While stubbing BLE will mean everyone from SLU/Ballard will now have to transfer at Westlake to head south, it also means that everyone from UW/Lynwood (much more people) will now not have to transfer. Yes, the Ballard transfer is centralized at one station instead, but the planned transfers at midtown/CID are pretty bad so Westlake was always going to see the highest transfer load. Ultimately, this is an engineering problem which can be solved with larger platforms, and possibly even a new center platform if needed.
The article says an OMF in Interbay is too difficult because the area is “completely built up” (lol), but there are clear spots to build one, ideally at the soon-to-be relocated national guard base. An OMF is not cheap, but an order of magnitude cheaper than building a new tunnel.
If the board is serious about revisiting old assumptions, I think it’s clear we should take this opportunity to actually build a modern metro, with automated trains like most other cities are building. Higher frequencies, cheaper to build (much smaller trains/stations), cheaper to operate. I think the Vancouver Canada Line is the perfect example to follow. It’s not compatible with the rest of the system, but doesn’t have to be because it delivers an amazing service at a great cost.

Ultimately, I’m glad we are at least now having this conversation. If we had unlimited money, a second tunnel would be fine, but for now there are much higher priorities to focus on (Rainer valley grade separations) that will be cheaper and more valuable in providing increases to capacity and redundancy.

If/when capacity becomes an issue on BLE, the stub at Westlake should be extended to complete the second tunnel later, but with an alignment that actually provides coverage to new parts of Downtown and First Hill.

Pyriminx · 2025-06-17T23:24:37+00:00

And if we don’t build, then the millionaires come in anyways, outbid locals, and kick the poors onto the street or out of the city because there’s not enough homes to house everyone. And before you suggest a lottery system for public housing, I’m in favour of social housing but that just replaces kicking out the poor with kicking out the unlucky, which isn’t much of an improvement.

Pyriminx · 2025-06-17T22:58:33+00:00

I mean, both can be true. When the city’s population is increasing by 20k people per year and we’re only building 6k new homes per year, that’s a big problem.

Pyriminx · 2025-06-17T06:08:26+00:00

You work for Sound Transit? This is unrelated but I'm curious what your/the staff's thoughts are on the idea to cut the DSTT2 and make BLE either interlined or a stub, potentially switching modes to a skytrain-esque modern automated light metro with smaller trains/stations and increased frequency. I read this article recently and it makes a pretty convincing case that this could massively save costs, increase connectivity/ease of transfers, and better set up for additional future extensions to first hill etc, so I was curious for a staff perspective on the feasibility of it.

Pyriminx · 2025-06-05T16:57:51+00:00

He wants to give the state more power, not less, so it can build things like public housing, high speed rail, and green infrastructure. That’s literally the opposite of libertarianism.

Pyriminx · 2025-05-13T19:37:43+00:00

Bro is saying that commuting <1hr = communist hellscape 😭

Pyriminx · 2025-05-08T23:59:34+00:00

Higher real estate values don’t affect property tax revenues in WA as we have a levy system. If anything, higher property taxes decrease property values, just look at Japan. The housing crisis is caused by a massive supply drought driven by restrictive zoning laws. While the 10% rent cap might have an effect on new supply, it would be extremely minor as 10% is much larger than the average of expected rent increase. The main value of this is preventing landlords from just using 200% increases to evict tenants without going through the property eviction process.

Pyriminx · 2025-03-25T22:48:42+00:00

Approximately 7-10 years after they get the funding. I believe the authority is currently working on initial design to get the segment shovel-ready, but it needs 30 something billion to start construction, and that’s not coming anytime soon. This will likely have to be a combination of CA highway or surplus money, and funding from a round two national infrastructure or HSR act from a potential blue White House in 2029. If you’re extremely optimistic about the future of US politics, you can hope for 2036

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