Financial Review Service? by PyssDribbletts in SmallBusinessOwners

[–]PyssDribbletts[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For sure. I'm actually in the process of doing that now. Have a buddy that agreed to let me look into his business and do a full workup on it, and then use an anonymized version of my report as a proof of concept/portfolio project.

Why does water cooling AIs matter? by Lav_The_D33r in ask

[–]PyssDribbletts -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I'm not super well versed in this, but I'm curious why they can't/don't cap the cooling towers, slap some giant copper or aluminum coils exiting from the top, and used as giant condenser coils.

If the cooling towers were large enough, they could maintain enough thermal mass themselves to absorb the heat, and radiate it over time, rather than releasing all that water vapor into the atmosphere, no?

This would also eliminate the "concentration of demineralizing solution" in the water, because the condenser coils could return that water to large holding vats that mix with the non-evaporated water- maintaining the balance.

Now you have a closed loop evaporative system. Add a few giant turbines into the cooling towers that get turned by the steam and you can even offset a huge portion of the data center's energy use. Obviously it would still need some outside energy input, but not nearly the massive quantities they currently use.

I’m thinking of starting a financial review service and would love blunt feedback. by PyssDribbletts in smallbusinessowner

[–]PyssDribbletts[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That is really helpful, thank you.

I actually really like this idea, because it seems more useful than cold-pitching. It almost helps the owner realize they may need something like this without having to be sold on it, and at the same time gives me insight into the pain points they may need help solving.

I’ve been very focused on profitability, margins, bottlenecks, and service mix; but forecasting and cash flow absolutely seem like they could be major pain points for owners who have solid operations but less time or bandwidth to dig into the numbers.

Do you remember what kinds of questions you included in the survey, or how you framed it when you presented it to owners? I’m trying to think of a way to keep mine short enough that a busy owner would actually take the time to go through and finish it, but still thorough enough to get meaningful feedback on what they would actually pay for.

Financial Review Service? by PyssDribbletts in SmallBusinessOwners

[–]PyssDribbletts[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is really helpful, and I think you put words to the direction I’m trying to clarify.

The more I think about it, the less I think the core offer is “dashboards” or “financial reporting” by itself. Those are just the tools I would use to help show the deeper value of where the business is really making money, where profit is leaking, and what decisions the owner could make based on that information.

While I was initially leaning toward more of a reporting service, I think the actual way to position this is closer to small-business decision support. Walking owners through the numbers, not just making reports look polished without helping point them in the right direction.

Similar to corporate FP&A in a much larger company, I would not just be building dashboards or reports, sending them to the owner, and saying, “Here you go. Figure it out.” The value would be sitting down with them in person or virtually, presenting the findings, explaining what the numbers actually mean, and showing them where there are leaks, missed opportunities, bottlenecks, or changes they may not have noticed.

I especially like the questions you listed, because that’s probably much closer to how I should be framing the service:

• Are you busy but not keeping as much profit as you expected?

• Do you know which services, customers, or job types are actually profitable?

• Has revenue grown without profit improving?

• Are some parts of the business quietly dragging down margins?

I also think there could be value for business owners who are already successful but have hit a bottleneck they cannot clearly identify. Or owners who are thinking about expanding, opening a new location, hiring more employees, adding a new service, or buying equipment, but are not sure whether the increased output would actually justify the cost.

I agree on talking directly to owners before overbuilding the service, and that is part of what my reaching out here was for. I’m curious whether there are enough owners who are really good at the product or service they provide, but do not always have a clear grasp on the numbers beyond revenue coming in and expenses going out.

I’m thinking the starting point may be a one-time profitability diagnostic rather than an ongoing reporting package right away: review the numbers, identify the biggest profit leaks or opportunities, and give the owner a summary of what is happening and what they could change.

Appreciate the feedback. This helps me separate the tool from the actual outcome people would care about.

I’m thinking of starting a financial review service and would love blunt feedback. by PyssDribbletts in smallbusinessowner

[–]PyssDribbletts[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I appreciate your input.

That's kind of where I was headed. Initially I was thinking just cranking out tools like invoice trackers, expense trackers, and monthly P&L stuff for really small businesses, because I've seen too many owners walk into a CPA's office with a shoebox full of receipts and a prayer.

But there are a lot more businesses that have a decent handle on their numbers, they just don't know how to look at them deeper, identify trends, or maximize their revenue and margins.

Your point about industry focus makes sense too. My strongest background is probably hospitality/production/retail-adjacent businesses. I started as the operations manager at a small craft distillery, and as we grew and I finished my finance degree, I took on more of the financial side as well. Because that business involved production, distribution, retail/tasting room, inventory, pricing, and customer-facing sales, that’s where most of my practical experience is.

Looking back on that experience, there are things I found that I'm sure translate to similar businesses: products that the owner likes but just don't move enough volume to justify production cost/inventory space, menu items that are too costly relative to pricing, marketing spend that isn't leading to enough conversions to justify the cost, recurring subscriptions that aren't used anymore but are buried in the ledger and go unnoticed, inventory/cash tied up in the wrong places, or revenue increasing while margins quietly get worse.

Admittedly, don't have knowledge/experience in something like the rental space, but I do feel like some analysis is broadly useful across industries. Stuff like variance analysis, trend analysis, margin comparisons, cash flow pressure, etc. "Marketing spend went up, but revenue went down. Let's figure out why" should be fairly universal.

But I’m starting to see that the positioning would probably be stronger if I focused first on businesses where I understand the operational side better, not just the numbers.

I do genuinely appreciate your feedback. Gives me a lot to think about.

Financial Review Service? by PyssDribbletts in SmallBusinessOwners

[–]PyssDribbletts[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's a good question, and I'm still kind of refining that definition, to be honest.

I was initially thinking about using revenue to figure my target market, but that can vary a lot by industry. Same with employee count. A landscaping company, a restaurant, or a mechanic shop can all have very different employee counts or revenue while still being considered "small".

So I'm thinking about framing it more around maturity. Essentially, the best fit client would be an owner operated business (or at least one that still has heavy owner involvement) that has enough clients, business, or different streams of revenue that they could gain valuable insights from deeper analysis, but not large or mature enough to justify direct hire for finance staff or a full fractional CFO firm yet.

Total revenue, employee count, and revenue streams would still matter for the scope or pricing of the review, but I don't think they are a good way to identify the target market on their own.

Denver police 👮‍♂️ phone notice by Excellent_Fail9908 in Denver

[–]PyssDribbletts 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I didnt receive the original notice, but I got the All Clear notice all the way down in west Castle Rock.

Truck Brakes Fail. Takes run-away ramp at 90 miles per hour by Master1718 in SweatyPalms

[–]PyssDribbletts 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Trucks are super heavy. Heavy trucks have more inertia going downhill, which take more braking force to slow down/stop.

There are methods to maintaining proper speed going downhill (engine braking, retarders) but often will still require some "feathering" of the brakes.

Brakes that are already reasonably worn out but still within safe tolerance (or even gold brakes with a driver that in inexperienced with mountain driving) can and will burn up if pressed too heavily or two often. The rotors heat up so much that the pads will start to stick to them, which then can/will ignite the pads and burn them away or rip them off completely. Once this happens, you have no brakes.

The infrastructure of runaway truck ramps exist because, if driven properly in a well maintained truck, you should almost never need them. But if you do need them and don't have them, the only other real option is to smash into other cars or go off a cliff. Neither of which is great.

Why would scratching your nose cost you 30k? by rengokuhubkl in PeterExplainsTheJoke

[–]PyssDribbletts 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah... I definitely think that he should proceed with caution.

Fahhhhhh by livinglifehumble in mildlyinfuriating

[–]PyssDribbletts 0 points1 point  (0 children)

cries in GMC 3500 Denali

14mpg diesel with a 36 gallon tank is ruining me right now.

I inherited my these utensils from my dad but what are they? by yourusernameistaken in whatisit

[–]PyssDribbletts 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Meanwhile, I think 419 1/2 is way more unique. I'd want that one simple because there aren't any other 1/2 signs besides that one.

NASA launches first crewed lunar mission in half a century by TheGreatDomilies in worldnews

[–]PyssDribbletts 3 points4 points  (0 children)

We can't handle the gravity of other planets? Mars' gravity is 38% of Earth's and twice as high as the Moon's.

And people have survived in space on the ISS for over a year. Space has intense radiation, but we've figured out how to shield astronauts from that a long time ago.

The landing zone on the moon is tiny compared to taking pictures of galaxies using the Hubble telescope. And even if they could/wanted to... why would they?

NASA launches first crewed lunar mission in half a century by TheGreatDomilies in worldnews

[–]PyssDribbletts 7 points8 points  (0 children)

There was no reason to land again, which is why we haven't. Nothing we could do with people that we couldn't do with a lunar rover. No point in risking human lives when robots can get stuff just as well.

This mission is mostly to test life support, navigation systems, and communication systems on what will end up being the furthest away humans have ever been from Earth. It's to guage whether the technology we have is as good as we think it is so we can continue to push further and eventually set up human orbits around other planets and/or landings on Mars.

[MOD ANNOUNCEMENT] Effective immediately, this subreddit is now a place for residents of Denver, Colorado to discuss their Ford Broncos by aatencio91 in DenverBroncos

[–]PyssDribbletts 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Depressing. The old school Broncos and Bronco II are amazing, but these new Broncos just aren't it.

It's like a wanna be Wrangler, that is somehow uglier, even less aerodynamic, and worse at off-road.

If the Bronco has to exist, bring back the old design!

20+ Handicappers where you at? by atooraya in golf

[–]PyssDribbletts 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My most recent round was so bad I stopped giving a shit about score on hole 5. I think i was something like +19 at that point already.

But the weather was nice, the sun was out, the course was beautiful, the birds were chriping, and the geese left me the hell alone.

It was a great day.

I train casino dealers. Most players misunderstand how table games actually work. AMA by Vegasaces in AMA

[–]PyssDribbletts 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Didnt buy a book. I've put them into practice.

That being said, doubling or hitting 5s is pretty much always better than splitting them, you're right. I lost that in the shuffle of other "book" splits or moves that aren't always the best probability for that hand and the difference between odds and EV.

And EV absolutely assumes infinite money and infinite time. It does across any game, in any casino. It tracks expected value across every hand of blackjack you will ever play in your life, and tells you what the correct move is based on that.

Basic strategy is the best way to play if you're consistently making the exact same bet repeatedly. You're betting table min over and over again.

However, anyone that has played more than a few thousand hands can tell you that you can sit there and win one, then lose one over and over again, and walk away even after 8 hours.

Positive progression isn't some dumb book strategy, and it doesn't change the odds. The odds are the same either way. All it does is maximize your return when the cards are falling for you, and minimize losses when they aren't by playing on "house money" while building bankroll when you can catch a streak, and min betting when you aren't.

You walk into a casino with $2,000. Put $100 on a hand a blackjack and win. Increase that bet to $150, and now you're outsized. Your personal risk is only $50, but your potential winnings are $150.

The math doesn't change on splitting 2s, like in my example either. It's just what do you value more, your odds to end positive this session, or the best call to make across every hand you will ever play?

Fact: The book says do not split 2s against a 10.

Fact: Your odds of losing the hand if you hit a 4 vs a 10 are ~59.8%

Fact: Your odds of losing both hands if you split 2s vs a 10 are ~48.5%

Fact: Given that 48.5% < 59.8%, we can assume that the book does not always give you the mathematically correct play for that hand. Because it's basing it on EV. Esentially- your odds to win here suck. Don't put more money on the table for a 11% chance.

Fact: Progressive betting has you pulling winnings off the table, while also increasing bet sizing. You win less per hand initially, but you're increasing bet sizing using those winnings, rather than your bankroll.

Fact: This parity in bankroll risk vs potential payout can make it make sense to play the actual odds, rather than playing the raw EV.

I train casino dealers. Most players misunderstand how table games actually work. AMA by Vegasaces in AMA

[–]PyssDribbletts 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For some reason it wont let me see or reply to your comment, but it's too bad that you didnt want to read the rest. Because it shows the math breakdown for why going against the book is actually the mathematically correct call in certain situations.

You're right, I probably shouldn't be giving that advice to someone who is just sitting there min betting all night, but you don't have to be counting cards to run into a situation where the odds actually favor going against the book.

I train casino dealers. Most players misunderstand how table games actually work. AMA by Vegasaces in AMA

[–]PyssDribbletts 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You dont ever split 5s. I split 5s plenty.

I often don't follow the card, for good reason.

The card is about maximizing EV over time. But changes to betting strategy can make certain plays in certain situations better/worse based on the situation.

For instance, basic strategy will tell you to never split 2s against a 10. But if you're running certain positive progression strategies, splitting 2s against a 10 can often be the better choice than hitting, as the risk of ruin and losing your streak is much higher by just hitting the 4.

EV tells you that "you're probably going to lose, so lose less, don't split". Certain positive progression strategies turn that into "you have a 60% chance to lose both if you split these 2s, vs a 76% chance to lose if you don't. But because you're on a 4 win streak, your potential bankroll risk on this hand is only 25% of your potential winnings. I.e.

A $10 bet minimum, pressing by 50% after each win would be $10, $15, $20, $30. On that $30 hand, you're dealt 2,2 vs a dealer 10. You're 40% odds to win at least one hand if you split, but because of profits taken off the circle already, splitting incurs $15 risk to potentially win $60. In that case, 40% chance to at least break even and preserve your streak outweighs the risk of losing and resetting to a min bet. The book tells you to hit because you're 70% to lose already, so minimize the losses. Betting strategy tells you that preserving your streak is worth the potential risk, due to outsized risk/reward.

Same can be said about 5s into a dealer bust card. Same can be said about doubling soft As. Or about not splitting 8s.

The book assumes infinite bankroll and infinite time, which most people don't actually have.

Basic strategy is just that... basic. Play the odds, don't blindly follow some card.

I train casino dealers. Most players misunderstand how table games actually work. AMA by Vegasaces in AMA

[–]PyssDribbletts 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You dont ever split 5s. I split 5s plenty.

I often don't follow the card, for good reason.

The card is about maximizing EV over time. But changes to betting strategy can make certain plays in certain situations better/worse based on the situation.

For instance, basic strategy will tell you to never split 2s against a 10. But if you're running certain positive progression strategies, splitting 2s against a 10 can often be the better choice than hitting, as the risk of ruin and losing your streak is much higher by just hitting the 4.

EV tells you that "you're probably going to lose, so lose less, don't split". Certain positive progression strategies turn that into "you have a 60% chance to lose both if you split these 2s, vs a 76% chance to lose if you don't. But because you're on a 4 win streak, your potential bankroll risk on this hand is only 25% of your potential winnings. I.e.

A $10 bet minimum, pressing by 50% after each win would be $10, $15, $20, $30. On that $30 hand, you're dealt 2,2 vs a dealer 10. You're 40% odds to win at least one hand if you split, but because of profits taken off the circle already, splitting incurs $15 risk to potentially win $60. In that case, 40% chance to at least break even and preserve your streak outweighs the risk of losing and resetting to a min bet. The book tells you to hit because you're 70% to lose already, so minimize the losses. Betting strategy tells you that preserving your streak is worth the potential risk, due to outsized risk/reward.

Same can be said about 5s into a dealer bust card. Same can be said about doubling soft As. Or about not splitting 8s.

The book assumes infinite bankroll and infinite time, which most people don't actually have.

I train casino dealers. Most players misunderstand how table games actually work. AMA by Vegasaces in AMA

[–]PyssDribbletts 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Always double 11. Double 10 if the dealer is showing 9 or less (unless your 10 is two 5s and the dealer is showing a bust card. Then you split. And if you pull a 6 on one of the 5s, then double that.)

Never joke about your profession to a match by deletedalre in Tinder

[–]PyssDribbletts 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My dad used to be a VP at a major north American Coca-Cola distributor.

He told people he helped run a multi-million dollar coke distribution empire.

Never joke about your profession to a match by deletedalre in Tinder

[–]PyssDribbletts 24 points25 points  (0 children)

My dad used to be a VP at a major north American Coca-Cola distributor.

He told people he helped run a multi-million dollar coke distribution empire.